Softball RPI through Games of 5/5/2024

[VObserver]

Softball RPI through Games of 5/5/2024

UL 11 0.65876
TxSt 19 0.63466
USA 34 0.59969
Troy 54 0.57015
JMU 67 0.55822
CCU 80 0.54801
ULM 94 0.53040
MU 118 0.51098
GaSo 121 0.50860
USM 130 0.49997
App St 178 0.47649
GaSt 254 0.42565

[VObserver]

KPI as of 5/6/2024

16 UL SBC 22-2 [0.428]
21 Tx St SBC 18-6 [0.388]
34 USA SBC 16-8 [0.282]
62 Troy SBC 13-11 [0.191]
70 JMU SBC 12-12 [0.170]
77 CCU SBC 14-10 [0.146]
89 ULM SBC 12-12 [0.111]
107 MU SBC 10-14 [0.062]
110 USM SBC 10-14 [0.055]
111 GaSoSBC 12-12 [0.052]
166 AppSt SBC 4-20 [-0.042]
248 GaSt SBC 1-23 [-0.174]

[GoneGolfin]

#10 UCLA .65909
#11 Louisiana .65876
#12 Florida .65843

are all on top of each other. #9 Missouri and #8 Oklahoma State are not far away either. #13 Florida State is a bit back of the above group.

Brian

[Rainman66]

#10 UCLA .65909
#11 Louisiana .65876
#12 Florida .65843

are all on top of each other. #9 Missouri and #8 Oklahoma State are not far away either. #13 Florida State is a bit back of the above group.

Brian

Bottom line, if we win the conference tournament, do we host?

[RaginScotsman]

Bottom line, if we win the conference tournament, do we host?

We have the resume this year, but resume and RPI are one thing. The committee is the other and they are human (ish )

Listening to some softball people, we may not even need to win the tournament. I mean, don’t lose it, you want to win and that just adds more to the resume. Could move you up in the seeding. Apparently this is a weak year for hosts. Lots of bubble teams, but it seems we’re on the good side of it right now.

[GoneGolfin]

Bottom line, if we win the conference tournament, do we host?

We do not need to win it, in my opinion. I am not seeing much threat from outside the RPI Top 16. Baylor and Mississippi State are minor threats. But they have flaws on their resumes ... especially Baylor. Washington has been falling. I think that teams like Florida State and Texas A&M in the RPI Top 16 are more at risk than the Cajuns.

Of course, I would prefer not to lose the tournament opener.

Win the tournament, and the #8 RPI is easily within reach. Will depend on how other teams do in this pack of top teams. Not that the Cajuns have a Top 8 national seed resume ... but it would be interesting and would help our national seeding.

Brian

[CajunVic]

It appears that we may have more to gain by winning the tournament than to lose by fairing poorly in the tournament. Nice place to be in.

[VObserver]

Top 25 RPI through Games of 5/5/2024

Texas 1 [0.70743]
Oklahoma 2 [0.69265]
LSU 3 [0.67568]
Duke 4 [0.67386]
Tennessee 5 [0.67179]
Stanford 6 [0.66870]
Georgia 7 [0.66615]
Okla.St. 8 [0.66313]
Missouri 9 [0.66192]
UCLA 10 [0.65909]
Louisiana 11 [0.65876]
Florida 12 [0.65843]
Florida St.13 [0.64874]
Alabama 14 [0.64669]
Arkansas 15 [0.64600]
Tx A&M 16 [0.64411]
Va Tech 17 [0.63620]
Baylor 18 [0.63502]
Tx St 19 [0.63466]
California 20 [0.63267]
Miss St 21 [0.63260]
Clemson 22 [0.63140]
Arizona 23 [0.62881]
Auburn 24 [0.62462]
Wash 25 [0.61902]

Teams on our schedule in bold

[VObserver]

We do not need to win it, in my opinion. I am not seeing much threat from outside the RPI Top 16. Baylor and Mississippi State are minor threats. But they have flaws on their resumes ... especially Baylor. Washington has been falling. I think that teams like Florida State and Texas A&M in the RPI Top 16 are more at risk than the Cajuns.

