Ragin' Dave's Late season Baseball State Rankings

[RaginDave]

1--LSU--But slipping fast, LSU is barely holding on to a #1 seed, they need to right the ship in a hurry if they expect to host a regional. They took 1/3 from Vandy this weekend, but the remaining schedule is not easy.

2--LOUISIANA--Hottest team in the state and possibly one of the hottest in the nation. UL has won 12 straight conference games and 18 of the last 21 overall, including a sweep of Middle Tennessee and a weekday game vs McNeese State. Biggest upcoming opponent is WKU at the Tigue. Still in the hunt for a #2 seed, but needs to finish strong to guarentee a NCAA birth.

3--SLU--Another team that was slipping, but had a nice sweep of SHSU this weekend. They have 6 tough conference games left and no OOC games on the schedule. They have SFA and Nw St to finish the season. Still in the hunt for an at large bid, but this will take a strong finish and some help.

4--NW St--Another team that was steadily slipping down the RPI trail. They have lost 8 of their last 12 and have seen there RPI slip from the mid 50's to the low 70's in the last couple of weeks. They have a couple of big games left, but it is looking more and more like a tournament championship is there only chance.

5--Tulane--Another team slipping as of late as there RPI has fallen to the upper 70's. They had a nice weekend as they took 2/3 from a good Houston team, but I think they will have to run the table including a win vs LSU to have any outside shot at an at large, it looks like a conference tourny title is there only option.

6--McNeese--One of the hotter teams in the state until the lost 2 of 3 vs Texas State this weekend, they were on a 6 game winning streak until this weekend. There RPI has bounced up and down, and they have made a nice run, but they are going to need to run the conference tourny for any shot.

7--La Tech---What an up and down year for LTU. They in the same week have scored 20+ runs and had 20+ runs scored against them. They are on a 4 game winning streak after sweeping Sacramento State they are averaging 9 runs a game offensively and giving up 8.2 runs a game defensively. The good the bad and the ugly. Rough season for Coach Sim.

8--Nicholls--Interesting team, they have had some good wins and some bad losses this year. After winning 4 straight and 7 of 8 including wins vs USA and SLU, they then proceded to lose 5 straight and 3 vs teams with an RPI of 155

9--Centenary--The last year in D-1 for them, and it could be a good one, there is a strong possibility that the Gents could win the Summit League. They are sitting in 2nd place and did not play this weekend due to the fact that WIU had a death on there team.

10--ULM--They have lost 8 of their last 10 and I dont foresee it getting any better to finish the year, they have a chance this weekend vs UALR, but after that Nw State adn UL finish the schedule.

11--UNO--played hard for 3 games vs UL and defeated LSU during the week prior, but it has been a long season for a team in its last year in the SBC. With Middle and Creighton left on the schedule, wins will be few and far between.

12--Southern--Fighting for a conference championship, this has not been a very good year for a team that is traditionally better then they have been this year. I would be suprised if Southern wins the SWAC tourney, but don't count them out.

13--Grambling--Same as always, They have had this view for at least 5 years or more.

[GoneGolfin]

_ 1--LSU--But slipping fast, LSU is barely holding on to a #1 seed, they need to right the ship in a hurry if they expect to host a regional. They took 1/3 from Vandy this weekend, but the remaining schedule is not easy.

If the season were to end today, in no way do I see the NCAA awarding LSU a #1 seed. They are a #2 seed. The reasons ...

Apart from LSU not having an overall #1 seed resume ...

LSU is 12-12 in conference and in 7th place. Both Auburn and Vanderbilt have considerably better #1 seed resumes than LSU. But these would be the 5th and 6th #1 seeds from the SEC. The NCAA Selection committee has awarded (6) #1 seeds from a conference only once (2004), but strangely never 5 and certainly not 7.

Some other support ... the NCAA has moved in recent years to having all #1 seeds host, unless they can feasibly award a host regional up north (then they will allow a #2 seed to host). One exception was Coastal Carolina going to Arizona State five years ago in 2005. But that was five years ago. The only other exception to this in the last five years was the Fayetteville regional in 2006. Arkansas hosted as a #2 seed over Oklahoma State only because Stillwater had a serious hotel problem that surfaced late in the selection process (Oklahoma State was already a #1 seed with Arkansas the #2 seed in Stillwater). A single conference has hosted more than four regionals twice. Once in this fluke year where the host regional had to be moved from Stillwater to Fayetteville (2006) and once in 2004 (also the SEC). It could happen this year, but I think the max would be five if it happens. LSU is 7th in the SEC pecking order. The NCAA Selection committee would be lit up by the press and analysts if they pulled such a stunt.

Thus, I think that if LSU hosts, they must be a #1 seed and to be a #1 seed they must host. I think the days are probably gone where a team from a power conference hosts as a #2 seed. They have plenty #1 seed options from those conferences and they are always looking to spread regionals around.

All of that said, LSU still has a chance to move up the pecking order. But with Auburn 3 games ahead of LSU with 6 to play ... and Auburn owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, LSU has its work cut out for them and needs help.

Brian