Looking at other sites and reddit (i know it's not a great source), it appears that Texas State is an absolute lock. Pac12 Fans on Reddit also don't hate the addition of UL & Tx State or UL, TX State, Memphis and Tulane. Their pursuit of Tulane and Memphis is still up in the air. Right now, Tulane and Memphis leaving the AAC would be a lateral move. Given the $25+ million exit fees they'd need to pay to the AAC, I don't see them making the move, but I wouldn't be surprised if the did.
MWC just signed a GOR and have given UNLV and Air Force a sweetheart deal. If they were to get out of the MWC, then it would cost them a lot. I've also read that UNLV had a $20+ million deficit so that doesn't help them out any.
Travel budget is the biggest hurdle, but I'm seeing new PAC media deal could be north of $10 million per school. That with ticket sales from quality opponents, more university exposure and waking up our base that has longed for something bold from this administration could lead to more donations. Would offset the cost of travel and more money in our pocket.
IMO, it's a no brainer and if TX State, Tulane and Memphis do go, AAC doesn't have to take anyone. And if they do, they may pick up App, JMU or Ga State leaving the SBC back to where it was before the 2012-13 realignment...a conference that I don't want to be a part of again. When the dust settles, the PAC & AAC will be the top two G5(6) leagues and we want/need to be a part of it.