Only a few showers have developed through midday, and the severe weather is remaining north of us where a tornado watch is in effect for the Shreveport area.
Rain was trying to develop early this morning in the offshore waters, and the thinking was maybe this was going to be the start of a thunderstorm outbreak. After reviewing the sounding information (weather balloon) from the Lake Charles NWS, we're seeing an inversion that may inhibit development at least through the early afternoon. An inversion is a layer of warmer air above cooler air. Warm, moist air rises from the surface and continues to rise as long as the surrounding air is cooler. But with an inversion in the way, the rising air stops. Kind of like a helium filled balloon hitting the ceiling. If the air can't continue to rise, then rain, or thunderstorms can't develop.
In eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana, that inversion or "cap" is absent and the storms are firing. Once the cap is broken, there's nothing to stop the air from rising to it's full potential. And with winds coming in from different directions at different levels of height, these storms can become severe.
Potentially, there is a good chance for widespread severe weather from Missouri, to east Texas today, and a significant tornado outbreak is possible tonight and tomorrow across northern Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Some are saying this will be the largest severe weather outbreak so far this year.
For the rest of the day, I'm still rolling with a 30% chance for isolated thunderstorms until sunset. I think conditions will calm down this evening. After midnight, storms will be developing ahead of our cold front, so the risk for severe weather here in Acadiana is more likely tomorrow morning. The front will move through around midday, with rains ending early in the afternoon. Sunshine will return for most of the afternoon Saturday, and Sunday looks pleasant. For the latest Power Doppler 3000 images, click here. Or if you're going to be out at the Festival this weekend, you can find our "Mobile Page" here, and our iPhone app can be downloaded at the App Store.

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