More stolen bids?

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks for the continuing impressive analysis. Appears some of the stolen bids are keeping the Cajuns in #2 seed territory.

Thanks.

But the "stolen bids" are not affecting whether the Cajuns are a 2 or 3, unless it is the team losing (to the thief) getting knocked down to a 3 from a 2. This is not impacting the Cajuns. Also (saw this mentioned elsewhere), the stolen bids would only impact regional placement to the extent the committee needs to make an adjustment in pairings to achieve better regional balance.

Three stolen bids is typical. We shall see if we get a fourth (Penn State).

Brian

[cajundiehard]

At the moment, I have the following four teams as #2 seeds ...

Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, and West Virginia (no particular order).

I also have the following eight #3 seeds (no particular order) ...
#38 UNCW
#43 Charleston
#40 TCU
#47 Illinois
#41 Connecticut
#32 UCF
#30 Florida
#48 Texas

An additional six #3 seeds will be taken by auto-bids. A seventh #3 seed will be taken by an auto-bid if Penn State steals a bid by winning the Big Ten tournament tomorrow. The above 8 plus the 6 auto-bids leaves two additional at-large bids (as #3 seeds). All of the #4 seeds will obviously be auto-bids.

For the last two at-large bids, we have the following schools competing. I will not breakdown their resumes here. But this gives you an idea of what the bubble looks like. And if Penn State wins tomorrow, there is only one at-large bid available for the below bubble teams.

#34 Northeastern
#35 Coastal Carolina
#39 Xavier
#44 James Madison
#45 Kansas State
#46 Georgia Tech
#51 Oregon

Neither #42 Maryland nor #49 Auburn has done enough in my opinion (poor conference play) to earn an at-large bid. Neither team qualified for their conference tournament.

I do not think Troy makes the field. I also think that Georgia Southern must win tomorrow to make the field. Coastal Carolina and James Madison are some tough calls ... along with Georgia Tech, Northeastern, and Xavier. One set of metrics working to the advantage of Coastal Carolina (besides the RPI ranking) ... #21 SOS, #3 NC SOS, and #12 NC RPI. The committee may reward them for scheduling tough. If Georgia Southern wins tomorrow, that could knock Coastal Carolina out ... or it could give the Sun Belt a fourth bid (shutting the door for every once else in the above list).

If Penn State wins tomorrow, the Sun Belt cannot earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament, if what I have in the #3 seed list above is correct.

Brian

Looks like Coastal vs. JMU for the 3rd SBC at-large. Coastal wins on RPI. Coastal finished 7th, but just 1 game behind JMU (4th) in conference. And Coastal beat JMU 2/3. I'm thinking Coastal probably eeks out a bid over JMU in this direct comparison. I would love to see the SBC get 4 bids. Only way that might happen is if GSU wins the tournament today.

GEAUX CAJUNS!

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks.

But the "stolen bids" are not affecting whether the Cajuns are a 2 or 3, unless it is the team losing (to the thief) getting knocked down to a 3 from a 2. This is not impacting the Cajuns. Also (saw this mentioned elsewhere), the stolen bids would only impact regional placement to the extent the committee needs to make an adjustment in pairings to achieve better regional balance.

Three stolen bids is typical. We shall see if we get a fourth (Penn State).

Penn State loses to Nebraska, 2-1. So there is not a fourth stolen bid.

2024 Stolen bids
1) Evansville
2) Wichita State or Tulane
3) Saint John's

Whether a bid is stolen can be debatable. But I have Saint John's as a stolen bid because #51 Saint John's would have had a #54 RPI ranking had they lost to Georgetown in the Big East tournament championship game and I believe that their resume would have fallen short of an at-large bid ... especially with Georgetown stealing the bid.

Brian