RPI 5/5/10

[GoneGolfin]

The following is Paul Kislanko's (SEBaseball.com) RPI from 5/5 ...

The first two numbers are the Adjusted RPI ordinal rank and the Adjusted RPI itself. The trailing two numbers are the Original (Base) RPI ordinal rank and the Original (Base) RPI itself.

26 0.5854 Virginia Tech 25 0.5854
27 0.5854 Kentucky 29 0.5812
28 0.5844 North Carolina 26 0.5844
29 0.5833 Oregon 28 0.5821
30 0.5806 San Diego 31 0.5758
31 0.5778 Pittsburgh 30 0.5778
32 0.5774 Western Kentucky 37 0.5714
33 0.5770 New Mexico 42 0.5686
34 0.5750 Florida Atlantic 32 0.5738
35 0.5740 Louisiana 33 0.5728
36 0.5727 College of Charleston 34 0.5727
37 0.5725 Texas A&M 35 0.5725
38 0.5720 Stanford 36 0.5720 0 0
39 0.5715 Texas State 40 0.5697
40 0.5712 Appalachian State 38 0.5712
41 0.5711 The Citadel 39 0.5711
42 0.5688 Oregon State 41 0.5688
43 0.5681 Liberty 43 0.5681
44 0.5669 Texas Tech 44 0.5669
45 0.5654 Tennessee 49 0.5612
46 0.5651 Kansas State 46 0.5621
47 0.5636 Washington 45 0.5624
48 0.5632 UC Irvine 48 0.5614
49 0.5615 Baylor 47 0.5615
50 0.5600 Southeastern Louisiana 52 0.5558

For those that are wondering, here is the situation with the Privateers ...

211 0.4667 New Orleans 215 0.4649

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

I know we want FAU to beat USA this weekend to knock USA out of the top spot but now that FAU's RPI is dropping back to us and if they were to lose the series to USA and we handle business and sweep UNO we should both leap FAU in the standings and RPI and other than FAU beating us 2/3 in the regular season we may would get selected over them for an at-large. I don't get me wrong I am still pulling for FAU this weekend I just saying it could still work out ok the other way.

Those 4 series we lost at the beginning of conference we can make up for with a win against those same teams in the conference tournament and go 2-2 head up against them then the selection committee will not use that against us and look at RPI and conference standing which should be fairly strong.

[CajunRed]

_ The following is Paul Kislanko's (SEBaseball.com) RPI from 5/5 ...

The first two numbers are the Adjusted RPI ordinal rank and the Adjusted RPI itself. The trailing two numbers are the Original (Base) RPI ordinal rank and the Original (Base) RPI itself.

26 0.5854 Virginia Tech 25 0.5854
27 0.5854 Kentucky 29 0.5812
28 0.5844 North Carolina 26 0.5844
29 0.5833 Oregon 28 0.5821
30 0.5806 San Diego 31 0.5758
31 0.5778 Pittsburgh 30 0.5778
32 0.5774 Western Kentucky 37 0.5714
33 0.5770 New Mexico 42 0.5686
34 0.5750 Florida Atlantic 32 0.5738
35 0.5740 Louisiana 33 0.5728
36 0.5727 College of Charleston 34 0.5727
37 0.5725 Texas A&M 35 0.5725
38 0.5720 Stanford 36 0.5720 0 0
39 0.5715 Texas State 40 0.5697
40 0.5712 Appalachian State 38 0.5712
41 0.5711 The Citadel 39 0.5711
42 0.5688 Oregon State 41 0.5688
43 0.5681 Liberty 43 0.5681
44 0.5669 Texas Tech 44 0.5669
45 0.5654 Tennessee 49 0.5612
46 0.5651 Kansas State 46 0.5621
47 0.5636 Washington 45 0.5624
48 0.5632 UC Irvine 48 0.5614
49 0.5615 Baylor 47 0.5615
50 0.5600 Southeastern Louisiana 52 0.5558

For those that are wondering, here is the situation with the Privateers ...

211 0.4667 New Orleans 215 0.4649

Brian _

Brian... this is the time of year when your value takes a serious spike UP!

Congratulations on being a new dad! Way to go, Preston!!

CajunRed

[ManAboutTown]

_ I know we want FAU to beat USA this weekend to knock USA out of the top spot but now that FAU's RPI is dropping back to us and if they were to lose the series to USA and we handle business and sweep UNO we should both leap FAU in the standings and RPI and other than FAU beating us 2/3 in the regular season we may would get selected over them for an at-large. I don't get me wrong I am still pulling for FAU this weekend I just saying it could still work out ok the other way.

Those 4 series we lost at the beginning of conference we can make up for with a win against those same teams in the conference tournament and go 2-2 head up against them then the selection committee will not use that against us and look at RPI and conference standing which should be fairly strong. _

Brian, JTown has an interesting point here. Any thoughts?

Congrats on the addition to the family.

[BirdofParadise]

_ I know we want FAU to beat USA this weekend to knock USA out of the top spot but now that FAU's RPI is dropping back to us and if they were to lose the series to USA and we handle business and sweep UNO we should both leap FAU in the standings and RPI and other than FAU beating us 2/3 in the regular season we may would get selected over them for an at-large. I don't get me wrong I am still pulling for FAU this weekend I just saying it could still work out ok the other way.

