D1 Softball Picks Cajuns To Finish Fifth

[Cajunsmike]

Honestly, after last year's performance and the loss of our best returning pitcher, this prediction should not be a surprise. I can't argue too much with the folks he picked ahead of us, either.

We just have too many question marks to pick us much higher than he did. I have said before, and I will now repeat it: If our pitchers produce at the talent level they have shown before last year, if Smith does at least what she did last year, if Vasquez produces at the plate like year before last, if we get what we think we should out of Marceaux, Manning, Knox, Williams, Liscano, Hart, Watts and others, we COULD be a Super Regional team. If we get what we got last year, we might not even be 5th in conference.

That is a lot of ifs required for success.

[VObserver]

That is a lot of ifs required for success.

Yes, it is. If I were forced to predict, I think it likely that maybe half of my "ifs" come through and we have a reasonable chance of winning the conference and/or the conference tournament.

My honest opinion is that our pitching is likely good enough to win the conference, but not good enough for a deep playoff run, provided the offense comes through.

Offensively, we need a lot of improvement, especially in extra base hits and RBIs. The good news is our players have the potential to produce at least 130+ extra base hits [78 last year], 300+ runs [229 last year] and 280+ RBI [196 last year]. The bad news is that those numbers are just numbers until they actually do it.

The other bad news is that if we do not change our offensive philosophy away from small ball, we are handcuffing our hitters and will not achieve numbers significantly better than last year. From 2021-2024 we averaged nearly 5 players with 15 or more extra base hits. Last year we had 1. From 2021-2024 we averaged nearly 9 players with 20 or more RBI. Last year we had 3. From 2021-2024 we averaged 16 sacrifice bunts. Last year we had 80. Numbers don't lie.

[VObserver]

I should add that from 2021 through 2024, the Cajuns scored 1542 runs [385.5/yr] from the 2978 [744.5/yr] who reached base, an average of .518 R/BR. In 2025, those numbers were 229 from 684, for an average of .335.

Had the average for 2025 been even .450, we would have produced 308 runs [instead of 229], and our season would have looked much different. I believe we can do at least this well in 2026, hence my guarded optimism for this season.

[SlickRick]

I should add that from 2021 through 2024, the Cajuns scored 1542 runs [385.5/yr] from the 2978 [744.5/yr] who reached base, an average of .518 R/BR. In 2025, those numbers were 229 from 684, for an average of .335.

Had the average for 2025 been even .450, we would have produced 308 runs [instead of 229], and our season would have looked much different. I believe we can do at least this well in 2026, hence my guarded optimism for this season.

Good info VO!

[RoarMan]

I should add that from 2021 through 2024, the Cajuns scored 1542 runs [385.5/yr] from the 2978 [744.5/yr] who reached base, an average of .518 R/BR. In 2025, those numbers were 229 from 684, for an average of .335.

Had the average for 2025 been even .450, we would have produced 308 runs [instead of 229], and our season would have looked much different. I believe we can do at least this well in 2026, hence my guarded optimism for this season.

So, you think the team can go from .335 to .450. That's a jump of .115, or 35%, which is significant. Can you please give your explanation of why you think this can happen?

[SlickRick]

So, you think the team can go from .335 to .450. That's a jump of .115, or 35%, which is significant. Can you please give your explanation of why you think this can happen?

I think he's just making a correlation to what it was from 2021 to 2024, and just finding a middle ground number. It's a big jump, no doubt. I hope we can get there.

[VObserver]

Sure.

First, we graduated 41 of our 80 sacrifice bunts. Second, assuming that our outfield is Ardoin, Williams and Knox, that Marceaux catches, Hart is at third, Vasquez and Liscano are at SS & 2B, Manning or Smith at 1B, Manning or Smith DH, our lineup will include only 3 slappers, all of whom have gap power. Given that and the addition of Shipman as hitting coach, I believe our number of sacrifice bunts will be 30 or less, our extra base hit total will be at worst 120 and runs scored will be at worst 300.

I do not believe that our offensive run production ability is nearly as bad as what we showed last year, nor do I believe that Habetz will throw away as many hitting opportunities for non-slappers as she did last year. If she coaches the offense like she did last year, which she definitely should NOT do, then I am wrong, and 5th in conference looks about right. I attribute much of our lack of run production last year to playing too much small ball, and to the regression of our hitters, which I believe to be because of poor coaching.

[RoarMan]

Sure.

First, we graduated 41 of our 80 sacrifice bunts. Second, assuming that our outfield is Ardoin, Williams and Knox, that Marceaux catches, Hart is at third, Vasquez and Liscano are at SS & 2B, Manning or Smith at 1B, Manning or Smith DH, our lineup will include only 3 slappers, all of whom have gap power. Given that and the addition of Shipman as hitting coach, I believe our number of sacrifice bunts will be 30 or less, our extra base hit total will be at worst 120 and runs scored will be at worst 300.

I do not believe that our offensive run production ability is nearly as bad as what we showed last year, nor do I believe that Habetz will throw away as many hitting opportunities for non-slappers as she did last year. If she coaches the offense like she did last year, which she definitely should NOT do, then I am wrong, and 5th in conference looks about right. I attribute much of our lack of run production last year to playing too much small ball, and to the regression of our hitters, which I believe to be because of poor coaching.

Interesting. I'm assuming the three slappers you are referring to are Williams, Liscano and Ardoin. Last year the trio had 84 hits. Only 11 of those hits were extra base hits. The three combined to drive in 15 runs. To be honest, I'm really not understanding where you're seeing they have gap power. I think you pointed out in one of your posts, numbers don't lie.

[du42]

Yes, it is. If I were forced to predict, I think it likely that maybe half of my "ifs" come through and we have a reasonable chance of winning the conference and/or the conference tournament.

My honest opinion is that our pitching is likely good enough to win the conference, but not good enough for a deep playoff run, provided the offense comes through.

Offensively, we need a lot of improvement, especially in extra base hits and RBIs. The good news is our players have the potential to produce at least 130+ extra base hits [78 last year], 300+ runs [229 last year] and 280+ RBI [196 last year]. The bad news is that those numbers are just numbers until they actually do it.

The other bad news is that if we do not change our offensive philosophy away from small ball, we are handcuffing our hitters and will not achieve numbers significantly better than last year. From 2021-2024 we averaged nearly 5 players with 15 or more extra base hits. Last year we had 1. From 2021-2024 we averaged nearly 9 players with 20 or more RBI. Last year we had 3. From 2021-2024 we averaged 16 sacrifice bunts. Last year we had 80. Numbers don't lie.

With the players that we just signed for next year. Our offense philosophy will remain small ball.

[Turbine]

Small ball is fine with me if you have someone to knock em home.