I know it is very early to be thinking about at-large NCAA bids, but I had some time on my hands this morning to do some digging.

I do not believe that any team whose current RPI is below 60 has any chance at all. That number could easily be 50, but I am working off the 60 number.

There are 31 conferences, so 31 bids are locked in already. That leaves 33 at large. I think it likely that the P4 have 29 of the 33 at large locked up [SEC 12, ACC 7, Big 12 6 and Big 10 4]. That leaves only 4 available at large bids for bubble teams. There are 6 P4 teams that I don't believe are locks that have RPI of 60 or better. Of those 6, I believe 3 [UNC 47, Utah 55 and Indiana 53] have enough SOS in their remaining games to be in play. I do not expect any of them to win enough of their remaining games to get to 40, which I think will be the bottom RPI to get an at large.

The American has 3 Top 60 teams. South Florida is at 39, but has only 1 remaining game against a top 50 team. Charlotte [51] and FAU [56] also do not have enough remaining games against top 50 teams to move up to 40 or better. I do not believe any AAC team will get an at large.

CUSA also has 3 top 60 teams. Jacksonville State [38] has 5 remaining top 50 games, and has a chance at an at large if they do not win the conference. No one else in CUSA can get to 40.

The Mountain West has 2 top 60 teams. Grand Canyon [29] should win the conference, but if Nevada wins, GCU might still be 40 or better and in play for an at large.

The Southland has 2 top 60 teams. I am not sure if McNeese can stay above 40, but if they win the SLU series and beat 2 of 3 of aTm, UL and TSAB, they should; even though the rest of their remaining schedule is very weak. I do not believe SLU can get to 40.

The Sun Belt has 5 top 60 teams. Those 5 have more remaining top 50 games than all other non-P4 top 60 teams combined. I believe it is possible for the conference to get 3 teams in, though 2 is more likely. Louisiana has 12 games remaining against current top 50 opponents, 9 of those being conference games. If we can manage to go 8-4 against that group and take care of business with our sub-50 RPI games, we could be as high as the mid-30's in RPI and
pretty much assure ourselves of getting in the tournament.

Like I said, it is pretty early, but I am optimistic.