More stolen bids?

[GoneGolfin]

Evansville can steal a bid by beating Indiana State tonight. They lead Indiana State 6-5 B8th. Indiana State needs to win to force an if necessary game tomorrow.

Dallas Baptist awaits the winner of Liberty and Louisiana Tech tonight (Liberty leads Tech 4-1 B5th). If Liberty wins tonight and tomorrow, this is a stolen bid.

#51 Saint Johns is potentially considered a bid stealer. Saint John's finished second to Connecticut (3 games back) in the Big East. The bid that they stole may have been #39 Xavier, as the Musketeers finished 4th in the 8-team Big East (12-9 conference record . 1-2 in conference tournament) and only sport a 30-27 record.

There are others to watch as well over the coming 24 hours. This will play a part in which teams in the Sun Belt (in addition to Louisiana and Southern Mississippi) are selected to the field of 64.

Brian

[Big Buds]

Evansville just upset Indian St. in the MVC Championship. Another bid stolen.

[GoneGolfin]

#72 USC leads #31 Arizona in the B6th of the Pac-12 Tournament championship game, 3-0. USC winning will be a stolen bid.

#96 Penn State plays #29 Nebraska tomorrow in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game. A Penn State win will be a stolen bid.

The AAC has a stolen bid with Wichita State playing Tulane in tomorrow's championship game. East Carolina not winning the auto bid ensures that the AAC is not a one bid league in 2024.

2024 Stolen bids
1) Evansville
2) Saint John's
3) Wichita State or Tulane

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Louisiana Tech just walked off Liberty. So there will be no stolen bid coming from CUSA, with Tech and Dallas Baptist playing in the championship game.

Arizona has rallied to tie USC, 3-3, and is batting in the B9th.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Louisiana Tech just walked off Liberty. So there will be no stolen bid coming from CUSA, with Tech and Dallas Baptist playing in the championship game.

Arizona has rallied to tie USC, 3-3, and is batting in the B9th.

Arizona defeats USC, 4-3 . preventing another stolen bid.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

At the moment, I have the following four teams as #2 seeds .

Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, and West Virginia (no particular order).

I also have the following eight #3 seeds (no particular order) .
#38 UNCW
#43 Charleston
#40 TCU
#47 Illinois
#41 Connecticut
#32 UCF
#30 Florida
#48 Texas

An additional six #3 seeds will be taken by auto-bids. A seventh #3 seed will be taken by an auto-bid if Penn State steals a bid by winning the Big Ten tournament tomorrow. The above 8 plus the 6 auto-bids leaves two additional at-large bids (as #3 seeds). All of the #4 seeds will obviously be auto-bids.

For the last two at-large bids, we have the following schools competing. I will not breakdown their resumes here. But this gives you an idea of what the bubble looks like. And if Penn State wins tomorrow, there is only one at-large bid available for the below bubble teams.

#34 Northeastern
#35 Coastal Carolina
#39 Xavier
#44 James Madison
#45 Kansas State
#46 Georgia Tech
#51 Oregon

Neither #42 Maryland nor #49 Auburn has done enough in my opinion (poor conference play) to earn an at-large bid. Neither team qualified for their conference tournament.

I do not think Troy makes the field. I also think that Georgia Southern must win tomorrow to make the field. Coastal Carolina and James Madison are some tough calls . along with Georgia Tech, Northeastern, and Xavier. One set of metrics working to the advantage of Coastal Carolina (besides the RPI ranking) . #21 SOS, #3 NC SOS, and #12 NC RPI. The committee may reward them for scheduling tough. If Georgia Southern wins tomorrow, that could knock Coastal Carolina out . or it could give the Sun Belt a fourth bid (shutting the door for every once else in the above list).

If Penn State wins tomorrow, the Sun Belt cannot earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament, if what I have in the #3 seed list above is correct.

Brian

[R1Letterman]

I thought stealing a bid means they dont earn the bid, if someone can steal "by beating" someone, arent they earning it.
See also a stolen bid being when a big school is "gicen" the bid at the cost of a small school such as this. Seems the opposite ofna stolen bid

[Policarp]

I thought stealing a bid means they dont earn the bid, if someone can steal "by beating" someone, arent they earning it.
See also a stolen bid being when a big school is "gicen" the bid at the cost of a small school such as this. Seems the opposite ofna stolen bid

Steal is getting auto bid.
Without the autobid, no chance to get a spot in 64 whilst beating a team that will get into 64 without winning conference tournament.
Each steal results in some other team getting bumped out of the 64.

Case in point. We were near bottom of list last yearJust a couple "steals" away from not going to TAMU

[Big Buds]

It looks like the stolen bids has hurt the SBC, but helped the Cajuns.

D1 Projections
FSU (7)
Louisiana
UCF
Army

[Duckster]

At the moment, I have the following four teams as #2 seeds .

Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, and West Virginia (no particular order).

I also have the following eight #3 seeds (no particular order) .
#38 UNCW
#43 Charleston
#40 TCU
#47 Illinois
#41 Connecticut
#32 UCF
#30 Florida
#48 Texas

An additional six #3 seeds will be taken by auto-bids. A seventh #3 seed will be taken by an auto-bid if Penn State steals a bid by winning the Big Ten tournament tomorrow. The above 8 plus the 6 auto-bids leaves two additional at-large bids (as #3 seeds). All of the #4 seeds will obviously be auto-bids.

