By my estimation ...

[GoneGolfin]

... The Cajuns can drop three more games (finish 15-3) and conclude the regular season with an RPI in the mid 30s. Thus, every game is important. But special significance will be placed on games that will help get the Cajuns' record vs.the RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 75 where it needs to be. These are the two most important RPI categories for a team contending for an at-large (focus is on the RPI Top 25 and Top 50 for teams contending for a national or #1 seed). The NCAA will also look at the RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 100. But performance against "the field" is paramount.

This means that the seven games vs. Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, and Tulane will have special significance (six are at home). But all are important. The Cajun postseason begins now.

Brian

[wcd35]

What has a bigger affect, losing to a 150-180 range team or beating a higher team like WKU?

Basically, which games would we be ok with losing?

[GoneGolfin]

_ What has a bigger affect, losing to a 150-180 range team or beating a higher team like WKU?

Basically, which games would we be ok with losing? _

Think of the remaining schedule as a W-L % against a single team with an RPI that is the average of all remaining games. This is how it will work out in the end as far as RPI is concerned. Thus, if the average RPI rank over the remaining 18 games is 115, in terms of RPI rank it will be as if the Cajuns played 18 games against a team with an RPI rank of 115. Of course, it is not really RPI rank that is important ... it is the RPI itself (a %). But referring to RPI rank is close enough to drive the point home and is easier for most to comprehend.

The one exception is where bonuses and penalties come into play. In our case, the Cajuns can earn a bonus by beating Tulane (should they remain in the Top 75 Base RPI). There are no potential penalties on the schedule at this time (I do not expect there to be). I also do not see any other potential bonuses on the horizon. If Northwestern State does not maintain its Top 75 Base RPI (currently #61), the Cajuns will lose a bonus of .0012 in the RPI (enough to drop them two spots in the RPI rankings at this time).

But as I said, the WKU, Middle, and Tulane games have a special significance when the NCAA Selection Committee evaluates the Cajuns' resume.

Hence, if I could choose the three games for the Cajuns to lose ... it would be 1) any non-conference game other than Tulane (Cajuns need to move up in the Sun Belt standings), then 2) any game other than WKU, Middle, and Tulane (Cajuns need to beef their record vs. RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 75).

Brian

[wcd35]

Thanks for the explanation!

[cajunhawk]

So we need to sweep this weekend, which is highly possible but this is baseball so you never know. Then we pretty have to beat Tulane. Looking back at the schedule those close games we lost, argh! The extra inning error fest against Miami(OH), the one run loss to the kitties in Refineryville, and the one that hurt the most, the back to back 3-4 losses to FIU, a team we should have swept at home. Turn those games around we have a higher margin for error plus an RPI bonus for beating ole spaghetti sauces team. No one to blame but ourselves. This team has been clutch lately and man we need that train to keep chuggin along. Its nice to even be talking about this. Good for the soul.

[wcd35]

_ So we need to sweep this weekend, which is highly possible but this is baseball so you never know. Then we pretty have to beat Tulane. Looking back at the schedule those close games we lost, argh! The extra inning error fest against Miami(OH), the one run loss to the kitties in Refineryville, and the one that hurt the most, the back to back 3-4 losses to FIU, a team we should have swept at home. Turn those games around we have a higher margin for error plus an RPI bonus for beating ole spaghetti sauces team. No one to blame but ourselves. This team has been clutch lately and man we need that train to keep chuggin along. Its nice to even be talking about this. Good for the soul. _

The 4-3 losses were FAU, but yea. To me the most painful was the one on Sunday vs USA when we were up by like 7 or something ridiculous only to give it right back and lose in extra innings.

[J-Town Cajun]

_ Think of the remaining schedule as a W-L % against a single team with an RPI that is the average of all remaining games. This is how it will work out in the end as far as RPI is concerned. Thus, if the average RPI rank over the remaining 18 games is 115, in terms of RPI rank it will be as if the Cajuns played 18 games against a team with an RPI rank of 115. Of course, it is not really RPI rank that is important ... it is the RPI itself (a %). But referring to RPI rank is close enough to drive the point home and is easier for most to comprehend.

The one exception is where bonuses and penalties come into play. In our case, the Cajuns can earn a bonus by beating Tulane (should they remain in the Top 75 Base RPI). There are no potential penalties on the schedule at this time (I do not expect there to be). I also do not see any other potential bonuses on the horizon. If Northwestern State does not maintain its Top 75 Base RPI (currently #61), the Cajuns will lose a bonus of .0012 in the RPI (enough to drop them two spots in the RPI rankings at this time).

But as I said, the WKU, Middle, and Tulane games have a special significance when the NCAA Selection Committee evaluates the Cajuns' resume.

