Current Season Review and Week 4 Preview

[VObserver]

Season Review

Compared to last season, we were 11-5 after 16 games last year, 10-6 this year.

I did not compute 16 game stats for last year, but compared to season stats last year, with last year's numbers shown first:

HITTING

Batting Avg. .293 - .316
OPS .763 - .920
Runs 229 - 100 [337]
RBI 196 - 95 [321]
2B 46 - 22 [74]
3B 10 - 7 [26]
HR 22 - 18 [67]
XBH/H .194 - .353
SO 133 - 49 [184]
SF 8 - 5 [19]
SH 80 - 10 [37]

PITCHING

ERA 3.79 - 3.23
WHIP 1.61 - 1.50
OBA .282 - .252
K 191 - 76 [256]
BB 181 - 56 [189]
K/BB 1.055 - 1.357

FIELDING %

.969 - .970

Once again it appears that hitting is well ahead of the pace set last year, especially as regards to power hitting and scoring; though our offensive production did fall off significantly this week. Pitching appears to be significantly better in most areas, but walks and hit batsmen remain huge concerns for this staff. Defense is basically unchanged.

COMMENTS ON WEEK 3

The schedule for week 3 was brutal; a mid-week game with # 6 FSU, then 6 games in 3 days over the weekend, including 4 P4 teams. As I said earlier, coming out of week 3 with a 4-3 record is a solid outcome.

WEEK 4 PREVIEW

We have a mid-week game with Northern Iowa. They are currently 6-5 against a relatively weaker schedule than ours. They have no significant wins, but they do have 1 run losses to Omaha [12-1] and ULM, and a two run loss to Iowa State. The Panthers hit the ball well [.319] and score around 7 runs/game. They have been a relatively poor fielding team [.954], and pitching is less than outstanding. [ERA 4.60, WHIP 1.77, OBA .311]. They do have a good closer, so we need to score early and often.

We should win this matchup.

On the weekend we have the tournament at aTm.

We have 2 games against a decent St. Mary's team. They have a win over SDSU and a 2 run loss to South Carolina. They hit .271 as a team, and their opponents are hitting .261. Defensively, they are outstanding [.983]. Pitching is relatively good as well [ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.40], giving up only 17 XBH in 13 games. This team won't beat themselves, but will be beatable.

We also have 2 games against aTm. I don't need to tell you about the Aggies.

Our remaining game is a weak Kennesaw State team.

This is another challenging week for the Cajuns. We should beat Northern Iowa and Kennesaw. A split with St. Mary's and two losses to aTm would not be surprising. That would put us at 3-3 on the week. 4-2 would be a very good week, and if that 4-2 included one win over aTm it would be outstanding. Anything better would be great.

Except for Kennesaw, all our opponents this week are decent to very good with reference to their impact on our RPI.

Numbers in [brackets] are projections of current number to a 54 game regular season.

[CajunSID]

Season Review

Compared to last season, we were 11-5 after 16 games last year, 10-6 this year.

I did not compute 16 game stats for last year, but compared to season stats last year, with last year's numbers shown first:

HITTING

Batting Avg. .293 - .316
OPS .763 - .920
Runs 229 - 100 [337]
RBI 196 - 95 [321]
2B 46 - 22 [74]
3B 10 - 7 [26]
HR 22 - 18 [67]
XBH/H .194 - .353
SO 133 - 49 [184]
SF 8 - 5 [19]
SH 80 - 10 [37]

PITCHING

ERA 3.79 - 3.23
WHIP 1.61 - 1.50
OBA .282 - .252
K 191 - 76 [256]
BB 181 - 56 [189]
K/BB 1.055 - 1.357

FIELDING %

.969 - .970

Once again it appears that hitting is well ahead of the pace set last year, especially as regards to power hitting and scoring; though our offensive production did fall off significantly this week. Pitching appears to be significantly better in most areas, but walks and hit batsmen remain huge concerns for this staff. Defense is basically unchanged.

COMMENTS ON WEEK 3

The schedule for week 3 was brutal; a mid-week game with # 6 FSU, then 6 games in 3 days over the weekend, including 4 P4 teams. As I said earlier, coming out of week 3 with a 4-3 record is a solid outcome.

WEEK 4 PREVIEW

We have a mid-week game with Northern Iowa. They are currently 6-5 against a relatively weaker schedule than ours. They have no significant wins, but they do have 1 run losses to Omaha [12-1] and ULM, and a two run loss to Iowa State. The Panthers hit the ball well [.319] and score around 7 runs/game. They have been a relatively poor fielding team [.954], and pitching is less than outstanding. [ERA 4.60, WHIP 1.77, OBA .311]. They do have a good closer, so we need to score early and often.

We should win this matchup.

On the weekend we have the tournament at aTm.

We have 2 games against a decent St. Mary's team. They have a win over SDSU and a 2 run loss to South Carolina. They hit .271 as a team, and their opponents are hitting .261. Defensively, they are outstanding [.983]. Pitching is relatively good as well [ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.40], giving up only 17 XBH in 13 games. This team won't beat themselves, but will be beatable.

