NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record

[Big Tyme]

Yes, Levi is very level headed. I realize the locals can’t spend that much time on weather. Did anyone catch the FSU ensemble had ONE model yesterday with a hurricane off the coast between NOLA and Houma July 6th? I’m surprised our local Henny Penny didn’t show that one…oh wait, it was the weekend.

Just let me know when “the cone of death” becomes important to us.

Here’s some trivia…1964 had 4 systems, including one hurricane not named.

Did Perillo date your wife or something?

[CajunVic]

. . . nina, pinta, Santa Maria . . . they all made it . . .

[LouisianaB]

Did Perillo date your wife or something?

Perillo has been known to embellish.

Fact is weather forecasting is not an exact science but occasionally is presented as though it is (while using fancy language about models explaining that it isnt).

[CajunNation]

Source: Trust me , bro.

What source can I give you for anything beyond 100 years? Shipping logs? That is sporadic and subjective at best. The fact is we have no idea how many Hurricanes we are SUPPOSED to have every year, nor how strong they are SUPPOSED to be.

All we know is that in the past 2 decades, after all of our superior records and knowledge we have gathered on Hurricanes, our prediction models have been very, very wrong in both directions. We can see trends like El Nino/La Nina, but besides that we really have no clue what is SUPPOSED to happen.

[Big Tyme]

You are making the statement. You should provide your source otherwise it's just 'Trust me, bro'.

Not to be an actually guy but actually the seasonal predictions are very accurate. Especially for such a hugely complicated concept.
https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uplo.resize=666,296

[ZoomZoom]

Did Perillo date your wife or something?

No, but my siblings and I finally got our mother to quit watching his worst case scenario crap. Rob use to be very objective. He lost his way when his house flooded.

I dealt with the elderly for decades. They tend to hear the worst and get all nervous over nothing. Preying on the elderly for viewers.

[Big Tyme]

No, but my siblings and I finally got our mother to quit watching his worst case scenario crap. Rob use to be very objective. He lost his way when his house flooded.

I dealt with the elderly for decades. They tend to hear the worst and get all nervous over nothing. Preying on the elderly for viewers.

I felt the same way about my dad and Fox news and the daily hate and rage bait, so you have a point about older people being sucked into that vortex(no pun intended).
I think I want my meteorologist to lay out the possibilities and let me know the worst of what could happen so that I can plan for that and be pleasantly surprised if it's not as bad. Erring on the side of caution and not taking the chance on downplaying a potentially dangerous situation is not the same as fear mongering.

[ZoomZoom]

I felt the same way about my dad and Fox news and the daily hate and rage bait, so you have a point about older people being sucked into that vortex(no pun intended).
I think I want my meteorologist to lay out the possibilities and let me know the worst of what could happen so that I can plan for that and be pleasantly surprised if it's not as bad. Erring on the side of caution and not taking the chance on downplaying a potentially dangerous situation is not the same as fear mongering.

We cut the cord on her TV at the beginning of Covid for the same reason…all three news networks had her all twisted up. And she is now calmer. She needed to get back to being happy and independent thinking since she is probably clearer than many of us. So much so, our great state will bless her with a driver’s license renewal shortly.

[Cajun90]

I think I want my meteorologist to lay out the possibilities and let me know the worst of what could happen so that I can plan for that and be pleasantly surprised if it's not as bad. Erring on the side of caution and not taking the chance on downplaying a potentially dangerous situation is not the same as fear mongering.

Agreed. I've spent thirty years responsible for deploying people on a global basis both onshore and offshore. I've also worked in the disaster services field. I want as much info as possible as early as possible. Just because some people can't interpret the data being presented or have anxiety issues doesn't mean it shouldn't be presented. For some people what could happen in 10 days means nothing for others its a narrow window for decision making.

[CajunNation]

You are making the statement. You should provide your source otherwise it's just 'Trust me, bro'.

Not to be an actually guy but actually the seasonal predictions are very accurate. Especially for such a hugely complicated concept.
https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uplo.resize=666,296

Fine, I'll retract that statement and give you another. It wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a Cat 4 storm past the Windwards, before July, 100 years ago. The fact is we have no idea. Using the last 100 years as a baseline for what the weather/climate is supposed to be like is pointless. It is a statistically insignificant amount of time in the earth's history.

Also, the seasonal predictions in the decade post-Katrina were horribly off. Nobody was predicting the downturn in activity that did happen.

[JamesTheJeweler]

Last time "Beryl" was here it was lights out in Blackam. Hopefully this Beryl isn't lights out in Louisiana.

[ZoomZoom]

Fine, I'll retract that statement and give you another. It wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a Cat 4 storm past the Windwards, before July, 100 years ago. The fact is we have no idea. Using the last 100 years as a baseline for what the weather/climate is supposed to be like is pointless. It is a statistically insignificant amount of time in the earth's history.

Also, the seasonal predictions in the decade post-Katrina were horribly off. Nobody was predicting the downturn in activity that did happen.

Get in line!!! You’re not suppose to notice things contrary to the talking points!!!

Notice “heat dome” is the hot phrase this summer. It’s just the Bermuda high is more west this year.

[Turbine]

Last time "Beryl" was here it was lights out in Blackam. Hopefully this Beryl isn't lights out in Louisiana.

Yikes!

You right

[Cajunrunner]

Notice “heat dome” is the hot phrase this summer. It’s just the Bermuda high is more west this year.

And it’s more west this year and a serious problem because you refuse to give up your gas vehicle for an electric one.

Why are you such a selfish A-Hole?

[CajunVic]

And it’s more west this year and a serious problem because you refuse to give up your gas vehicle for an electric one.

Why are you such a selfish A-Hole?

and don't forget eating beef . . .