To give you an indication as to how arbitrary and silly the Quartile metrics are (as well as the over-emphasis of the disparity between home vs. road) . the road win over Tech provides the Cajuns with a Q1 win. Meanwhile, the home loss to Tech results in a Q3 loss.
Brian
They are on the lower end, but in the discussion. Their Q1+Q2 record is a little weak 9-9, so that could use some improvement. They have plenty of solid opportunities down the stretch (before the Sun Belt Tournament) . and not all Q1 opportunities are equal (i.e most are very winnable).
2 games at #49 Creighton this week
3 games at #50 Southern Miss
1 games vs. #6 Clemson
Brian,
Let’s say we win every series and get a few sweeps going forward (tough feat, but we are assuming just for this).
Then we go to the tournament and beat Coastal twice, Southern Miss once, and another team. (We had a similar tournament last year and jumped 20 spots, with one loss to CCU and one loss to USM).
Where do you think we would end up? I know there are several variables. But if you had to estimate
I can tell you exactly where they would finish in the context of the current RPI (all other things being equal).
But first . if the Cajuns merely won every series (no sweeps), they would finish as the #1 seed with Coastal losing only one more conference game. It is highly doubtful that they sweep Troy, Southern Miss, Georgia State, and Marshall. This would mean that unless Coastal fell all the way to 4th or 5th (also seems doubtful), they would not be on the same side of the bracket as the Cajuns . and thus could only play the Cajuns once in the Sun Belt Tournament. I know . it is fun to beat Coastal twice in the Sun Belt Tournament and be fully responsible for their departure.
But let's play along with the max gain scenario . including MountainDew's request for a JMU game. Going 10-4 the rest of the regular season (winning midweek games and going 8-4 in the final four conference series . all winning 2/3) . and beating James Madison (as the #8 seed), Coastal Carolina twice, and Southern Mississippi in the championship game would yield .
14-4 record down the stretch for an overall 44-15 record
#30 RPI ranking -> .57991 RPI, .53505 OWP, .52963 OOWP, .53324 SOS
Let's throw in a sweep of South Alabama and Southern Mississippi (sweeping at home would be the most optimal vs. dropping one at home and sweeping on the road) .
16-2 record (46-13 overall)
#20 RPI ranking -> .595057 RPI, .53505 OWP, .53072 OOWP, .53361 SOS
Now, running the table .
18-0 record (48-11 overall)
#15 RPI ranking -> .59850 RPI, .53505 OWP, .53215 OOWP, .53408 SOS
Note how the OWP remains constant in all three scenarios above . while the OOWP increases slightly as the Cajuns' record down the stretch improves (and thus the SOS increases slightly). This is because the Cajuns' own W-L record contributes to its own OOWP . but its OWP contribution from other teams is not affected.
Brian
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