Hence, if I could choose the three games for the Cajuns to lose ... it would be 1) any non-conference game other than Tulane (Cajuns need to move up in the Sun Belt standings), then 2) any game other than WKU, Middle, and Tulane (Cajuns need to beef their record vs. RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 75).

Brian _

Finishing higer in conference is more important as long as our RPI is decent. But simple math will tell you that losing non-conference games will hurt your RPI much more than losing conference games. So I would say in order of importance:
1. Like Brian says we must beef up our Top 50 against W-L record. So beating Tulane, Mid Tenn, and W. Kentucky.
2. Finish in the top 3-4 in the SBC regular season and win at least 3 games in the tourney.
3. Win out on our non-conference games to continue strengthening both our and the SBC's RPI.
4. If we are to lose games it needs to be to teams behind us in the SBC standings that does not effect our standing against other teams.

[GoneGolfin]

But simple math will tell you that losing non-conference games will hurt your RPI much more than losing conference games.

This is not correct. As I explained earlier ... if the Cajuns go, say, 14-4 down the stretch, it does not matter whether the losses are to conference teams or non-conference teams ... the RPI will be the same, except in the case of a bonus or penalty RPI game. The Tulane game is a potential bonus game (but a small bonus).

Brian

[raginsaints]

I do think our pitching is good enough to win the SBC Tourny if the RPI isn't where it needs to be.

[J-Town Cajun]

_ This is not correct. As I explained earlier ... if the Cajuns go, say, 14-4 down the stretch, it does not matter whether the losses are to conference teams or non-conference teams ... the RPI will be the same, except in the case of a bonus or penalty RPI game. The Tulane game is a potential bonus game (but a small bonus).

Brian _

Losing to conference teams will do more to strengthen your SOS and your opponents SOS than losing to non-conference. This is how the SEC gets 8 teams into regionals every year, they win most of their non conference games. At the end of the year every conference goes .500 within its own conference. So alot has to do with what you do in non-conference.

Now I do agree the Cajuns do not have much room to lose many games and where they finish in conference (top 3 to 4) is very important.

[Dad04]

We dug a hole early. Extraordinary teams can do extraordinary things. We need to do something extraordinary to play in June.

[CajunProud]

_ I do think our pitching is good enough to win the SBC Tourny if the RPI isn't where it needs to be. _

I hope you are right, but our history in the SBC tournament is not good at all.

[LifeTimeCajun]

I do think our pitching is good enough to win the SBC Tourny if the RPI isn't where it needs to be.

Pitching is good enough for 3games for sure. After that in a tournament type situation everyone normally is in the same boat. It takes an unlikely person to step up and have an outstanding game. But at that point in a tourney, usually hitters have to swing it the rest of the way.

igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ Losing to conference teams will do more to strengthen your SOS and your opponents SOS than losing to non-conference. This is how the SEC gets 8 teams into regionals every year, they win most of their non conference games.

No. The SEC earns a healthy number of bids each year because they have teams with high RPIs ... due to the schedule that they play. Due to the nature of baseball and the imperfections in the RPI formula, it is easier to build a strong RPI when you have a stronger schedule. But the RPI does not distinguish conference from non-conference, except in the case of certain RPI bonuses and penalties for non-conference games.

At the end of the year every conference goes .500 within its own conference. So alot has to do with what you do in non-conference.

You misunderstand how the RPI works. Let me try another angle of explanation.

The Base RPI formula is broken into three weighted components ...

1) 25% (Winning %)
2) 50% (Opponents' winning %)
3) 25% (Opponents' opponents' winning %)

Thus, when I say that it is irrelevant whether the four losses (used in this example) come from conference teams or non-conference teams, this is so because of two things ...

1) #1 above (winning %) does not change. That is, the winning % will be the same.

2) The SOS (strength of schedule) measured in #2 and #3 above also does not change. All you did was swap a win/loss with two of your opponents. Your opponents' overall winning % did not change.

Thus, the Base RPI will be the same in all permutations of the 14-4 record.

As a simple example, let's say that we changed the one FAU win to a loss ... but offset that loss with a win against Miami-Ohio (now a sweep of the series). The Cajun RPI would not change.

#1 Cajun winning % is unaffected
#2 Aggregate opponents' winning percentage is unaffected

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Pitching is good enough for 3games for sure. After that in a tournament type situation everyone normally is in the same boat. It takes an unlikely person to step up and have an outstanding game. But at that point in a tourney, usually hitters have to swing it the rest of the way.
igeaux.mobi _

I think that if the Cajuns' were to get through the first three games, Osborne would be brought back for the Championship game.

Brian