Welp, we all knew this day was coming

[CajunVic]

Don't get distracted by the dollars.

I mentioned a game-theory analysis of the situation elsewhere. Here's the thing we need to remember: Football is a zero sum game. At the end of a season, the number of W's will equal the number of L's… exactly.

Which leads to an unexpected insight: the P5-4-3 want to control all of the W's. But they can't because we control most of the L's. If the game splits into Px and Gx, half of the Px will instantly suffer losing records.

At the same time, over half of the Gx will have better than winning records. That's because we will still play teams from 1AA, so our cumulative records will be 55-60% or so. We will expend less money (just as was true for the old AFL v the NFL) but it doesn't matter, more of us will have better records, and we will start to produce teams with great records, even more undefeateds.

Before continuing, I also need to point out that money won't seal the deal for a lot of players. If you play baseball from the time you're 10, you'll probably get playing time in over 700 games by the time you graduate college. For football, it may be less than 80, particularly if you don't start as a freshman in HS or college. Well, if you want to go pro, game experience is critical. The Px can't give you that, but if you are a standout, the Gx can.

And then there will be the outstanding players who want a real education, and who don't want to play with hired thugs who don't go to class, and who do all manner of questionable things. Because when the Px go completely pro, their programs will degrade into homes for social misfits who excel at a pointless game.

Finally, the athletics-over-all-else mentality will undermine the academic reputations of the Px schools. Once the Px and Gx are totally separated, there will be no direct athletic comparisons, but there will still be academic comparisons. Remember, UL has passed up LSU, 'Bama, and several other schools in research funding, and we will pass more of them in the future. Other academic disparities will emerge. And the constant scandals from the Px will reinforce the message that they are more reformatory than laboratory.

So, our records will improve, but theirs will decline. They will whine, "You don't play anybody." We will respond, "You're afraid to play us."

With time, the two sides will have to settle the matter; remember, the big money wants, it pathologically needs, bragging rights. So the two sides will eventually establish a championship game, a college superbowl. And just like the early Superbowls, the NFL will dominate. They're bigger, and they pay more.

But there will be upsets. And with time, parity will emerge.

Like I said, the administrators at the big schools are clueless bozos.

[Hey Turb, the software here won't allow a dot-dot-dot for an ellipsis it converts it to a single period. Makes it hard, I had to find the ASCII, … ]

I would love for this to be the path forward however I don’t see how we manage the financial bridge through the loss of pay games, increase in TV contract and increase in attendance . . . as a realist, I have seen no answers to those questions/funding issues which can be relied upon . . .

[Turbine]

I would love for this to be the path forward however I don’t see how we manage the financial bridge through the loss of pay games, increase in TV contract and increase in attendance . . . as a realist, I have seen no answers to those questions/funding issues which can be relied upon . . .

$250,000 per home game is the hurdle.

[CajunVic]

$250,000 per home game is the hurdle.

drill down on specific revenue that will account for a positive $250,000 per home game . . . don’t forget to subtract the payoffs to play McNeese and Southeastern . . .

[FeelDaRage]

That would just leave the rest of us as the only real college football left. Then the NCAA hopefully can snatch the branding from them so they can eat themselves alive. Eventually, the lower level schools will have no choice but to come crawling back. It sounds good on paper for them until you realize nobody watches semi-pro athletics,which is basically what it would be.

[CajunNation]

That would just leave the rest of us as the only real college football left. Then the NCAA hopefully can snatch the branding from them so they can eat themselves alive. Eventually, the lower level schools will have no choice but to come crawling back. It sounds good on paper for them until you realize nobody watches semi-pro athletics,which is basically what it would be.

Exactly. No matter how big SEC financiers think their britches are, they will never outbid the NFL for talent.

[CajunT]

Quote, “ The new proposal, however, would eliminate all games against current Group of Five and FCS teams. The 70 schools would be shopped as a single-entity media rights package. It is not immediately clear which 70 schools would be included”.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...quity-backing/

Unfortunately, this is no surprise to a number of us who have been discussing it now for over a decade. They may start out with 70 programs, but their greed will not end there especially with the low hanging fruit of P5 conferences. I still believe it may be 60 or less when ligation is done. Their greed has no boundaries.

