BB G3 Final: Louisiana 10, Coastal Carolina 12

[GoneGolfin]

Does Coastal have a schedule with enough top tier wins to be in the conversation for hosting a Regional?

They are on the lower end, but in the discussion. Their Q1+Q2 record is a little weak 9-9, so that could use some improvement. They have plenty of solid opportunities down the stretch (before the Sun Belt Tournament) ... and not all Q1 opportunities are equal (i.e most are very winnable).

2 games at #49 Creighton this week
3 games at #50 Southern Miss
1 games vs. #6 Clemson

[LouisianaB]

Brian,

Let’s say we win every series and get a few sweeps going forward (tough feat, but we are assuming just for this).

Then we go to the tournament and beat Coastal twice, Southern Miss once, and another team. (We had a similar tournament last year and jumped 20 spots, with one loss to CCU and one loss to USM).

Where do you think we would end up? I know there are several variables. But if you had to estimate

[MountainDew]

Brian,

Let’s say we win every series and get a few sweeps going forward (tough feat, but we are assuming just for this).

Then we go to the tournament and beat Coastal twice, Southern Miss once, and another team. (We had a similar tournament last year and jumped 20 spots, with one loss to CCU and one loss to USM).

Where do you think we would end up? I know there are several variables. But if you had to estimate

For fun, make the other team JMU.

[sportsfanatic21]

D1Baseball poll is out

Coastal jumps from 19 to 13
Cajuns drop from 14 to 17

Cajuns only fell from 15 to 16 in the coaches poll

[GoneGolfin]

Brian,

Let’s say we win every series and get a few sweeps going forward (tough feat, but we are assuming just for this).

Then we go to the tournament and beat Coastal twice, Southern Miss once, and another team. (We had a similar tournament last year and jumped 20 spots, with one loss to CCU and one loss to USM).

Where do you think we would end up? I know there are several variables. But if you had to estimate

I can tell you exactly where they would finish in the context of the current RPI (all other things being equal).

But first ... if the Cajuns merely won every series (no sweeps), they would finish as the #1 seed with Coastal losing only one more conference game. It is highly doubtful that they sweep Troy, Southern Miss, Georgia State, and Marshall. This would mean that unless Coastal fell all the way to 4th or 5th (also seems doubtful), they would not be on the same side of the bracket as the Cajuns ... and thus could only play the Cajuns once in the Sun Belt Tournament. I know ... it is fun to beat Coastal twice in the Sun Belt Tournament and be fully responsible for their departure.

But let's play along with the max gain scenario ... including MountainDew's request for a JMU game. Going 10-4 the rest of the regular season (winning midweek games and going 8-4 in the final four conference series ... all winning 2/3) ... and beating James Madison (as the #8 seed), Coastal Carolina twice, and Southern Mississippi in the championship game would yield ...

14-4 record down the stretch for an overall 44-15 record
#30 RPI ranking -> .57991 RPI, .53505 OWP, .52963 OOWP, .53324 SOS

Let's throw in a sweep of South Alabama and Southern Mississippi (sweeping at home would be the most optimal vs. dropping one at home and sweeping on the road) ...

16-2 record (46-13 overall)
#20 RPI ranking -> .595057 RPI, .53505 OWP, .53072 OOWP, .53361 SOS

Now, running the table ...

18-0 record (48-11 overall)
#15 RPI ranking -> .59850 RPI, .53505 OWP, .53215 OOWP, .53408 SOS

Note how the OWP remains constant in all three scenarios above ... while the OOWP increases slightly as the Cajuns' record down the stretch improves (and thus the SOS increases slightly). This is because the Cajuns' own W-L record contributes to its own OOWP ... but its OWP contribution from other teams is not affected.

Brian

[MountainDew]

Now, running the table ...

18-0 record (48-11 overall)
#15 RPI ranking -> .59850 RPI, .53505 OWP, .53215 OOWP, .53408 SOS


Brian

I vote we do this

[DieHard 1280]

That’s exactly what I was thinking, Brian.





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[GoneGolfin]

That’s exactly what I was thinking, Brian.





��

Thanks for the confirmation, DieHard.

Brian

[LouisianaB]

Brian, are some years more chaotic than others. I looked at hosts for the past three years, compared RPI on selection versus where they were around April 24 (today’s date).

Not too many big jumps in 2023 hosts. Auburn jumped 39 to 19, Miami 28 to 12

But 2022 had some large jumps for hosts.
- ECU 52 to 8
- North Carolina 49 to 4
- Louisville 40 to 18

Im not quite sure what I’m asking. Maybe it’s this: are some years just crazy and you’ll see larger movements up or down? And if so, what circumstances lead to that?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, are some years more chaotic than others. I looked at hosts for the past three years, compared RPI on selection versus where they were around April 24 (today’s date).

Not too many big jumps in 2023 hosts. Auburn jumped 39 to 19, Miami 28 to 12

But 2022 had some large jumps for hosts.
- ECU 52 to 8
- North Carolina 49 to 4
- Louisville 40 to 18

Im not quite sure what I’m asking. Maybe it’s this: are some years just crazy and you’ll see larger movements up or down? And if so, what circumstances lead to that?

I do not know what may or may not be normal from year to year. But if you go on winning streaks like East Carolina and North Carolina did in 2022, you give yourself a chance to move up significantly. But you also need your opponents to do well. Just as important, it matters what the teams in front of you do. When you analyze this, you cannot look at ordinal ranking ... as it is just a sorted order and does not provide any concrete information regarding the difficulty in moving up. It is all about the RPI itself and how closely spaced (or not) the teams are.

Once thing that is obvious about 2022 is that #8 East Carolina (.58751) and #4 North Carolina's (.59706) RPIs are significantly down from the same ordinal spots in 2023 (#4 -> .61221 and #8 -> .60482). 2024 to date as well. As such, you had a situation in 2022 where teams at the top had significantly lower RPIs, making it easier for East Carolina and North Carolina to move up the way they did.

Brian