For the last two at-large bids, we have the following schools competing. I will not breakdown their resumes here. But this gives you an idea of what the bubble looks like. And if Penn State wins tomorrow, there is only one at-large bid available for the below bubble teams.

#34 Northeastern
#35 Coastal Carolina
#39 Xavier
#44 James Madison
#45 Kansas State
#46 Georgia Tech
#51 Oregon

Neither #42 Maryland nor #49 Auburn has done enough in my opinion (poor conference play) to earn an at-large bid. Neither team qualified for their conference tournament.

I do not think Troy makes the field. I also think that Georgia Southern must win tomorrow to make the field. Coastal Carolina and James Madison are some tough calls . along with Georgia Tech, Northeastern, and Xavier. One set of metrics working to the advantage of Coastal Carolina (besides the RPI ranking) . #21 SOS, #3 NC SOS, and #12 NC RPI. The committee may reward them for scheduling tough. If Georgia Southern wins tomorrow, that could knock Coastal Carolina out . or it could give the Sun Belt a fourth bid (shutting the door for every once else in the above list).

If Penn State wins tomorrow, the Sun Belt cannot earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament, if what I have in the #3 seed list above is correct.

Brian

Thanks for the continuing impressive analysis. Appears some of the stolen bids are keeping the Cajuns in #2 seed territory.

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks for the continuing impressive analysis. Appears some of the stolen bids are keeping the Cajuns in #2 seed territory.

Thanks.

But the "stolen bids" are not affecting whether the Cajuns are a 2 or 3, unless it is the team losing (to the thief) getting knocked down to a 3 from a 2. This is not impacting the Cajuns. Also (saw this mentioned elsewhere), the stolen bids would only impact regional placement to the extent the committee needs to make an adjustment in pairings to achieve better regional balance.

Three stolen bids is typical. We shall see if we get a fourth (Penn State).

Brian

[cajundiehard]

At the moment, I have the following four teams as #2 seeds .

Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, and West Virginia (no particular order).

I also have the following eight #3 seeds (no particular order) .
#38 UNCW
#43 Charleston
#40 TCU
#47 Illinois
#41 Connecticut
#32 UCF
#30 Florida
#48 Texas

An additional six #3 seeds will be taken by auto-bids. A seventh #3 seed will be taken by an auto-bid if Penn State steals a bid by winning the Big Ten tournament tomorrow. The above 8 plus the 6 auto-bids leaves two additional at-large bids (as #3 seeds). All of the #4 seeds will obviously be auto-bids.

For the last two at-large bids, we have the following schools competing. I will not breakdown their resumes here. But this gives you an idea of what the bubble looks like. And if Penn State wins tomorrow, there is only one at-large bid available for the below bubble teams.

#34 Northeastern
#35 Coastal Carolina
#39 Xavier
#44 James Madison
#45 Kansas State
#46 Georgia Tech
#51 Oregon

Neither #42 Maryland nor #49 Auburn has done enough in my opinion (poor conference play) to earn an at-large bid. Neither team qualified for their conference tournament.

I do not think Troy makes the field. I also think that Georgia Southern must win tomorrow to make the field. Coastal Carolina and James Madison are some tough calls . along with Georgia Tech, Northeastern, and Xavier. One set of metrics working to the advantage of Coastal Carolina (besides the RPI ranking) . #21 SOS, #3 NC SOS, and #12 NC RPI. The committee may reward them for scheduling tough. If Georgia Southern wins tomorrow, that could knock Coastal Carolina out . or it could give the Sun Belt a fourth bid (shutting the door for every once else in the above list).

If Penn State wins tomorrow, the Sun Belt cannot earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament, if what I have in the #3 seed list above is correct.

Brian

Looks like Coastal vs. JMU for the 3rd SBC at-large. Coastal wins on RPI. Coastal finished 7th, but just 1 game behind JMU (4th) in conference. And Coastal beat JMU 2/3. I'm thinking Coastal probably eeks out a bid over JMU in this direct comparison. I would love to see the SBC get 4 bids. Only way that might happen is if GSU wins the tournament today.

GEAUX CAJUNS!

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks.

But the "stolen bids" are not affecting whether the Cajuns are a 2 or 3, unless it is the team losing (to the thief) getting knocked down to a 3 from a 2. This is not impacting the Cajuns. Also (saw this mentioned elsewhere), the stolen bids would only impact regional placement to the extent the committee needs to make an adjustment in pairings to achieve better regional balance.

Three stolen bids is typical. We shall see if we get a fourth (Penn State).

Penn State loses to Nebraska, 2-1. So there is not a fourth stolen bid.

2024 Stolen bids
1) Evansville
2) Wichita State or Tulane
3) Saint John's

Whether a bid is stolen can be debatable. But I have Saint John's as a stolen bid because #51 Saint John's would have had a #54 RPI ranking had they lost to Georgetown in the Big East tournament championship game and I believe that their resume would have fallen short of an at-large bid . especially with Georgetown stealing the bid.

Brian