NCAA baseball RPI

[GoneGolfin]

_ Brian what would a season ending run like UL had in 2003 do for the RPI?

In 2003 UL's RPI was 217 on March 17th and climbed all the way up to 49 by season end. LINK _

Well, the Cajuns finished that year 16-6 over their last 22 games. The primary difference (compared to this year) being that the remaining '03 schedule was considerably more difficult (in terms of RPI). The average RPI for that remaining 22 game stretch was 78. But more importantly, the Cajuns went 3-3 vs. the RPI Top 25 and 7-4 vs. the RPI Top 50 during that stretch, earning many bonus points due to the road series win over Nebraska (aRPI of 21).

The Cajuns do not have the '03 RPI hill to climb, but that is important because they do not have the fuel (opposing schedule) for such a climb.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

- Unfortunately, the remaining schedule is a bit weak w/respect to RPI. The average Base RPI for the remaining schedule is 122.4. The Cajuns need all of their opponents to do well (past and present). Unfortunately, the Sun Belt is not much help tonight. Hopefully Western Kentucky can at least pull it out over Louisville (aRPI of 6) tonight.

Unfortunately, Western Kentucky lost a close one to Louisville at home tonight ... 7-6.

FIU lost to Bethune Cookman 8-3.
UNO lost to Auburn 13-1 (this loss should be charged to the genius that scheduled this game).
South Alabama lost to Mississippi State 9-5.
SE Missouri State leads Arkansas State 6-5, B6th.
Troy defeats UAB 8-4 ... after getting smoked by the Blazers last night.

Not a good night for the Sun Belt.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

_ Let's say the Cajuns finish 16-6 for an overall record of 35-20. That may be good for an RPI in the neighborhood of 40. But a lot depends on how our opponents finish the season. I think the crucial element of the Cajuns drive for a bid will be their record in remaining conference play. 11-4 in the remaining conference games (18-12 overall) is probably required to finish 4th in the Sun Belt.

- The Cajuns are not likely to catch any of Western Kentucky, South Alabama, or Arkansas State ... especially since South Alabama and Arkansas State hold the tiebreaker over the Cajuns.
- The Cajuns have already lost series to FAU (9-6) and FIU (6-6). They need to attain the tiebreaker over Middle (9-6).

I do not see the Cajuns finishing below 4th in the Sun Belt and having a shot at an at-large bid. Earning an at-large bid with a 4th place finish is a long shot, but possible with a good conference tournament run (finals). Unless Arkansas State and South Alabama collapse in the RPI, it will be difficult for the NCAA to choose the Cajuns over either one. Which would mean the NCAA may need to select four teams from the Sun Belt if the Cajuns are to make the field. Not likely, but it has happened before and could very well happen again. Much depends on conference tournament upsets throughout the country.

For the Cajuns to be the 3rd team in the Sun Belt selected, the Cajuns would likely need to 1) tie or be very close to South Alabama, Arkansas State, or Western Kentucky ... 2) defeat the team from above they are closest to in the conference tournament ... 3) have as good as or better RPI than that team. Based on past history, if the Cajuns finish 1 or 1 1/2 games behind one of those teams but have a double digit lead in RPI, they could leapfrog.

Some other points ...

- The Cajuns need to beef up their record vs. the RPI Top 25, RPI Top50, RPI Top 75 (Top 50 and Top 75 are most important for the at-large selections ... Top 25 are most important for national and #1 seed contenders), and RPI Top 100. Games (nine in total) against Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, and McNeese State are very important. The Cajuns are 0-1, 1-5, 6-11, and 10-13 respectively in these categories. Not good. Winning that series against Western Kentucky is oh so important, as is Middle Tennessee.

- The Cajuns may be in competition with Tulane for a bid. Tulane has a Base RPI of 78 and an Adjusted RPI of 81. They are also in a pack of teams vying for the CUSA title (a very balanced conference in '10) ... just one game out of first place. The Cajuns can really help themselves with a road win at Tulane. Also, if Tulane can get their Base RPI into the top 75 and keep it there at selection time, a road win at Tulane would earn the Cajuns an RPI bonus ... their last chance to earn such a bonus.

- Unfortunately, the remaining schedule is a bit weak w/respect to RPI. The average Base RPI for the remaining schedule is 122.4. The Cajuns need all of their opponents to do well (past and present). Unfortunately, the Sun Belt is not much help tonight. Hopefully Western Kentucky can at least pull it out over Louisville (aRPI of 6) tonight.

- Fan base has nothing to do with it.

- The Sun Belt holds a very slim lead over CUSA and the Big West in Conference RPI. I am not optimistic it will hold over either ... but we can hope.

Brian _