Those 4 series we lost at the beginning of conference we can make up for with a win against those same teams in the conference tournament and go 2-2 head up against them then the selection committee will not use that against us and look at RPI and conference standing which should be fairly strong. _

JTown you have to remember that RPI isn't everything. While it is a factor, there are TONS more factors that are considered.

And, remember, you're not only competing with other SBC schools for a bid, you're also competing with an at large pool from across the country. And also remember, that FAU won the season series with us.

Let's make sure USA isn't a factor. If that happens, I feel good about us getting in.

[BirdofParadise]

_ JTown you have to remember that RPI isn't everything. While it is a factor, there are TONS more factors that are considered.

And, remember, you're not only competing with other SBC schools for a bid, you're also competing with an at large pool from across the country. And also remember, that FAU won the season series with us.

Let's make sure USA isn't a factor. If that happens, I feel good about us getting in. _

[GoneGolfin]

I know we want FAU to beat USA this weekend to knock USA out of the top spot but now that FAU's RPI is dropping back to us and if they were to lose the series to USA and we handle business and sweep UNO we should both leap FAU in the standings and RPI and other than FAU beating us 2/3 in the regular season we may would get selected over them for an at-large. I don't get me wrong I am still pulling for FAU this weekend I just saying it could still work out ok the other way.

Those 4 series we lost at the beginning of conference we can make up for with a win against those same teams in the conference tournament and go 2-2 head up against them then the selection committee will not use that against us and look at RPI and conference standing which should be fairly strong.

Can we leap FAU in the standings? Could we even position ourselves ahead of FAU in the NCAA selection pecking order (one does not necessarily imply the other)? Certainly. South Alabama beating FAU this weekend would not be the worst thing in the world (nothing like losing the series to Western Kentucky next weekend). But it is not the most optimal scenario for the Cajuns' chances at an at-large bid. This is why I take the position that I am.

Let's say that you are given the following challenge with an at-large bid on the line. You must select one to happen. You are obviously going to go with the choice with the highest probability of success. Here are your choices ...

1) South Alabama loses 2/3 to FAU and falls from the top spot in the Sun Belt. As a result, they do not win the conference title when it is all said and done.

2) South Alabama wins 2/3 from FAU and cements itself as the Sun Belt leader. While they still have FIU (road) and Troy (home) to play, they now have the clear inside track to the title as they are two games ahead of FAU in the loss column and also possess the tiebreaker. FAU also still has FIU to play. South Alabama is still one game ahead of Louisiana in the loss column (even if the Cajuns sweep UNO) and have the tiebreaker over the Cajuns.

Now, with scenario #1 above, the Cajuns clearly benefit and would be higher in the NCAA selection pecking order than South Alabama (provided the Cajuns take care of their own business in a reasonable fashion). This is mostly due to the fact that there would be a wide delta in their respective RPIs. But there are other factors as well ... such as a significant difference in Non-Conference RPI.

With scenario #2 above, South Alabama is going to the NCAA Tournament provided they follow through and hold their lead in the Sun Belt. I think that a conference title in the 6th best RPI conference is going to get you an invitation if your RPI is 65 or higher. Their RPI would probably be near 50 if they were to win the regular season. Meanwhile, UL finishing ahead of FAU in the NCAA selection pecking order is still quite a dicey situation. While their RPIs would be similar (even if the Cajuns' are a bit higher), there are other factors in FAU's favor ...

- NC RPI is slightly better than that of Louisiana. FAU also has a chance to make some serious hay here against Florida.
- Considerably better record against the RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 75 (RPI Top 100 also).
- They have the season head-to-head edge. Even if the Cajuns were to beat them in a single game in the conference tournament, the season series is only even. But there is a reasonable chance they do not even play in the conference tournament. I would not want to hang my hat here.

Yes, the Cajuns could finish ahead of both Florida Atlantic and South Alabama in the eyes of the NCAA (this would require a conference title). But the Cajuns' establishing themselves ahead of South Alabama is the easier road of the two.

Obviously this weekend could bring some serious changes to the situation. We evaluate those once the weekend is complete and move from there.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian, JTown has an interesting point here. Any thoughts?

Congrats on the addition to the family. _

Thanks foofoo. See comment above.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian... this is the time of year when your value takes a serious spike UP!

Congratulations on being a new dad! Way to go, Preston!!

Thanks CajunRed. My bill is in the mail.

Brian (not a new Dad ... but a Dad to a third child and first son)

[J-Town Cajun]

The NCAA has it's latest RPI weekly update datedt 5/4/10.

UL came in at #36.

[GoneGolfin]

_ The NCAA has it's latest RPI weekly update datedt 5/4/10.

UL came in at #36. _

I mentioned this on Tuesday. There have been changes since then (the NCAA reports the RPI on Tuesday's and takes into account games through the prior Sunday) ... hence my updates on 5/5 and 5/6. The Cajuns have an Adjusted RPI ordinal ranking of 35 after yesterday's games.

Brian

[J-Town Cajun]

_ I mentioned this on Tuesday. There have been changes since then (the NCAA reports the RPI on Tuesday's and takes into account games through the prior Sunday) ... hence my updates on 5/5 and 5/6. The Cajuns have an Adjusted RPI ordinal ranking of 35 after yesterday's games.

Brian _

Thanks Brian, I do realize your daily RPI update is very accurate and appreciated. I did not realize you posted the weekly updated RPI from the NCAA earlier. I was just posting what I had looked up and it is the official RPI. I also do realize it is only updated to the previous Sunday's game.

Again thanks for your daily updates, I look forward to them.