Cajun RPI

[wcd35]

Unfortunately, LeMoyne comes in this weekend at #171 in the Adjusted RPI (21-21 overall). The Cajuns will not suffer an RPI penalty if they drop a game (LeMoyne Base RPI rank is also #171 ... a Base RPI rank of 227 or lower would incur a penalty). But a loss will drop the Cajuns' RPI and likely the RPI rank as well.

Brian _

Would I be accurate in saying this will likely be the case for the weekends not involving WKU or MT?

[GoneGolfin]

_ Would I be accurate in saying this will likely be the case for the weekends not involving WKU or MT? _

Being that the only other weekends are ULM (Base RPI #160) and UNO (Base RPI #189), yes.

Brian

[CajunRed]

_ Cajuns move up to #45 in the Adjusted RPI after last night. Western Kentucky moves to #23 and Florida Atlantic to #37.

(Base RPI, Base RPI Rank; Adjusted RPI, Adjusted RPI Rank)
(.5695, #44; .5707, #45)

Adjusted RPI
#37 .5778 Florida Atlantic
#38 .5752 San Diego
#39 .5750 Texas Tech
#40 .5748 Kansas
#41 .5731 Mississippi State
#42 .5730 Rutgers
#43 .5713 Southeastern Louisiana
#44 .5710 College of Charleston
#45 .5707 Louisiana
#46 .5696 Virginia Tech
#47 .5696 Texas State
#48 .5686 Pittsburgh
#49 .5676 Appalachian State
#50 .5675 Liberty
#51 .5644 Long Beach State

The 43->47 spots are rather jammed together ... and in general, the 40's are tight.

Unfortunately, LeMoyne comes in this weekend at #171 in the Adjusted RPI (21-21 overall). The Cajuns will not suffer an RPI penalty if they drop a game (provided LeMoyne has a Base RPI rank of 226 or higher at selection time ... currently also #171). But a loss will drop the Cajuns' RPI and likely the RPI rank as well.

It would be helpful for the Cajuns to have McNeese State pull back into the Base RPI Top 100 (currently at #110) as this would help the Cajuns record against the RPI Top 100.

Brian _

Can't help but notice that Southeastern (which all of us were in awe of earlier in the season) is slowly coming back to us... or should I say... we are climbing back up to them.

[GoneGolfin]

_ Can't help but notice that Southeastern (which all of us were in awe of earlier in the season) is slowly coming back to us... or should I say... we are climbing back up to them. _

As I said earlier in the season, I would like to get SLU on a weekend facing our starters (notably Osborne and Robichaux). The Cajuns have already seen 2/3 of SLUs weekend starters ... and three of their four best arms.

Brian

[MiamiCajun32]

_ As I said earlier in the season, I would like to get SLU on a weekend facing our starters (notably Osborne and Robichaux). The Cajuns have already seen 2/3 of SLUs weekend starters ... and three of their four best arms.

Brian _

Brian,

What kind of RPI do Cajuns need by end year to realistically compete for at-large? Also, in a close call with other "bubble" teams (if Cajuns get that far), wouldn't a very strong 2nd half of season influence committee? Or is it more of a big picture, black and white determination as to which teams get in?

[2 ul 0105]

http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1076447

Last Five In: Kentucky, East Carolina, College of Charleston, UC Irvine, Alabama
Next Ten Out: Kansas, South Alabama, Washington State, Western Carolina, VMI, Baylor, Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Washington, Wichita State

Being listed one of the next 10 in, in a regional projection a month before they even start is something to talk about. Well atleast considering the last couple of seasons.

[LifeTimeCajun]

Someone otta post that in the locker room as a motivational tool to keep the guys hungry. This weekend is big, not as big as conference, but gotta keep piling the W's up to make that push and protect RPI
igeaux.mobi

[RaginDave]

Right now, they have Arkansas State being the Automatic qualifier in SBC and WKU and FAU being at large teams. The reality is I do not see ASU getting in unless they win the tournament and I don't think they are capable of winning the SBC tournament the way they are playing.

The problem is they following teams in the Belt are all vying for the final what I would assume would be 3 bids:

ASU
WKU
USA
FAU
FIU
Louisiana
Middle

My assumption is these are the critera we have to meet to be a legit at large team:

1. 35 wins, this means we have to go 12-6 in our remaining 18 games to reach this before the SBC tournament.
2. Top 4 in the SBC, we need to leapfrog 3 teams ahead of us, good news is we are only 3 gemes out of 1st and 1 game out of 4th in the conference now.
3. RPI in the Top 35 minimum, meaning we need to perform well vs Tulane, Middle and WKU, the top RPI teams left on the schedule, while defeating all of the lower ranked RPI teams.
4. We need to improve our record vs Top 100 teams, that can happen by taking 2/3 from WKU and Middle and defeating Tulane.
5. Nice showing in the conference tournament, I think we need to win at least 2 games in the tournament to have a chance, we can't go 2 and done.
6. Finally the teams above us have to win the SBC tournament, if we don't, meaning ASU, UALR or someone with an RPI below us can not win the tournament, the SBC will get no more then 3 teams in, unfortunately. That being said if we don't win the tourny, we need to hope WKU or USA does. If we have an RPI of 35 and a team with an RPI of 45-70 wins the SBC tournament, we can all but say goodbye to our chances.

Theoretically our best chance and what we should be shooting for is the win the SBC tournament, historically I don't like relying on the NCAA selection committee.

All that being said, Geaux Cajuns, keep up the good work!!!!

Sweep Lemoyne this weekend and make it even harder for them to screw us......

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian,

What kind of RPI do Cajuns need by end year to realistically compete for at-large? Also, in a close call with other "bubble" teams (if Cajuns get that far), wouldn't a very strong 2nd half of season influence committee? Or is it more of a big picture, black and white determination as to which teams get in?

Not much has changed since my summary here ...
https://forumeus.com/sh...6&postcount=11

One change has been that Arkansas State's RPI has plummeted ... about 25 spots in the last week or so. As I noted a few days ago, if Arkansas State does not win the Sun Belt regular season (I do not think they will, but stranger things have happened), I think the Cajuns would vault past ASU in consideration for an at-large bid (RPI differential is 36 spots).

The other is that Western Kentucky is now in play for the Cajuns (thanks to FAU). But the WKU RPI is so lofty that it would be difficult for the NCAA to favor the Cajuns over the Hilltoppers if it came down to such a decision. But certainly passing WKU in the standings would increase the Cajuns' chances of an at-large.

Cajuns simply need to keep winning all games and get the RPI healthy, while moving up in the conference standings.

Brian

[LifeTimeCajun]

Bottom line....win out and we get in. Simple as that

igeaux.mobi

[GoneGolfin]

_ http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1076447

Last Five In: Kentucky, East Carolina, College of Charleston, UC Irvine, Alabama
Next Ten Out: Kansas, South Alabama, Washington State, Western Carolina, VMI, Baylor, Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Washington, Wichita State

Being listed one of the next 10 in, in a regional projection a month before they even start is something to talk about. Well atleast considering the last couple of seasons. _

Because these types of prognostications are perfectly optimistic in the number of at-large bids that will actually be available for the field of teams in the running for at-large bids, to get a realistic view of the situation, you should designate the "Last Five In:" as being out of the selection field and also choose about three more that will not make the field (that are currently selected as being part of the field).

This is a reasonable estimate of the number of conference tournament "upsets" that will occur. "Upsets" in this context meaning a team that would not have qualified for an at-large bid, but took one of the 64 spots due to winning the conference automatic bid. Such as Fresno State in 2008. :-)

Brian