2024 Hurricane Season

[Cajun90]

Typical media. To many weathermen look for the most extreme model to scare people. As the storm gets closer and the models start aligning, you tend to see them start to fade with the fear mongering.

There was indications 12+ hours before NHC started moving the official track east that we (Acadiana) would be out of the worst. Zero local weathermen publicized that but not surprised.

With all that said, no complaints here. I will gladly take what we got yesterday instead of what Morgan City, Houma, New Orleans got. I'm just counting our blessings.

This post was from Monday and just one example of numerous. Might want to broaden out where you get your weather info from. Were plenty of mets noting the shift before the NHC did. The NHC follows a protocol of maintaining continuity in their forecast and therefore will rarely make drastic shifts in their predictions even when the data says they should. And they explain that in their discussions issued 4 times a day.

This post was followed up with numerous others as it continued the eastward shift.

[Cajunrunner]

I think anyone who was paying attention to the entire discussion could tell on Monday that the Jennings to Lafayette landfall “prediction” was probably too far West. I told my wife Monday afternoon I thought it would be more Chavin-Houma direct hit.

I was wrong, it was between Patterson-Berwick, but still…all the signs were pointing more East, and Perillo did call the track plenty East of Lafayette a couple days before landfall.

[Swamp]

True UNLESS you happen to live 50ish miles to the East of Lafayette. Geez some of you people are terrible at this.
I am guessing if it would have instead come on shore at Freshwater City as a Cat 3 and blasted us with 120 mph winds you would be batching that the FAKE NEWS got it wrong then too.

Yep.

MOHAP

Geaux Cajuns.

[ZoomZoom]

This is erroneous. Everyone's fav Perillo was pointing out the GRAF was showing a veer to the east and more towards St Mary well before NHC decided to shift its track forecast.

Levi spoke of this being a possiblity in his podcast a few days ago.

[HelmutVII]

Levi spoke of this being a possiblity in his podcast a few days ago.

True. Of course he always qualifies his statements with "check with local authorities" yada yada. Dave Baker was saying yesterday that, historically, the final path of 2/3 of the hurricanes fall within the "cone of uncertainty" the NHC publishes. While that may be good it also means that 1/3 don't. The NHC relies on computer models and as always computer models are only as good as the data they have to work with AND initial conditions. A little bit off in either one can make a big difference in projections 2 or three days down the road.

[Cajun90]

True. Of course he always qualifies his statements with "check with local authorities" yada yada. Dave Baker was saying yesterday that, historically, the final path of 2/3 of the hurricanes fall within the "cone of uncertainty" the NHC publishes. While that may be good it also means that 1/3 don't. The NHC relies on computer models and as always computer models are only as good as the data they have to work with AND initial conditions. A little bit off in either one can make a big difference in projections 2 or three days down the road.

The 2/3rds is correct. The NHC cone is based on historical data. Not sure how often they review and adjust the data. The cone has gotten smaller through the years as they have gotten better with their predictions but you are correct 1/3rd of the time (statistically speaking) the storms will track outside of their cone. Thus the reason to always be prepared if you are anywhere close. Just look at hurricane Otis in the Pacific last year if you need a reason to always be prepared.

[ZoomZoom]

True. Of course he always qualifies his statements with "check with local authorities" yada yada. Dave Baker was saying yesterday that, historically, the final path of 2/3 of the hurricanes fall within the "cone of uncertainty" the NHC publishes. While that may be good it also means that 1/3 don't. The NHC relies on computer models and as always computer models are only as good as the data they have to work with AND initial conditions. A little bit off in either one can make a big difference in projections 2 or three days down the road.

The "check with local authorities" is basically legal boilerplate.

[60swerethebest]

Models have great difficulty anticipating and predicting effect of dry air infusion as well as effects of dust. Shear they do pretty well on. This from one of my old AF weather buds.
Of course we’re both old so I wouldn’t pay much attention to him.
The silliness is the predictions before a system develops. All the models have to have a starting point. So they guess where that is. And then show cones. Silly.
Just wait until it’s something.

[Turbine]

.
The silliness is the predictions before a system develops. All the models have to have a starting point. So they guess where that is. And then show cones. Silly.
Just wait until it’s something.

Meh dats like pradicin bowl uponets two weeks in da season. yeah

[Swamp]

Meh dats like pradicin bowl uponets two weeks in da season. yeah

Gimee cornbread

[RaisingCajun08]

This is erroneous. Everyone's fav Perillo was pointing out the GRAF was showing a veer to the east and more towards St Mary well before NHC decided to shift its track forecast.

I saw Rob's post which was 12+ hours after the models were picking up the shift. Post was also right before NHC moved their track for the 1st time. After they move the track, there as a "Boom" post from Rob trying to point out to everyone that he is right.

[ZoomZoom]

I saw Rob's post which was 12+ hours after the models were picking up the shift. Post was also right before NHC moved their track for the 1st time. After they move the track, there as a "Boom" post from Rob trying to point out to everyone that he is right.

He’s missing the point. It’s not always the message, it’s the manner of messaging. People are tired of fear mongering weathermen in general. If he’s doing a “boom” piece, the heat is on or he’s very thin skinned.

They’ll jettison him soon. The ratings book will show fluffy news broadcasts with people from God knows where with high school annunciation skills are killing the station. They’ll dump the highest paid employee and hire two more neighborhood reporters and cover Mamou and Perry.

JWJ’s alter ego needs to do a spoof bit…maybe doing a hurricane report standing in Na-Nan’s ditch.

All this said, even the legendary Dick Farout eventually fell in line with the standard narrative and mongering.