The Field of 64 and The Bubble

[GoneGolfin]

We can start with the teams that are absolutely secure (Top 32).

Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Arkansas, Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Virginia, NC State, Oregon State, UC Santa Barbara, Duke, Indiana State, Mississippi State, East Carolina, Wake Forest, LSU, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Dallas Baptist, South Carolina, UC Irvine, San Diego, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, Nebraska, Louisiana, West Virginia, Alabama.

Seeds may change slightly, but these teams are secure.

Next we have a group of six teams that I also feel are in the tournament, likely all as #3 seeds (unless the committee gives a significant boost to #48 Texas based on Q1 and conference finish).

Illinois, Connecticut, Texas, TCU, UCF, and Florida.

This brings us to 38 teams. Additionally, we have 21 remaining teams that are in the field with an automatic bid (30 total automatic bids ... 34 at-large bids). This brings us to 59 teams, leaving 5 spots open. Note that I am including #38 UNCW as the auto bid from the Coastal Athletic conference. Should they defeat conference champion #43 College of Charleston once today, they will snag the auto bid. In that case, College of Charleston is on the bubble for the remaining 5 spots. If College of Charleston defeats UNCW twice today, UNCW is on the bubble ... and is likely out.

The bubble (5 at-large bids available) ...

#46 Georgia Tech
#45 Kansas State
#35 Coastal Carolina
#44 James Madison
#51 Oregon
--
#43 College of Charleston or #38 UNCW
#55 Indiana
#39 Xavier
#34 Northeastern
#56 Troy
#53 Georgia Southern
#63 California (I do not believe they are in the field, but listed them here because D1Baseball has them in the field)

If Penn State defeats Nebraska today, then the 5 at-large bids available shrinks to 4. The same can be said if Georgia Southern defeats Southern Mississippi today.

I do believe that the Sun Belt has a good chance to get four teams into the field. I think that Coastal Carolina will evaluate higher than James Madison. Troy would be higher in the pecking order than Georgia Southern. I also think that #55 Indiana is a threat for an at-large bid, but I have them just out at the moment.

We will see how all of this changes (if much at all) as the day plays out.

Here are the 21 remaining auto-bids mentioned above ...

#38 UNCW or #43 College of Charleston
#51 Saint John's
#75 VCU
#62 Nicholls
#50 Wofford or #86 Samford
#155 Bryant
#266 Oral Roberts
#124 Army
#132 Southeast Missouri
#128 Western Michigan
#178 Penn
#149 Northern Kentucky
#122 High Point
#102 Niagara
#81 Kennesaw State or #106 Stetson
#162 San Jose State or #186 Fresno State
#140 Sacred Heart or #209 Long Island
#97 Grand Canyon
#235 Jackson State or #241 Grambling
#91 Tulane or #94 Wichita State
#77 Evansville

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Nebraska defeats Penn State in an exciting one (especially the top of the 9th), 2-1. So no stolen bid from the Big Ten.

Of course, we all know that teams earn bids and not conferences. But it will be interesting to see if the selection committee awards Indiana an at-large bid, giving the #4 RPI Big Ten conference three bids, instead of two. This may very well come at the expense of a fourth Sun Belt team (5th ranked RPI conference). My opinion is that the pecking order is Coastal Carolina, James Madison, then Indiana. But the committee may not want (4) Sun Belt teams vs. (2) Big Ten teams.

Brian

[Big Buds]

Are Cajun fans pulling for a Tulane win today? In terms of seeding being we won 2/3 earlier in the year.

[CajunVic]

Are Cajun fans pulling for a Tulane win today? In terms of seeding being we won 2/3 earlier in the year.

I am watching that game, not so much pulling for any team.

Last year there were two STM boys in the starting lineup that played baseball with my boys and whose parents I am good friends with so I pulled for Tulane.

[GoneGolfin]

Are Cajun fans pulling for a Tulane win today? In terms of seeding being we won 2/3 earlier in the year.

Sure, it helps the Cajuns' RPI. The Cajuns are a mere .0002 behind #36 West Virginia ... and are only .0005 ahead of #38 UNCW. A problem here is that with #41 College of Charleston beating UNCW today (first game), they would leap the Cajuns. So falling to #38 is a possibility. But UNCW winning the first game vs. CofC would certainly result in them passing the Cajuns.

The best case scenario is ...
College of Charleston defeats UNCW in the first game, but then loses to UNCW in the if necessary game. If that happens, the Cajuns may stay ahead of both schools in the RPI rankings. There is also a chance that the Cajuns catch West Virginia. We need our opponents to fare well in order for that to happen, Tulane being an important one (3 games weighted) ... but Louisiana Tech (2 games) and LSU (1 game) also being important.

Brian

[CajunVic]

I forgot Schoeffler moved from ULM to Tulane, so I’m now pulling for them.

[Big Buds]

Sure, it helps the Cajuns' RPI. The Cajuns are a mere .0002 behind #36 West Virginia ... and are only .0005 ahead of #38 UNCW. A problem here is that with #41 College of Charleston beating UNCW today (first game), they would leap the Cajuns. So falling to #38 is a possibility. But UNCW winning the first game vs. CofC would certainly result in them passing the Cajuns.

