Can you guess why the Cajuns' RPI increased?

[GoneGolfin]

_ Southern's WPct vs UNO's WPct _

Yes. Now why is this significant?

Folks, if you understand all of this, you will understand the RPI.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ The fact that SU has a better record than UNO and that's reflected in our OWP of our RPI. _

Precisely.

But what about Southern's effect on the Cajuns' OOWP (as compared to UNO)?

And why does Southern have a much lower RPI than UNO?

Brian

[wcd35]

Its significant because the RPI factors in record vs D1 not a teams RPI into the formula. Southern, though likely an equal team to UNO, has a much better record. Therefore, our opponent's win percentage goes up by playing a poor team (SU) rather than down by playing an equally poor team (UNO). And that's 50% of the formula

[Rebel02]

_ Precisely.

But what about Southern's effect on the Cajuns' OOWP (as compared to UNO)?

And why does Southern have a much lower RPI than UNO?

Brian _

Could it have to do with the fact that SU has played fewer games than UNO?

[wcd35]

_ Could it have to do with the fact that SU has played fewer games than UNO? _

Probably that too

[cajun1300]

It's all about symmetry. The RPI algorithm likes the fact that the Cajuns have now won 2/3 of all games played (32-16) and 2/3 of conference games (16-8)

/sarcoff

[GoneGolfin]

_ Its significant because the RPI factors in record vs D1 not a teams RPI into the formula. Southern, though likely an equal team to UNO, has a much better record. Therefore, our opponent's win percentage goes up by playing a poor team (SU) rather than down by playing an equally poor team (UNO). And that's 50% of the formula _

Yes, the key is our Opponents WP (OWP). Since this is weighted twice as much as OOWP, Southern's dismal OWP does not hurt us as much. But obviously it kills Southern's own RPI as this is 50% of their calculation.

However, with UNO, their dismal record kills our OWP ... but their dismal record has more to do with the much tougher schedule they have played (when compared to Southern). This is reflected in their OWP (which is weighted less in the Cajuns' OOWP).

This is also why South Alabama's win over Auburn last night really does not help the Cajuns any more than if they had beaten a team with the same winning % ... say a #115 RPI team (Indiana State). South Alabama's opponent last night is included in the Cajuns' OOWP calculation. But the formula does not go any deeper. It does not factor OOOWP.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Could it have to do with the fact that SU has played fewer games than UNO? _

No. RPI is calculated using winning percentages. The # of games is not a factor.

Brian

[wcd35]

So you could manipulate the schedule by bringing in better teams in bad conferences since they will likely not be as good of an opponent, but would still give you a high number for your OWP.

In moderation of course, you do want to balance junk RPI scheduling with high profile team scheduling in order to get record vs top 50, 75, etc as well as challenging your team.

[CajunRed]

Brian...

I came in late... just read through all of this... and threw up my head was hurting so much!!

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian...

I came in late... just read through all of this... and threw up my head was hurting so much!! _

LOL. I will buy you a beer at the game this weekend.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

So you could manipulate the schedule by bringing in better teams in bad conferences since they will likely not be as good of an opponent, but would still give you a high number for your OWP.

Yes ... for the lesser competitive part of your schedule, you want to bring in teams that have a decent W/L record that was built against a weak schedule. Your RPI will overweight that team's W/L record while underweighting that team's strength of schedule. Of course you will also want to schedule those games at home. :-)

You want to avoid the teams that are expected to be down and have poor W/L records (or are likely to have under .500 W/L records) because they have a difficult schedule. Your RPI will underweight that team's difficult schedule and overweight its poor W/L record.

In moderation of course, you do want to balance junk RPI scheduling with high profile team scheduling in order to get record vs top 50, 75, etc as well as challenging your team. _

Absolutely. You supplement with high RPI teams that will not hurt you if you lose. Sprinkle in some high RPI road games for potential RPI bonuses.

I am available for schedule consulting if Tony needs me.

Brian (will work for beer)

[CajunRed]

_ LOL. I will buy you a beer at the game this weekend.

Brian _

Ha!! Will hold you to it!

[cajunhawk]

Someone get David Walker on the phone and tell him to hire Brian as a consultant for scheduling purposes. I take myself to be a pretty intelligent individual. I graduated college without really trying. But this post has me totally confused and lost. I once tried to read Stephen Hawkings Origins of the Universe and was in a stupor the entire time. Same thing here. Brian you are a statistical beast. Im glad I deal with tax returns and whole numbers for a living. Dollars and cents baby.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Ha!! Will hold you to it! _

But first you will need to read my last three pieces on monetary policy, the Treasury/Fed relationship w/respect to "on the run treasury issues", and a balance sheet/exit strategy update.

There will be a quiz at the end.

"Fed Exit Strategy"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editor...009/0729a.html

""Lending" a Helping Hand"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/0804.html

"Fed Exit Strategy? (An Update)"
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2010/0212.html

Brian