Cajun resume, impact games, and potential seeding

[GoneGolfin]

The Cajuns enter Saturday with an RPI ranking of #37, but are tightly packed with a group of teams 37 -> 40. The number shown below between the teams is the RPI gap between the Cajuns and the next team. Wright State losing to a bad Youngstown State team really hurt the Cajuns yesterday afternoon. The afternoon saw the Cajuns' RPI drop .0015 mostly due to that game and a few others.

#35 Coastal Carolina .56746 (regular season complete)
.00324
#36 West Virginia .56544 (regular season complete)
.00122
#37 Louisiana .56422 (regular season complete)
.00045
#38 James Madison .56377 (Saturday vs. #55 Georgia Southern)
.00048
#39 Xavier .56374 (regular season complete)
.00059
#40 TCU .56363 (regular season complete)
.00151
#41 College of Charleston .56271 (Saturday vs. #43 UNCW)
.00175
#42 Maryland .56247 (regular season complete)
.00200
#43 Connecticut .56222 (regular season complete)
.00290
#44 UNCW .56132 (Saturday vs. #41 College of Charleston)
.00453
#45 Illinois .55969 (regular season complete)

The winner of the College Charleston vs. UNCW game has a good chance of passing the Cajuns in the RPI rankings. UNCW winning would be close and the Cajuns might be able to hold them off pending other results. CofC winning would be difficult and the Cajuns would need considerable help.

Obvious RPI impact games are any teams that are on the Cajuns' schedule, especially where the game weighting is significant. Opponent's opponents results will have a minor impact. James Madison and Appalachian State defeating Old Dominion and Troy, respectively, hurt the Cajuns yesterday. Similarly, the Cajuns want Southern Mississippi to defeat Appalachian State today ... and more importantly, Georgia Southern to defeat James Madison (for several reasons). James Madison winning would vault them past the Cajuns in the RPI rankings.

Important games (with game weighting) ...
Georgia Southern (3) vs. James Madison (1)
Southern Mississippi (3) vs. Appalachian State
McNeese (2) vs. Lamar
Vanderbilt (1) vs. Tennessee
LSU (1) vs. South Carolina
Tulane (3) vs. Florida Atlantic
Louisiana Tech (2) vs. Liberty
Grambling (1) vs. Florida A&M
Nicholls (2) vs. Lamar/McNeese (2)
Jackson State (1) vs. Bethune Cookman

Q1 metric ...
The Georgia Southern game(s) are crucial from the perspective of the Q1 metric. The Eagles are currently ranked #55, but the gap between them and #61 Texas Tech (regular season complete) is a mere .00235. A loss today to JMU may result in them falling out of the RPI Top 60. A loss and a win (if necessary game) would put them back ... but a loss Sunday might put them out again. The best case would be for Georgia Southern to win the 12:30pm today, eliminating James Madison. In that case, a loss to Southern Mississippi should leave them in the RPI Top 60 and securing three Q1 wins for selection time resume evaluation.

Southern Mississippi winning and moving into the RPI Top 25 would add another 2 wins and 1 loss to the Q1 metric. Currently, Southern Mississippi is .00561 behind #25 Mississippi State (regular season complete). It is also possible that USM could catch LSU were LSU to lose to South Carolina today.

Potential seeding update in a follow-on post ...

Brian

[Policarp]

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

[cajundiehard]

Cajuns are in. End of story. I don't care how many stolen bids there are. Stolen bids might impact Coastal and James Madison. I'm thinking Troy is out, regardless.

Curious what Brian thinks is the high/low for Sun Belt. I'm sure most of us would agree UL and Southern Miss are locks.

[Esqueleto]

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

It makes me feel better that every projection today still has us as a 2 seed, although that'll probably be at a top 4 seed

[GoneGolfin]

My biggest concern.......those 5 quad 4 losses, 4 at home. Just take a quick peek at the top 50 RPI & Only 1 team has 4 or more quad 4 losses. If the committee has a ton of stolen bids to work around......I don't see it as a stretch to use this as a reason to leave us out after going 0-2 in conference tournament.

Still think we get in....but....if we don't, No one to blame but ourselves

First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

[CajunSID]

First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

My question is why UL is being considered for a #2 seed. By RPI metrics they are at best an avg 3 seed. So I assume the 2 seed consensus by the baseball media is for winning the league.