The best case scenario is ...
College of Charleston defeats UNCW in the first game, but then loses to UNCW in the if necessary game. If that happens, the Cajuns may stay ahead of both schools in the RPI rankings. There is also a chance that the Cajuns catch West Virginia. We need our opponents to fare well in order for that to happen, Tulane being an important one (3 games weighted) ... but Louisiana Tech (2 games) and LSU (1 game) also being important.

Brian

Thanks, Brian. Had the Cajuns went 4-0 this week with a win today over USM, would we host? Some of the USM folks on the Sun Belt boards are saying the winner of a Louisiana/USM final would host.

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks, Brian. Had the Cajuns went 4-0 this week with a win today over USM, would we host? Some of the USM folks on the Sun Belt boards are saying the winner of a Louisiana/USM final would host.

No.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Tulane walks off Wichita State on a two-out solo HR to LCF, winning the tournament championship game 11-10. Tulane steals a bid for the second consecutive year.

Brian

[Big Buds]

Tulane walks off Wichita State on a two-out solo HR to LCF, winning the tournament championship game 11-10. Tulane steals a bid for the second consecutive year.

Brian

I hate the Green Wave too.

[GoneGolfin]

#34 UNCW also won the first game against #42 College of Charleston, earning the Coastal Athletic conference automatic bid. League champion (10th ranked RPI conference) College of Charleston is now on the bubble.

The UNCW win vaults them over the Cajuns to #34 in the RPI rankings. But the Cajuns hold the #37 slot because they passed #38 West Virginia due to the Tulane win over Wichita State. Though, the Cajuns only lead West Virginia by .0001. Louisiana Tech (2-game weighting) is losing big to Dallas Baptist in the CUSA championship ... so this may cost the Cajuns a ranking spot. It will be partially offset if LSU (1-game weighting) can beat Tennessee.
EDIT: The Cajuns have now fallen .0002 behind West Virginia to #38. The Cajuns will not fall below #38, but could possibly get to #37 still.

Meanwhile, Nicholls has moved up to the #61 ranking spot ... only .0007 behind #60 Louisville. Nicholls has several opponents playing today that can help them close the gap, but it will be tight.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Interestingly, WAC regular season champion and top seed Grand Canyon was eliminated from the WAC conference tournament. However, because Tarleton State (a team in transition to Division I) is not eligible for the postseason ... yet won the conference tournament, the automatic bid reverts to the regular season champion (Grand Canyon).

You can bet that Grand Canyon folks were big Tarleton State fans Saturday and Sunday, after Grand Canyon was eliminated on Friday (after going 0-2).

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Based on the announced regional sites, here is a cut at what could happen from the perspective of slotting prospective #2 seeds. I looked at this from the standpoint of regional balance and geography (minimizing bus trips) ... knowing also that balance can be completed by assigning #3 and #4 seeds that help correct any imbalance introduced by #2 seed assignments.

The below #2 seed placements resulted in 12 of the 16 schools being able to bus to their respective regionals. Additionally, only one of the 16 involved a long flight. Three of the four "flights" are very short ... with UC Irvine -> Arizona and Southern Mississippi -> Tennessee being less than 500 miles.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Louisiana (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Alabama (Flight) (~600 miles drive)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Now, the above is just a cut at what the #2 seeds might be. But you get the idea.

Brian

[LouisianaB]

Based on the announced regional sites, here is a cut at what could happen from the perspective of slotting prospective #2 seeds. I looked at this from the standpoint of regional balance and geography (minimizing bus trips) ... knowing also that balance can be completed by assigning #3 and #4 seeds that help correct any imbalance introduced by #2 seed assignments.

The below #2 seed placements resulted in 12 of the 16 schools being able to bus to their respective regionals. Additionally, only one of the 16 involved a long flight. Three of the four "flights" are very short ... with UC Irvine -> Arizona and Southern Mississippi -> Tennessee being less than 500 miles.

Tennessee, Southern Mississippi (Flight) (< 500 miles drive)
Kentucky, Indiana State (Bus)
Texas A&M, Louisiana (Bus)
North Carolina, South Carolina (Bus)
Arkansas, Louisiana Tech (Bus)
Clemson, Vanderbilt (Bus)
Oklahoma, Dallas Baptist (Bus)
Georgia, Wake Forest (Bus)
Florida State, Mississippi State (Bus)
Oklahoma State, Nebraska (Bus)
Virginia, West Virginia (Bus)
North Carolina State, Alabama (Flight) (~600 miles drive)
UC Santa Barbara, San Diego (Bus)
Arizona, UC Irvine (Flight) (< 500 miles)
Oregon State, LSU (Flight)
East Carolina, Duke (Bus)

Now, the above is just a cut at what the #2 seeds might be. But you get the idea.

Brian

According to the participant manual, the threshold for bus versus flight is 400 miles.

[GoneGolfin]

According to the participant manual, the threshold for bus versus flight is 400 miles.

Yes, that is what I applied.

Brian