The Case Against Small Ball

[ragin50]

I am OK with bunting with a runner on second and zero outs or runners on first and second and no outs. This allows you a greater chance to score without benefit of a hit. Obviously the next batters in the lineup should help determine the decision. I don't like bunting with a runner on first and no outs or one out.

I respectfully disagree. I think it's even worse to bunt with a runner on second and no outs. After a leadoff double, don't give up an out to get the runner to third, when she's likely to score on a hit anyway. I've always hated that play. It seems like you're resolved to play for one run instead of a big inning.

[RoarMan]

Just a comparison. From 2000 to 2024, the Cajuns averaged 16 sacrifice bunts a year. This year they have surpassed that number. Last year they had 80. That led Division I, Division II and Division III in sacrifice bunts.

Last year, they were forced to do it because players could not hit for power. This year, with the addition of Coach Shipman, the power is there. But for some reason, players with the ability to drive the ball, are being asked to sacrifice bunt.

As I have stated previously, analytics and statistics show more runs are scored when a player is allowed to swing away rather than attempting to bunt a player over.

Nice job, Charlie!

[VObserver]

Thanks.

[cajunref]

Just a comparison. From 2000 to 2024, the Cajuns averaged 16 sacrifice bunts a year. This year they have surpassed that number. Last year they had 80. That led Division I, Division II and Division III in sacrifice bunts.

Last year, they were forced to do it because players could not hit for power. This year, with the addition of Coach Shipman, the power is there. But for some reason, players with the ability to drive the ball, are being asked to sacrifice bunt.

As I have stated previously, analytics and statistics show more runs are scored when a player is allowed to swing away rather than attempting to bunt a player over.

Definite head scratcher, very frustrating

[VObserver]

Interestingly, if you combine all the girls who have sac bunts so far, they bat .354 and account for 50 of our 62 extra base hits and 90 of our 131 RBI. So the numbers I cited for the results of hitting away vs sacrifice bunting are even more decisive than I put in the OP.

[ridinsuicide]

Man, this thread is the proverbial can of worms. lol

Let me start by saying I am only throwing my 2 cents in and to be clear, I am NOT a fan of bunting in general (doesn't make it right or wrong) just my personal philosophy BUT, I will almost always bunt with a runner on 2B no outs, and 2B and 3B with no outs late in a game or when 1 run matters in late innings. The only exception is the weaker the pitcher, I'll take my odds at the plate OR if the game dictates otherwise (losing by several or winning by several). If it it is tied or a close game either way I will bunt in those scenarios. The better the pitching, the more I will do it. Early innings, 1st and 2nd no outs I allow my hitters to swing away. I'll put my reasoning below.

I will say though, the decision for the most part is coaching philosophy and is individualized per coach. Many successful coaches play with a "1 run per inning" mentality. The idea there is, in a competitive game 1 run per inning equates to 7 runs per game. If you score 7 runs, you win way more than you lose. Hell, score one run in 60% of innings played you win a bunch. Although not flashy, bunting has the highest success rate for a QUAB than any other offensive play.

Below are some numbers pulled from the internet on run production and probabilities. May give some perspective to why but most likely wont sway anyone's opinion here. If you hate to watch the bunt, there will always be a "BUT" LMAO



Scenario 1: Runner on 2B w/0 outs vs. runner on 3B W/1 out

"In fastpitch softball, a runner on 3rd base with one out generally has a higher probability of scoring at least one run (approx. 70-75%) compared to a runner on 2nd base with no outs (approx. 60-65%), due to the immediate proximity to home plate and the variety of ways to score."




Scenario 2: Runner on 1B and 2B W/0 outs vs. runners on 2B and 3B w/1 out

Runners on 1B & 2B, 0 Out:
Scoring Probability (R%): Approximately 61% to 64%.
Expected Runs (RE): Average of 1.45 to 1.50 runs in the remainder of the inning.

Runners on 2B & 3B, 1 Out:
Scoring Probability (R%): Approximately 68% to 70%.
Expected Runs (RE): Average of 1.35 to 1.42 runs in the remainder of the inning.


Bunt or no bunt, it's been fun to watch the girls play this year. Also pretty impressive at the depth of the team relative to the "starters" this year. There are several that can come in and give quality plate appearances at any moment. I also feel that so far this season, Coach Habetz has given players opportunities in situations for them to be successful. Mainly pinch hitting with the right matchups that fit each of those young ladies' strengths. That's a HUGE component that I feel is at times over-looked.

[babysitter]

Funny no one had an issue in 2013 - 2014. Same guy. same style and guess what, he's not changing. Enjoy the soap box though.

[VObserver]

A coach who plays for one run in any inning can most commonly be described as the loser in any baseball or softball game. One run in the inning you are playing does not equal one run per inning, because you will not always score one. Successful coaches will play for big innings, at least early in a contest before any patterns have been set. They do not give away outs to try and score 1 in the first inning. Let's say you are the manager of a team. In the first inning your leadoff hitter gets a single, then the player hitting second walks. Do you bunt your 3 hole hitter to move them to second and third? I don't. I strongly believe that in that scenario my odds of winning the game go up tremendously by letting my 3, 4 and 5 hitters hit away.

[VObserver]

Funny no one had an issue in 2013 - 2014. Same guy. same style and guess what, he's not changing. Enjoy the soap box though.

?????? There was no issue with bunting or hitting away in those years; the two combined, we only had 12 sac bunts.

Also, what guy? What style?

[ridinsuicide]

A coach who plays for one run in any inning can most commonly be described as the loser in any baseball or softball game. One run in the inning you are playing does not equal one run per inning, because you will not always score one. Successful coaches will play for big innings, at least early in a contest before any patterns have been set. They do not give away outs to try and score 1 in the first inning. Let's say you are the manager of a team. In the first inning your leadoff hitter gets a single, then the player hitting second walks. Do you bunt your 3 hole hitter to move them to second and third? I don't. I strongly believe that in that scenario my odds of winning the game go up tremendously by letting my 3, 4 and 5 hitters hit away.

Please read again the section that said (I will almost always bunt with a runner on 2B no outs, and 2B and 3B with no outs late in a game or when 1 run matters in late innings. Early innings, 1st and 2nd no outs I allow my hitters to swing away. I'll put my reasoning below.)

leadoff a game with a double, walk and stolen base, HBP and wild pitch, etc to put runner on 2nd with no outs.....I WILL bunt to get her to 3B. But, I am just a volunteer Coach and don't do this for a living so maybe I don't know how terrible bunting really is. Maybe allowing that extremely successful hitter that has failed 7 out of 10 times drive runs in beats bunting the runner over to 3B which then gives the offense a 70-75% chance to score according to some.

Its a game of percentages and probabilities, surely you agree with me there.

With that said, if I give you 10 rocks to throw at the light on centerfield pole from behind home plate and breaking it gets you $1MM dollars or, you can get 2 rocks and stand 5 feet away. Break the same light for $1MM.....certainly you are taking the higher odds, no?