Of course, I would prefer not to lose the tournament opener.

Win the tournament, and the #8 RPI is easily within reach. Will depend on how other teams do in this pack of top teams. Not that the Cajuns have a Top 8 national seed resume ... but it would be interesting and would help our national seeding.

Brian

A 9,10, 11 or 12 Seed would not hurt my feelings.

[CajunVic]

A 9,10, 11 or 12 Seed would not hurt my feelings.

Why limit that? Why not 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12?

[GoneGolfin]

Let's say the season ended today and we take the worst case scenario ... and determine if the Cajuns are still considered a national seed. First, let's assume that all of the RPI Top 16 (except the Cajuns at #11) are considered a national seed. Then we are left with the schools outside the RPI Top 16 to eclipse the Cajuns for the one remaining national seed spot. The below is not fully exhaustive, but hits on the most important metrics.

#17 Virginia Tech
- 3rd place in the #4 RPI ACC
- Solid # of road wins (14-10-1)
- 8-2 in their last 10
- 1-4 vs. RPI Top 10 (5 games)
- Pedestrian 3-6-1 vs. RPI Top 25
- 10-7-1 vs. RPI Top 50
- 24-11-1 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 45
- NC SOS 53
- No bad losses (4-0 vs. RPI 150+)

This is not a national seed resume, IMO. Strong #2 seed.

#18 Baylor
- 4th place (14-13) in the #2 RPI Big XII
- Road record (8-10). Not good ... but Road SOS is very strong.
- 9-1 in their last 10
- 3-10 vs. RPI Top 10 (13 games)
- 5-12 vs. RPI Top 25 (most of the games are in the Top 10)
- 13-18 vs. RPI Top 50. Mediocre 8-5 record vs. teams 26 -> 50.
- 22-19 vs. RPI Top 100 (very top heavy)
- SOS 6
- NC SOS 7
- 1 bad loss (7-1 vs. RPI 150+)
- Won 2/3 games at Louisiana (head to head)

Several things to like and dislike in Baylor's resume. Lukewarm on some of the resume. Head-to-head advantage vs. Louisiana could play factor, but RPI ranking differential is an issue.

#20 California
- 7th place (9-13) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 (Huge red flag)
- Road record (8-7). Not many road games ... but strong Road SOS.
- 6-4 in their last 10
- 1-5 vs. RPI Top 10 (6 games)
- 6-9 vs. RPI Top 25 (Solid)
- 10-13 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy ... not great against 26 -> 50)
- 23-16 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 28
- NC SOS 27
- No bad losses (7-0 vs. RPI 150+)
- Split 2 games at Louisiana (head to head)

Without the poor conference performance, Cal would be in the running, but still may have been short. But the 7th place team with a 9-13 conference record is not hosting ... certainly not over more qualified schools such as Washington and Arizona in their conference.

#21 Mississippi State
- Tied for 6th place (12-12) in the #1 RPI SEC with LSU and Georgia
- Road record (9-7). Not many road games.
- 4-6 in their last 10
- 4-6 vs. RPI Top 10 (10 games)
- 11-11 vs. RPI Top 25
- 17-14 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy)
- 22-15 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 16
- NC SOS 136
- 2 bad losses (7-2 vs. RPI 150+)
- Swept 2 games at home vs. Louisiana (head to head)

Similar to Baylor, several things to like and dislike in this resume. Head-to-head sweep vs. Louisiana is an advantage. Very nice record vs. the Top 10 and 25. 2 bad losses will stick out. Will get dinged on NC SOS. RPI ranking separation from Louisiana will be a factor.