We also have 2 games against aTm. I don't need to tell you about the Aggies.

Our remaining game is a weak Kennesaw State team.

This is another challenging week for the Cajuns. We should beat Northern Iowa and Kennesaw. A split with St. Mary's and two losses to aTm would not be surprising. That would put us at 3-3 on the week. 4-2 would be a very good week, and if that 4-2 included one win over aTm it would be outstanding. Anything better would be great.

Except for Kennesaw, all our opponents this week are decent to very good with reference to their impact on our RPI.

Numbers in [brackets] are projections of current number to a 54 game regular season.

Nice recap. Slightly disagree with week being described as “solid.” Need to dig a little deeper than the win-loss record.

Getting run-ruled the way they did against FSU and Houston was quite frankly unacceptable (at least it should be to the coaches).

Yes I expected to lose to FSU, but UL is too good and too proud to not be semi-competitive.

I know they were out of gas against Houston, but again, the way the game fell apart late is simply unacceptable (at least it should be to the coaches).

I don’t think win-loss should be the true measure of what is successful or not for a weekend. This team needs some consistency.

I just want to see them play at a high level for an entire weekend for the first time this season. That will tell me they’re trending in the right direction.

[VObserver]

I should add that neither the NCAA nor Warren Nolan is posting RPI ratings or rankings yet. However, Massey does have his ratings up. UL is at 46. Of non-conference opponents remaining on our schedule:

Oklahoma 4
Virginia 15
LSU 16
aTm 19
McNeese 43
St. Mary's 79
Northern Iowa 124
Kennesaw St. 192
Abilene Christian 250

The SBC:

UL 46
TxSt 53
Troy 61
CCU 67
Marshall 70
USA 72
APP 73
ULM 80
JMU 99
GaSo 123
USM 126
GaSt 134

I don't have a feel for how accurate Massey is historically for Softball, so I take these ratings with a grain of salt. He is generally reasonably close to actual in his other sports. If he is close in softball, the SBC is looking pretty good. Not strong enough at the top, but relatively strong top to bottom.

[VObserver]

Nice recap. Slightly disagree with week being described as “solid.” Need to dig a little deeper than the win-loss record.

Getting run-ruled the way they did against FSU and Houston was quite frankly unacceptable (at least it should be to the coaches).

Yes I expected to lose to FSU, but UL is too good and too proud to not be semi-competitive.

I know they were out of gas against Houston, but again, the way the game fell apart late is simply unacceptable (at least it should be to the coaches).

I don’t think win-loss should be the true measure of what is successful or not for a weekend. This team needs some consistency.

I just want to see them play at a high level for an entire weekend for the first time this season. That will tell me they’re trending in the right direction.

You are not likely to see that this week, nor next. We just do not have sufficient pitching depth at this time. I agree that the Houston game was pretty much a disaster, but lots of teams will be demolished by FSU, and a week that features wins over SEC and Big 10 teams, plus winning all that you were supposed to win is solid.

[CajunSID]

The SBC:

UL 46
TxSt 53
Troy 61
CCU 67
Marshall 70
USA 72
APP 73
ULM 80
JMU 99
GaSo 123
USM 126
GaSt 134

Texas St has not been as good as advertised thus far. Similar to UL honestly…very up and down. I do like how it’s shaping up conference-wise for us.

[VObserver]

The demise of the PAC 12 strengthened the ACC, the Big 12 and the Big 10. The # 5 conference top to bottom from now on will be the SBC in most years. Our top programs historically [UL, TxSt, Troy, JMU and USA] need to up their game out of conference if we expect to be a multi-bid league. The top 3 of the conference need to be at worst 30-35 in RPI, the next 3 need to be 60 or better and the bottom needs to improve some as well, although I am happy in general with the bottom half this year, in terms of smart non-conference scheduling.

[VObserver]

Texas St has not been as good as advertised thus far. Similar to UL honestly…very up and down. I do like how it’s shaping up conference-wise for us.

It is going to be increasingly difficult for teams in the SBC to recruit and keep elite or near elite pitching. As a result, their performance out of conference will suffer, mostly because of lack of pitching depth to be consistently successful while playing 5-7 games a week.

The same problem exists at all positions, but the impact is much greater in the circle.

[CajunSID]

It is going to be increasingly difficult for teams in the SBC to recruit and keep elite or near elite pitching. As a result, their performance out of conference will suffer, mostly because of lack of pitching depth to be consistently successful while playing 5-7 games a week.

The same problem exists at all positions, but the impact is much greater in the circle.

100%

[BeauCajun]

Looking forward to the trip to College Station. Our first trip there for Softball.

[VObserver]

One other thing about the SBC: Through games of 2/22/26 there are five conferences with a winning percentage in excess of .549:

SEC .794
Big XII .709
ACC .643
SBC .618
Big X .613

Next in line is the AAC at .549

The SBC is closer to the ACC than the AAC in winning percentage.