2024 Hurricane Season

[ZoomZoom]

We’re not at risk of losing a game. That’s a big win.

[Big Tyme]

Global verbiage alignment.

Or, as with the national news, one source for the talking points.

Levi’s thinking is dry air will interfere at or before landfall.

What a great week for a FB bye week.

How dare Big Weather and their tv meteorological cabal try to trick us by using proper verbiage for meteorological phenomena. They should just use "extra windy day" so no one feels inferior.

[Turbine]

How dare Big Weather and their tv meteorological cabal try to trick us by using proper verbiage for meteorological phenomena. They should just use "extra windy day" so no one feels inferior.

In the name of "proper speak" leave my Cajun Pigin alone.

The native language removal continues.

My grandpa use to call hurricanes "Journée très venteuse."

[HelmutVII]

Dr Cowan is the man

https://youtu.be/odJL5BZpm6U?si=-msyEgJJHNvrbnwN


Dave Baker not bad either. I am glad to have him back on YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/live/jeDkg7A...7bkc-izjgZ3Kis

[HelmutVII]

Dave Baker live stream link.

https://www.youtube.com/live/B5ApbE6...y11RbxR-rcgvJh

[Swamp]

Instead of a hurricane, I got a gust around 3. Fake news | Fake weather. Welcome to 2024, once baddest Nation on this rock taken over through infiltration from within.

[RaisingCajun08]

Instead of a hurricane, I got a gust around 3. Fake news | Fake weather. Welcome to 2024, once baddest Nation on this rock taken over through infiltration from within.

Typical media. To many weathermen look for the most extreme model to scare people. As the storm gets closer and the models start aligning, you tend to see them start to fade with the fear mongering.

There was indications 12+ hours before NHC started moving the official track east that we (Acadiana) would be out of the worst. Zero local weathermen publicized that but not surprised.

With all that said, no complaints here. I will gladly take what we got yesterday instead of what Morgan City, Houma, New Orleans got. I'm just counting our blessings.

[Big Tyme]

Instead of a hurricane, I got a gust around 3. Fake news | Fake weather. Welcome to 2024, once baddest Nation on this rock taken over through infiltration from within.

True UNLESS you happen to live 50ish miles to the East of Lafayette. Geez some of you people are terrible at this.
I am guessing if it would have instead come on shore at Freshwater City as a Cat 3 and blasted us with 120 mph winds you would be batching that the FAKE NEWS got it wrong then too.

[Big Tyme]

Typical media. To many weathermen look for the most extreme model to scare people. As the storm gets closer and the models start aligning, you tend to see them start to fade with the fear mongering.

There was indications 12+ hours before NHC started moving the official track east that we (Acadiana) would be out of the worst. Zero local weathermen publicized that but not surprised.

With all that said, no complaints here. I will gladly take what we got yesterday instead of what Morgan City, Houma, New Orleans got. I'm just counting our blessings.

This is erroneous. Everyone's fav Perillo was pointing out the GRAF was showing a veer to the east and more towards St Mary well before NHC decided to shift its track forecast.

[Cajun90]

Typical media. To many weathermen look for the most extreme model to scare people. As the storm gets closer and the models start aligning, you tend to see them start to fade with the fear mongering.

There was indications 12+ hours before NHC started moving the official track east that we (Acadiana) would be out of the worst. Zero local weathermen publicized that but not surprised.

With all that said, no complaints here. I will gladly take what we got yesterday instead of what Morgan City, Houma, New Orleans got. I'm just counting our blessings.

This post was from Monday and just one example of numerous. Might want to broaden out where you get your weather info from. Were plenty of mets noting the shift before the NHC did. The NHC follows a protocol of maintaining continuity in their forecast and therefore will rarely make drastic shifts in their predictions even when the data says they should. And they explain that in their discussions issued 4 times a day.

This post was followed up with numerous others as it continued the eastward shift.

[Cajunrunner]

I think anyone who was paying attention to the entire discussion could tell on Monday that the Jennings to Lafayette landfall “prediction” was probably too far West. I told my wife Monday afternoon I thought it would be more Chavin-Houma direct hit.

I was wrong, it was between Patterson-Berwick, but still…all the signs were pointing more East, and Perillo did call the track plenty East of Lafayette a couple days before landfall.

[Swamp]

True UNLESS you happen to live 50ish miles to the East of Lafayette. Geez some of you people are terrible at this.
I am guessing if it would have instead come on shore at Freshwater City as a Cat 3 and blasted us with 120 mph winds you would be batching that the FAKE NEWS got it wrong then too.

Yep.

MOHAP

Geaux Cajuns.

[ZoomZoom]

This is erroneous. Everyone's fav Perillo was pointing out the GRAF was showing a veer to the east and more towards St Mary well before NHC decided to shift its track forecast.

Levi spoke of this being a possiblity in his podcast a few days ago.

[HelmutVII]

Levi spoke of this being a possiblity in his podcast a few days ago.

True. Of course he always qualifies his statements with "check with local authorities" yada yada. Dave Baker was saying yesterday that, historically, the final path of 2/3 of the hurricanes fall within the "cone of uncertainty" the NHC publishes. While that may be good it also means that 1/3 don't. The NHC relies on computer models and as always computer models are only as good as the data they have to work with AND initial conditions. A little bit off in either one can make a big difference in projections 2 or three days down the road.

[Cajun90]

True. Of course he always qualifies his statements with "check with local authorities" yada yada. Dave Baker was saying yesterday that, historically, the final path of 2/3 of the hurricanes fall within the "cone of uncertainty" the NHC publishes. While that may be good it also means that 1/3 don't. The NHC relies on computer models and as always computer models are only as good as the data they have to work with AND initial conditions. A little bit off in either one can make a big difference in projections 2 or three days down the road.

The 2/3rds is correct. The NHC cone is based on historical data. Not sure how often they review and adjust the data. The cone has gotten smaller through the years as they have gotten better with their predictions but you are correct 1/3rd of the time (statistically speaking) the storms will track outside of their cone. Thus the reason to always be prepared if you are anywhere close. Just look at hurricane Otis in the Pacific last year if you need a reason to always be prepared.