Attendance Decline

[CajunFun]

In another thread I posted a comment I have heard from (non-athletic) administrators, "The more we win, the more our attendance drops." Someone took exception to that, so I became curious, and thought I'd test it.

Before continuing, I'm using the 'official' attendance numbers, which every school cooks. I will say that for many of us looking from the home side, it certainly seemed that the students just weren't showing up as much. And that may be key; it may be that us old farts sitting on the home side are showing up like in the old days, but student interest is dropping.

We're working with 3 variables: time; winning; attendance. So I had to think about it to produce something that made sense in just two dimensions, so that I could create a graph. What I chose is [attendance × winning percentage] vs [time]. Some of you math folks, particularly the engineers, might be able to do this better.

Below is the graph; I ran a Peason's on it, and -0.112 came back, which suggest that our attendance, despite playing better football, seems to be dropping about 1.1% per year. It's significant, and it suggests that people are losing interest. Now, the students may be the problem; many work one or more jobs, some are parents themselves, and they often have other interests (a good thing). But if students aren't showing up today, we have to wonder if they'll show up as alums.

[CajunFun]

PS I have repeatedly edited this trying to correctly interpret the Pearson's, and I suspect I still don't have it right.

[CajunFun]

I don't have it right, that's the slope over 50+ years. Somebody help me out here.

But it's declining.

[Turbine]

Oh Pearson's, you gave me a version of goose bumps with "Peason's"

I don't know enough about Pearson's to interpret. The lower the dot the better?

Was 2020 high on the chart due to no fans allowed?

[Jacob81]

I have no understanding of your graph. It was said in another thread. When the team has a good year the following year espn hits them with 3 or 4 midweek games usually against teams that would draw a good crowd on a Saturday. I’d consider that one big factor in winning decreasing attendance.

[RedTails]

I provided ChatGPT with the yearly average home attendance of Cajun Field over the last 10 years and asked for an analysis:

Recent Attendance Trends (2013–2023)
Early 2010s Highs (2013–2015): Attendance peaked in 2013 and 2014, with averages around 25,000 per game, possibly reflecting strong fan engagement and favorable seasons. Attendance began to decline after 2014, suggesting a possible decrease in interest or external factors impacting attendance.

Steady Decline (2016–2019): From 2016 to 2019, attendance averaged between 17,000 and 20,000. The decline coincided with mixed performance seasons, although 2018 and 2019 showed some stabilization with winning records, likely helping to maintain attendance.

Pandemic Break and Brief Resurgence (2021): After the 2020 season, attendance sharply increased in 2021 to an average of 22,493, which could reflect a combination of pent-up demand post-pandemic and a successful 7-0 season. This year stands as an outlier given the unusual context.

Recent Decline (2022–2023): In 2022 and 2023, attendance averages dropped to 14,997 and 16,664, respectively. While still showing a modest increase in 2023, these are among the lowest averages of the decade, suggesting challenges in drawing large crowds. This may be due to average team performance, with both years finishing with 3-3 home records, and possibly shifts in fan engagement trends.

Overall, attendance over the last decade shows a trend of decline from earlier highs, with occasional bumps during successful seasons. The recent decline suggests a need for strategies to re-engage fans and enhance attendance stability.

I then asked if our trending data aligned with national trends:

Yes, the recent decline in attendance at Cajun Field from 2022 to the present aligns with national trends observed in college football. Many programs across the U.S. have reported similar patterns, driven by several factors:

Increased Streaming and Broadcast Options: With more games available through streaming and on-demand services, fans have more convenient options to watch games from home, which may reduce the incentive to attend games in person.

Rising Ticket Prices and Event Costs: Higher costs associated with attending games, including ticket prices, parking, and concessions, have been a barrier for many fans. For some, the expense of a game-day experience doesn’t match up with the cost-effective option of watching from home.

Changes in Fan Engagement: College football attendance, especially among younger fans, has shifted. Gen Z and millennial fans often prioritize convenience, social interactions, and the overall experience rather than committing to full-length in-person games. This trend has impacted attendance figures nationally.

Team Performance Influence: Like Cajun Field’s attendance figures, performance has a direct impact on attendance, with strong records typically boosting in-person support. However, attendance is also sensitive to general engagement trends and the strength of the fan culture within each program.

Post-Pandemic Shifts: Following the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person attendance in many sports sectors, including college football, has struggled to fully rebound. Some fans have adopted new habits or reassessed leisure priorities, leading to slightly lower attendance than pre-pandemic levels.

To counter these trends, some schools have begun enhancing game-day experiences, offering fan engagement activities, introducing flexible ticketing options, and working to boost fan support during rebuild years.

[RedBug58]

Do we allow SLCC students to get in with an ID? A high degree will be finishing at UL anyway. If I had to apply today I may not get into UL. Could help with attendance.

[SlickRick]

I provided ChatGPT with the yearly average home attendance of Cajun Field over the last 10 years and asked for an analysis:


I then asked if our trending data aligned with national trends:

Good stuff here, hard to argue with the analysis!

[Ragin9221]

We havent learned to adapt! In fact One can say we are doing everything not to increase engagement.

Again people want to go for the experience now a days not so much for W/L . W/L is the biggest key on getting people in the stands.

If the administrator said that, then one has to assume its your own fault why they havent showed up, or the administration hasnt adapt to the change.

[jaxmc1023]

which suggest that our attendance, despite playing better football, seems to be dropping about 1.1% per year. It's significant, and it suggests that people are losing interest. Now, the students may be the problem; many work one or more jobs, some are parents themselves, and they often have other interests (a good thing). But if students aren't showing up today, we have to wonder if they'll show up as alums.

How much you want to bet that you can find those same students tailgating on Nicholson Drive on Saturdays?

Cajuns games are boring as hell. My kids won't sit through more than a quarter without wanting to go to the hill or straight up leave. Look around the stadium -- most people spend more time looking at their phone than the game. Also, whatever our announced kickoff attendance is, it's usually 1/3 of that by 4th quarter.

If UL continues to market itself as "more college football", they will eventually fold the program. We are playing minor league sports. They will have to get more creative to keep people interested in this school.

[CajunNation]

I have no understanding of your graph. It was said in another thread. When the team has a good year the following year espn hits them with 3 or 4 midweek games usually against teams that would draw a good crowd on a Saturday. I’d consider that one big factor in winning decreasing attendance.

We have a winner.

[HOUCajun]

Games are way too long. That is less of a problem at home when you can flip to something else during one of the seeming endless tv time outs.

Unless you REaLLY want to support the team for some reason, it’s easier to stay home.