Showers were trying to develop early this morning in the offshore waters, and the thinking was maybe this was going to be a thunderstorm outbreak for the mid part of the day. Now that we have the sounding information (weather balloon) from the Lake Charles NWS, we're seeing an inversion that may inhibit development for now. An inversion is a layer of warmer air above cooler air. Warm, moist air rises from the surface and continues to rise as long as the surrounding air is cooler. But with an inversion in the way, the rising air stops. Kind of like a helium filled balloon hitting the ceiling. If the air can't continue to rise, then rain, or thunderstorms can't develop.
In eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana, that inversion is weakening. Already some storms are developing and breaking through. Once that inversion, or sometimes called a "cap" is broken, there's nothing to stop the air from rising to it's full potential. And with winds coming in from different directions at different levels of height, these storms can become severe. The Storm Prediction Center is looking to put up a Tornado Watch for the ArkLaTex region in the next few hours because of this situation developing to our north.
Potentially, there is a good chance for widespread severe weather from Missouri, to east Texas today, and a significant tornado outbreak is possible tonight and tomorrow across northern Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Some are saying this will be the largest severe weather outbreak so far this year.
As for our forecast, I'm still rolling with a 30% for isolated thunderstorms from late this morning until sunset. I think conditions will calm down this evening. After midnight, storms will be developing ahead of our cold front, so the risk for severe weather here in Acadiana is possible tomorrow morning. The front will move through around midday, with rains ending early in the afternoon. Sunshine will return for most of the afternoon Saturday, and Sunday looks pleasant. For the latest Power Doppler 3000 images, click here. Or if you're going to be out at the Festival this weekend, you can find our "Mobile Page" here, and our iPhone app can be downloaded at the App Store.

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