When some people became excited over the expansion of the playoffs, I warned them then that this was not to include the G5 best, but to expand the number of programs from the power conferences like the SEC and Big 10 primarily.

[cajungrad2001]

Don't get distracted by the dollars.

I mentioned a game-theory analysis of the situation elsewhere. Here's the thing we need to remember: Football is a zero sum game. At the end of a season, the number of W's will equal the number of L's… exactly.

Which leads to an unexpected insight: the P5-4-3 want to control all of the W's. But they can't because we control most of the L's. If the game splits into Px and Gx, half of the Px will instantly suffer losing records.

At the same time, over half of the Gx will have better than winning records. That's because we will still play teams from 1AA, so our cumulative records will be 55-60% or so. We will expend less money (just as was true for the old AFL v the NFL) but it doesn't matter, more of us will have better records, and we will start to produce teams with great records, even more undefeateds.

Before continuing, I also need to point out that money won't seal the deal for a lot of players. If you play baseball from the time you're 10, you'll probably get playing time in over 700 games by the time you graduate college. For football, it may be less than 80, particularly if you don't start as a freshman in HS or college. Well, if you want to go pro, game experience is critical. The Px can't give you that, but if you are a standout, the Gx can.

And then there will be the outstanding players who want a real education, and who don't want to play with hired thugs who don't go to class, and who do all manner of questionable things. Because when the Px go completely pro, their programs will degrade into homes for social misfits who excel at a pointless game.

Finally, the athletics-over-all-else mentality will undermine the academic reputations of the Px schools. Once the Px and Gx are totally separated, there will be no direct athletic comparisons, but there will still be academic comparisons. Remember, UL has passed up LSU, 'Bama, and several other schools in research funding, and we will pass more of them in the future. Other academic disparities will emerge. And the constant scandals from the Px will reinforce the message that they are more reformatory than laboratory.

So, our records will improve, but theirs will decline. They will whine, "You don't play anybody." We will respond, "You're afraid to play us."

With time, the two sides will have to settle the matter; remember, the big money wants, it pathologically needs, bragging rights. So the two sides will eventually establish a championship game, a college superbowl. And just like the early Superbowls, the NFL will dominate. They're bigger, and they pay more.

But there will be upsets. And with time, parity will emerge.

Like I said, the administrators at the big schools are clueless bozos.

[Hey Turb, the software here won't allow a dot-dot-dot for an ellipsis it converts it to a single period. Makes it hard, I had to find the ASCII, … ]

1000% agree with this statement. This want happen overnight but this will play out in time everything you just stated.

[CharlieK]

4 divisions (whoops I mean “conferences”), each with 12-15 teams. Establish some mode of profit sharing and a salary cap, and you have NFL lite. Down to employment contracts that control free agency (I’m sorry, the portal). Except people get to pretend the teams have some actual relation to their school.

The NFL is otherworldly profitable. Why not copy it.

[Duckster]

Unfortunately, this is no surprise to a number of us who have been discussing it now for over a decade. They may start out with 70 programs, but their greed will not end there especially with the low hanging fruit of P5 conferences. I still believe it may be 60 or less when ligation is done. Their greed has no boundaries.

When some people became excited over the expansion of the playoffs, I warned them then that this was not to include the G5 best, but to expand the number of programs from the power conferences like the SEC and Big 10 primarily.

Yeah, maybe another half dozen or so from both B12 & ACC to fill in 'market gaps' plus Notre Dame to go with the 34 in B10/SEC and they're at 48 teams/schools making their own playoff. They could surprise us and include all the B12/ACC schools, but as you stated the greed knows no bounds. P4 will still like scheduling G6 schools to pad the win columns.

[RaginScotsman]

Is the “Rudy” supposed to be funny? Naming an elitist separation after college football’s theatrical underdog?

[ZoomZoom]

SEC and Big10 not interested…today. It was also stated the PAC is officially dead in a roundabout way. The A4.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...private-equity

[RaginCajun77]

SEC and Big10 not interested…today. It was also stated the PAC is officially dead in a roundabout way. The A4.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...private-equity

In February, the SEC and Big Ten announced the formation of a joint advisory group, and this one-day meeting at the Grand Hyatt was a continuation of that -- albeit with legal counsel present to make sure both conferences weren't crossing any lines that could be construed as collusion.