If that’s the case, then RPI isn’t as important for UL as opposed to bubble teams.

[CajunSID]

Also only thing that seems certain is UL should be going to a top 4-5 national seed, either as a very weak 2 or strong 3.

[GeauxLA]

First, this thread is focused on evaluating whether the Cajuns are a #2 seed or a #3 seed. Not whether the Cajuns make the field of 64. I ask that you please keep this thread focused on its original intent. If you want to start a thread debating whether the Cajuns are in the field or not, I ask that you please do it somewhere else. The summaries I put together take some work and I do not want the discussion to be distracted/derailed.

I will say it here one more time. The Cajuns are a lock for the field of 64. It is not close ... and nobody that understands the selection process believes it is close ... hence the discussion of 2-seed or 3-seed. I understand that a small minority of folks may have hesitance (fans typically have unwarranted negative sentiment when it comes to these things). But this is hesitance due to a lack of understanding of the evaluation process ... as well as a proper evaluation of the teams that would be in competition for these supposed last bids for which the Cajuns would be in jeopardy.

As for Q4 losses, your information is not correct. There are a number of teams that have 4+ Q4 losses.

#25 Mississippi State (5)
#28 Southern Mississippi (4)
#37 Louisiana (4)
#38 James Madison (5)
#41 College of Charleston (4)
#44 UNCW (5)
#48 Texas (8)

And guess what, most of these teams are going to make the field. In fact, the only bubble teams are James Madison and UNCW. It is possible that all of them make the field.

Brian

GG from the top rope on policarp!

Great information for the masses here! Looking forward to where the Cajuns pop up Monday.

[GoneGolfin]

My question is why UL is being considered for a #2 seed. By RPI metrics they are at best an avg 3 seed. So I assume the 2 seed consensus by the baseball media is for winning the league.

If that’s the case, then RPI isn’t as important for UL as opposed to bubble teams.

Strictly by RPI, the Cajuns would be the 6th best #3 seed (#38 RPI ranking). 5th best #3 seed when you throw out #33 Ole Miss, as they do not qualify for the NCAA Tournament. But while RPI is important to the committee, it is nowhere near the end all/be all in seeding. How else would #15 national seed Kentucky in 2023 have an RPI ranking of #2? Other metrics are important too, notably conference finish (especially in higher ranked conferences) as well as record against peer competition (Q1, etc.). This is why what happens with Georgia Southern and Southern Mississippi is important.

Additionally, you need to look at the resumes of the schools that are in competition with the Cajuns for the final #2 seeds. They are close. This is the refresh that I will be including in this thread later today.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Also only thing that seems certain is UL should be going to a top 4-5 national seed, either as a very weak 2 or strong 3.

Not certain. See this post. Though what may make it more likely is that the Cajuns may not have a regional where they can be slotted that is within bus distance that is not one of these top 5 national seeds. It will also depend on other #2 seeds and their locale and conference affiliation.

Brian

[CajunSID]

Not certain. See this post. Though what may make it more likely is that the Cajuns may not have a regional where they can be slotted that is within bus distance that is not one of these top 5 national seeds. It will also depend on other #2 seeds and their locale and conference affiliation.

Brian

Gotcha and enjoyed the read. With Lamar losing (think they are #60 in RPI), have to think the geography and regional strength make Texas A&M a realistic option for UL now.

[cajundiehard]

Pretty sure Lamar sits at home.

[sportsfanatic21]

Pretty sure Lamar sits at home.

That would be a shame. They’ve had a really good year.

[cajundiehard]

Southland is #14 rated conference. One bid league. But I would defer to Brian. Lamar #64 RPI. Good for them. Let them sit. Not a fan of Lamar... ;-)

[sportsfanatic21]

Southland is #14 rated conference. One bid league. But I would defer to Brian. Lamar #64 RPI. Good for them. Let them sit. Not a fan of Lamar... ;-)

Oh I don’t think they’re gonna get in. And I have no love for Lamar at all.

I just think it’s a shame that a team can win 44 games, win their regular season title, go on the road and sweep a team that’s a likely top 8 national seed…and then don’t get play in the postseason because they lost in the semifinals of their conference tournament.

Especially a team that led the country in ERA…which tells me (along with the sweep at Oklahoma) that they’re a team capable of winning a regional