D1 Field of 64 Projections

[J-Town Cajun]

If teams put more emphasis on winning mid week non-conference games such as throwing better arms, the entire Sun Belt would improve its conference RPI ranking as this would improve each team’s individual RPI ranking. Every conference goes .500 in conference games. Every game, 1 winner and 1 loser, every conference. What it comes down to is your non-conference schedule and winning percentage.
Not sure why everyone wouldn’t just agree to throw their #1 mid week. Seems crazy but it would work.

[CajunVic]

winning the non-conference schedule does not get you in a regional

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Who are we rooting for this weekend between Coastal and Southern Miss?

First priority is that there is not a sweep. If USM were a threat to take an at-large away from the Cajuns, I would say Coastal. But I do not think that will be the case (like it was with South Alabama in 2006 over the Cajuns due to RPI differential). As such, I would like to see USM take 2.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

If teams put more emphasis on winning mid week non-conference games such as throwing better arms, the entire Sun Belt would improve its conference RPI ranking as this would improve each team’s individual RPI ranking. Every conference goes .500 in conference games. Every game, 1 winner and 1 loser, every conference. What it comes down to is your non-conference schedule and winning percentage.
Not sure why everyone wouldn’t just agree to throw their #1 mid week. Seems crazy but it would work.

Because not every team would play along. It would take full collusion to really work. But some teams would have Grambling or Prairie View A&M midweek and would come to the conclusion that they do not need their #1 to win and would save their top pitching for the conference weekend. This would proceed to break down the “unspoken” collusion piece by piece.

Brian

[Jacob81]

The belt is the belch so far tonight. Looking #7 rpi conf in the face.

[J-Town Cajun]

Because not every team would play along. It would take full collusion to really work. But some teams would have Grambling or Prairie View A&M midweek and would come to the conclusion that they do not need their #1 to win and would save their top pitching for the conference weekend. This would proceed to break down the “unspoken” collusion piece by piece.

Brian

I know, and you’re right it would take total buy in and it would never happen. But in theory, it’s genius. Haha

[Dad04]

First priority is that there is not a sweep. If USM were a threat to take an at-large away from the Cajuns, I would say Coastal. But I do not think that will be the case (like it was with South Alabama in 2006 over the Cajuns due to RPI differential). As such, I would like to see USM take 2.

Brian

2006 was tough not getting a bid

[GoneGolfin]

I know, and you’re right it would take total buy in and it would never happen. But in theory, it’s genius. Haha

Yes, another "gaming the system" example due to the exploitable RPI.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

2006 was tough not getting a bid

It bothers me to this day.

If you recall, Steve Kittrell added a game (late in the season) on the road midweek (Tuesday) against Florida State between their last conference game and the Sun Belt Tournament. This was doable thanks to a conference scheduling advantage that befell the Jags ... a bye between their last conference weekend vs. Arkansas State and the beginning of the Sun Belt Tournament (a span of 10 days). Kittrell was smart to make it a road game against a top RPI opponent (Florida State was #9 at selection time). Given it was a non-conference road game, it qualified for the max RPI bonus. Kittrell threw ace PJ Walters at the Seminoles and the Jags won 7-2. Despite pitching and beating Arkansas State 4-3 the prior Friday, Walters threw over 130 pitches against Florida State on three days' rest.

This win vaulted South Alabama a number of RPI spots, growing the RPI ranking differential with the Cajuns from 7 to 17 during that time (38 vs. 55 at selection time). Despite many metrics in factor of the Cajuns ...

- including better conference regular season finish (2nd place 19-5 ... 2.5 full games ahead of 16-7 South Alabama ... 1 game behind regular season champion 20-4 Troy )
- a better overall conference record including Sun Belt Tournament)
- eliminating the Jags from the Sun Belt Tournament (head-to-head was 2-2 ... with 3 games in Mobile and one at a neutral site)
- Cajuns were 2-1 vs. RPI Top 25 ... South Alabama was 2-7
- Cajuns were 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50 ... South Alabama was 6-12
- Cajuns were 14-12 vs. RPI Top 100 ... South Alabama was 17-18

... the selection committee leaned on RPI differential to make the decision between the two teams. As you know, this was a team sandwiched between two good 2005 and 2007 teams ... with 2007 making a strong run to host (#14 RPI at selection time ... just did not have the RPI Top 25 wins ... 0-3).

Brian

[Dad04]

It bothers me to this day.

If you recall, Steve Kittrell added a game (late in the season) on the road midweek (Tuesday) against Florida State between their last conference game and the Sun Belt Tournament. This was doable thanks to a conference scheduling advantage that befell the Jags ... a bye between their last conference weekend vs. Arkansas State and the beginning of the Sun Belt Tournament (a span of 10 days). Kittrell was smart to make it a road game against a top RPI opponent (Florida State was #9 at selection time). Given it was a non-conference road game, it qualified for the max RPI bonus. Kittrell threw ace PJ Walters at the Seminoles and the Jags won 7-2. Despite pitching and beating Arkansas State 4-3 the prior Friday, Walters threw over 130 pitches against Florida State on three days' rest.

This win vaulted South Alabama a number of RPI spots, growing the RPI ranking differential with the Cajuns from 7 to 17 during that time (38 vs. 55 at selection time). Despite many metrics in factor of the Cajuns ...

- including better conference regular season finish (2 full games)
- a better overall conference record (by 2.5 games ... includes Sun Belt Tournament)
- eliminating the Jags from the Sun Belt Tournament (head-to-head was 2-2 ... with 3 games in Mobile and one at a neutral site)
- Cajuns were 2-1 vs. RPI Top 25 ... South Alabama was 2-7
- Cajuns were 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50 ... South Alabama was 6-12
- Cajuns were 14-12 vs. RPI Top 100 ... South Alabama was 17-18

... the selection committee leaned on RPI differential to make the decision between the two teams. As you know, this was a team sandwiched between two good 2005 and 2007 teams ... with 2007 making a strong run to host (#14 RPI at selection time ... just did not have the RPI Top 25 wins ... 0-3).

Brian

Kitrell was crafty. Really good coach and PJ Walters had a rubber arm. He could throw strikes forever. Great college pitcher.