"Our legal counsel is very skilled at this point in defining the boundaries of what we can talk about and what we cannot talk about," SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said.

Oh, we're worried about collusion, who knew? They must think those of us watching this must be absolute idiots.

[JamesTheJeweler]

Don't get distracted by the dollars.

I mentioned a game-theory analysis of the situation elsewhere. Here's the thing we need to remember: Football is a zero sum game. At the end of a season, the number of W's will equal the number of L's… exactly.

Which leads to an unexpected insight: the P5-4-3 want to control all of the W's. But they can't because we control most of the L's. If the game splits into Px and Gx, half of the Px will instantly suffer losing records.

At the same time, over half of the Gx will have better than winning records. That's because we will still play teams from 1AA, so our cumulative records will be 55-60% or so. We will expend less money (just as was true for the old AFL v the NFL) but it doesn't matter, more of us will have better records, and we will start to produce teams with great records, even more undefeateds.

Before continuing, I also need to point out that money won't seal the deal for a lot of players. If you play baseball from the time you're 10, you'll probably get playing time in over 700 games by the time you graduate college. For football, it may be less than 80, particularly if you don't start as a freshman in HS or college. Well, if you want to go pro, game experience is critical. The Px can't give you that, but if you are a standout, the Gx can.

And then there will be the outstanding players who want a real education, and who don't want to play with hired thugs who don't go to class, and who do all manner of questionable things. Because when the Px go completely pro, their programs will degrade into homes for social misfits who excel at a pointless game.

Finally, the athletics-over-all-else mentality will undermine the academic reputations of the Px schools. Once the Px and Gx are totally separated, there will be no direct athletic comparisons, but there will still be academic comparisons. Remember, UL has passed up LSU, 'Bama, and several other schools in research funding, and we will pass more of them in the future. Other academic disparities will emerge. And the constant scandals from the Px will reinforce the message that they are more reformatory than laboratory.

So, our records will improve, but theirs will decline. They will whine, "You don't play anybody." We will respond, "You're afraid to play us."

With time, the two sides will have to settle the matter; remember, the big money wants, it pathologically needs, bragging rights. So the two sides will eventually establish a championship game, a college superbowl. And just like the early Superbowls, the NFL will dominate. They're bigger, and they pay more.

But there will be upsets. And with time, parity will emerge.

Like I said, the administrators at the big schools are clueless bozos.

[Hey Turb, the software here won't allow a dot-dot-dot for an ellipsis it converts it to a single period. Makes it hard, I had to find the ASCII, … ]

Just put a space between the dots, Fun

[JamesTheJeweler]

Come on, man.. you guys can't really believe that interest in G5 teams go up because of W/L record?

The average college football fan - including the locals we're trying to lure to Cajun Field - thinks that G5 teams are a joke.

Only people watching G5 games are gambling addicts and fans of those teams/conferences

Sorry, but those are the same people watching P4 teams. There's just more of them.

[HoustonCajun]

Yeah, maybe another half dozen or so from both B12 & ACC to fill in 'market gaps' plus Notre Dame to go with the 34 in B10/SEC and they're at 48 teams/schools making their own playoff. They could surprise us and include all the B12/ACC schools, but as you stated the greed knows no bounds. P4 will still like scheduling G6 schools to pad the win columns.

Texas is an example of what the top P4 schools are like. Most P4 members can't compete with these numbers.


This is what the G5 schools are competing with:

Payouts to each conference member:

Big 10 - $60M
SEC - $51M
ACC - $45M
Big 12 - $44M
Pac 12 - $34M

SBC - $2.5M

The highest budgets in the country in 2023 were:

Ohio State - $280M - Big 10
Texas A&M - $279M - SEC
Texas - $271M - SEC
Michigan - $229M - Big 10
Georgia - $210M - SEC

Clemson - $196M - highest ACC budget
Texas Tech - $146M - highest Big 12 budget

LSU - $200M - for comparison purposes (#9 overall budget & 5th in SEC)

The lowest budget in the SEC is Miss State at $115M.
The lowest budget in the Big 10 is UCLA at $106M.
The lowest budget in the Big 12 is West Virginia at $105M.

The highest budget of G5 schools is SDSU at #50 with an athletic budget of $103M.

UL has an athletic budget of ~$40M.