D1 Field of 64 Projections

[Cajunrunner]

Yeah but they’ve gotten away from placing teams based on geographic location over the years….well, for most teams.

Perfect example was last season. Cajuns in Coral Gables….playing Texas

Here's the thing, though. While I'm not an RPI guru, or know really anything about the process, from everything I gather reading Brian's posts and watching our team with my own eyes, if we end up a #2 seed, it will be one of the last 2-seeds left to award.

It would make sense that a bottom 2-seed would be matched up vs. one of the very best 1-seeds, would it not? And your weaker 1-seeds would be matched up vs. one of your very best 2-seeds.

[sportsfanatic21]

Here's the thing, though. While I'm not an RPI guru, or know really anything about the process, from everything I gather reading Brian's posts and watching our team with my own eyes, if we end up a #2 seed, it will be one of the last 2-seeds left to award.

It would make sense that a bottom 2-seed would be matched up vs. one of the very best 1-seeds, would it not? And your weaker 1-seeds would be matched up vs. one of your very best 2-seeds.

Correct. I’ve been saying for a couple weeks now that we’ll likely be in College Station (or Fayetteville). In this thread, just that it would be nice to be in one without A&M, Texas or LSU. And in response to a projection with 2 of them there, specifically Texas, who we played in game 1 last year.

[CajunVic]

all of this may be hard to accept but it is not really hard to understand

[Turbine]

all of this may be hard to accept but it is not really hard to understand

Bragging quota achieved.

[sportsfanatic21]

all of this may be hard to accept but it is not really hard to understand

True. It’s not hard to understand. I said “it would be nice”, meaning playing some other schools that we don’t see regularly

[GoneGolfin]

They also have Troy, Southern Miss and JMU in, which makes me think they may not be very reliable

Yes ... silliness. James Madison is not in the field at the moment. Both Southern Miss and Troy are bubble teams. At the moment I think you would have Coastal, Louisiana, and Troy in the tournament ... with Troy being a bubble in. But they are sitting on the edge. The Cajuns are in because they would be conference champions ... not because of the other parts of their resume (some of the metrics the NCAA selection committee will not like).

The Cajuns are not presently a #2 seed ... and frankly it is not close. They can get there with a strong finish.

I have always thought that when you release these projections, it would be useful to reserve three spots as stolen bid spots. It would provide a more realistic projection of what would happen if the season ended that day and selections were being made. The way it is done now leads folks to believe that some conference is going to have X # of bids ... or that their school would be currently in the tournament because D1Baseball or someone else said so. TV media calling games fall for this all the time. Reserving three #4 seeds as "Stolen Bid 1", "Stolen Bid 2", and "Stolen Bid 3" would paint a realistic picture and the typical publication of a Last X Out would allow the reader to substitute "bubble out" teams for Stolen Bid teams such that the projection of fewer stolen bids can be modeled easily.

Brian

[cajundiehard]

Presumably James Madison's problem is their conference finish (if the season ended today)? I guess their strong RPI wouldn't make up for that? I would love to see 4 teams from the Belt get in...

[R1Letterman]

If cajuns are barely a 2 how would coastal have been in consideration for host?

[GoneGolfin]

Here's the thing, though. While I'm not an RPI guru, or know really anything about the process, from everything I gather reading Brian's posts and watching our team with my own eyes, if we end up a #2 seed, it will be one of the last 2-seeds left to award.

It would make sense that a bottom 2-seed would be matched up vs. one of the very best 1-seeds, would it not? And your weaker 1-seeds would be matched up vs. one of your very best 2-seeds.

Per my other post ... the Cajuns are not a 2 seed at the moment. They would need a strong finish to get there. If the Cajuns do not win the Sun Belt regular season, I do not think they make the tournament (as an at-large). That should give you an additional indicator as to where they are now.

Re: bottom 2-seeds paired with strong #1 seeds. It is one of the things that they consider and it is sometimes something they can do (within reason) ... just as with weak #4 seeds paired with strong #1 seeds. But geography is a more important consideration for the selection committee. The entire picture needs to be evaluated.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Presumably James Madison's problem is their conference finish (if the season ended today)? I guess their strong RPI wouldn't make up for that? I would love to see 4 teams from the Belt get in...

Yes, this is one of their two big problems ... conference finish and record. They still have time to improve and move up ... along with a good conference tournament showing (the NCAA looks at overall conference record).

The other problem ... the reason they have an RPI ranking of 30 is due to some good scheduling. However, they did not win many of those games. Even if you include Q3 (Q1 + Q2 + Q3), they have a losing record (they are 11-3 in Q4). While they will get credit for a strong NC schedule, you need to win. There have been numerous teams in the past left out of the postseason with Top 30 RPIs ... notably from the power conferences. RPI is not an absolute by any means.

Now, they are still in the running for an at-large bid and have time to course correct. But they need a good finish while also hoping that stolen bids are as few as can be.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Yes, this is one of their two big problems ... conference finish and record. They still have time to improve and move up ... along with a good conference tournament showing (the NCAA looks at overall conference record).

The other problem ... the reason they have an RPI ranking of 30 is due to some good scheduling. However, they did not win many of those games. Even if you include Q3 (Q1 + Q2 + Q3), they have a losing record (they are 11-3 in Q4). While they will get credit for a strong NC schedule, you need to win. There have been numerous teams in the past left out of the postseason with Top 30 RPIs ... notably from the power conferences. RPI is not an absolute by any means.

Now, they are still in the running for an at-large bid and have time to course correct. But they need a good finish while also hoping that stolen bids are as few as can be.

Another team that had better right the ship is Coastal. They are not a lock for the tournament. They might even be a #3 seed at the moment. Big series in Hattiesburg this weekend for both teams.

Brian

[cajundiehard]

Wow (Coastal) from a legitimate likely host to potentially not making the tournament...

That's two YUGE series in the Belt this weekend! Should be some excellent baseball!

GEAUX CAJUNS!