#25 Washington
- Tied for 3rd place (13-10) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 with Oregon
- Road record (9-6). Not many road games.
- 5-5 in their last 10
- 3-6 vs. RPI Top 10
- 7-7 vs. RPI Top 25
- 10-11 vs. RPI Top 50 (3-4 vs. 26 -> 50)
- 20-12 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 42
- NC SOS 130
- 0 bad losses (6-0 vs. RPI 150+)

#23 Arizona
- 5th place (13-11) in the #3 RPI Pac-12 (just 1/2 game behind Washington and Oregon)
- Road record (8-9). Not many road games.
- 7-3 in their last 10
- 2-5 vs. RPI Top 10
- 5-11 vs. RPI Top 25
- 11-14-1 vs. RPI Top 50
- 22-15-1 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 15
- NC SOS 23
- 0 bad losses (4-0 vs. RPI 150+)

Respectable resumes for Washington and Arizona. I think Washington evaluates slightly better and they defeated Arizona 2/3 in Tucson. Warts on both of these resumes and RPI ranking differential with Louisiana will be difficult to overcome. Stanford and UCLA will be hosting as national seeds ... potentially both as Top 8 national seeds. While the committee might like a third regional out west, a third is difficult to swallow ... unless it comes at the expense of someone like #16 Texas A&M. I do not think it comes at the expense of #11 Louisiana. While on the surface Texas A&M looks strong when you consider their third place finish in the SEC (#1 RPI conference) ... ahead of teams such as Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama ... if you dig below the surface, they got the cupcake SEC schedule. They avoided Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia. They were swept by Florida and LSU. Their best SEC wins were against T6th Mississippi State and 9th Alabama. They literally lived off of the bottom of the conference. I also think that Alabama is at serious risk of not being a national seed.

I skipped #19 Texas State as they do not have a national seed resume and are easily second in the pecking order of the Sun Belt, regardless of what happens in the Sun Belt Tournament at their home field in San Marcos.

And now the Louisiana resume ...

#11 Louisiana
- 1st place (22-2) in the #6 RPI Sun Belt. A conference champion.
- Road record (16-8). Strong # of wins, overall games played, and the best NC Road SOS in the country.
- 9-1 in their last 10
- 2-6 vs. RPI Top 10
- 6-12 vs. RPI Top 25
- 12-14 vs. RPI Top 50 (Top heavy).
- 29-16 vs. RPI Top 100
- SOS 4
- NC SOS 1
- 0 bad losses (6-0 vs. RPI 150+)

The Cajuns played 24 road games, had the best NC Road SOS in the country, had the best NC SOS in the country, and the fourth strongest overall schedule in the country. They have two RPI Top 10 wins and 6 RPI Top 25 wins. This should speak volumes to the selection committee.

Brian

[Turbine]

Great read Brian

Great read, great perspective, very educational.

Thanks.

[VObserver]

I see that Clemson [RPI 22] is 0-7 vs top 25, 11-4 vs RPI 26-50 and 26-15 vs RPI 1-100. They also have a bad loss [Below 150].
Also 5-5 in their last 10 and 4th in the ACC.
Nothing really impressive there.

[GoneGolfin]

I see that Clemson [RPI 22] is 0-7 vs top 25, 11-4 vs RPI 26-50 and 26-15 vs RPI 1-100. They also have a bad loss [Below 150].
Also 5-5 in their last 10 and 4th in the ACC.
Nothing really impressive there.

Yes. This is why they did not even make the cut for mention/review.

Brian

[VObserver]

SBC RPI through games of 5/7

Louisiana 11 [0.65900]
Texas St. 19 [0.63471]
USA 33 [0.59980]
Troy 53 [0.57099]
JMU 67 [0.55815]
CCU 79 [0.54805]
ULM 93 [0.53122]
MU 118 [0.51091]
GaSo 121 [0.50865]
USM 129 [0.50061]
AppSt 178 [0.47651]
GaSt 254 [0.42583]