Impact of the Remaining Schedule

[GoneGolfin]

Now comes the challenging part of the schedule and the opportunity for the Cajuns to make a move in the RPI, Q1 games, and their general postseason resume. Some quick projections ...

Let's assume the Cajuns win their two remaining home mid-week games ... #208 Houston Christian and #260 Jackson State. And no, we do not want to lose the Jackson State game. This is a good game from the perspective of improving your RPI. Considerably better than several teams on the Cajuns' schedule ranked 100+ spots higher. Meanwhile, a win over Houston Christian is an extremely small loss in RPI. Not even worth talking about.

Next, let's assume that the Cajuns win 2/3 in every remaining conference series.

The above would result in the Cajuns obtaining a #32 RPI ranking entering the conference tournament based on the current RPI rankings, all other things being equal. Importantly, it would yield 4 Q1 wins ... assuming Georgia Southern does stay in the RPI Top 60 (currently 58). Ironically, the Cajuns sweeping Georgia Southern could take the Cajuns from 4 Q1 wins to 2 Q1 wins due to potentially moving Georgia Southern out of the RPI Top 60. But Georgia Southern could still get there by other means. We are Georgia Southern fans, except in our series against them.

#72 Troy in another real possibility of moving into Q1 range. The home loss to Jacksonville State last night hurt. We are Troy fans as well.

Also, as discussed many times prior, #77 Louisiana Tech could get there ... adding a 1 win and 0 losses to the Q1 record.

It would be really difficult for #48 Southern Mississippi to get to Q1, but not impossible. In addition to the Cajuns on the road, they do have Coastal at home remaining. Southern Miss simply does not feel like an RPI Top 25 team. Too many holes.

We would prefer that #49 LSU not make it into the RPI Top 40, which would give the Cajuns another Q1 loss. With their schedule (Missouri aside), they do not need to win a lot to get there.

#118 Texas State would need a minor miracle to get to the RPI Top 60. Not impossible ... but I do not see it happening.

Maybe we can get JMU in the conference tournament (neutral site) ... and hope some others can move into the RPI Top 40 for more potential Q1 wins (Southern Mississippi, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern).

Brian

[LaCajunsFan]

Now comes the challenging part of the schedule and the opportunity for the Cajuns to make a move in the RPI, Q1 games, and their general postseason resume. Some quick projections ...

Let's assume the Cajuns win their two remaining home mid-week games ... #208 Houston Christian and #260 Jackson State. And no, we do not want to lose the Jackson State game. This is a good game from the perspective of improving your RPI. Considerably better than several teams on the Cajuns' schedule ranked 100+ spots higher. Meanwhile, a win over Houston Christian is an extremely small loss in RPI. Not even worth talking about.

Next, let's assume that the Cajuns win 2/3 in every remaining conference series.

The above would result in the Cajuns obtaining a #32 RPI ranking entering the conference tournament based on the current RPI rankings, all other things being equal. Importantly, it would yield 4 Q1 wins ... assuming Georgia Southern does stay in the RPI Top 60 (currently 58). Ironically, the Cajuns sweeping Georgia Southern could take the Cajuns from 4 Q1 wins to 2 Q1 wins due to potentially moving Georgia Southern out of the RPI Top 60. But Georgia Southern could still get there by other means. We are Georgia Southern fans, except in our series against them.

#72 Troy in another real possibility of moving into Q1 range. The home loss to Jacksonville State last night hurt. We are Troy fans as well.

Also, as discussed many times prior, #77 Louisiana Tech could get there ... adding a 1 win and 0 losses to the Q1 record.

It would be really difficult for #48 Southern Mississippi to get to Q1, but not impossible. In addition to the Cajuns on the road, they do have Coastal at home remaining. Southern Miss simply does not feel like an RPI Top 25 team. Too many holes.

We would prefer that #49 LSU not make it into the RPI Top 40, which would give the Cajuns another Q1 loss. With their schedule (Missouri aside), they do not need to win a lot to get there.

#118 Texas State would need a minor miracle to get to the RPI Top 60. Not impossible ... but I do not see it happening.

Maybe we can get JMU in the conference tournament (neutral site) ... and hope some others can move into the RPI Top 40 for more potential Q1 wins (Southern Mississippi, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern).

Brian

Great summary Brian, as usual. Thanks for putting that together. So, with your cold unbiased eyes, what do you think our chances are to host? Especially if we win every series left, and then run the tables at the CCG?

And I know, one game at a time. I’m just trying to think if there is any reasonable possibility we host.

[Swamp]

Now comes the challenging part of the schedule and the opportunity for the Cajuns to make a move in the RPI, Q1 games, and their general postseason resume. Some quick projections ...

Let's assume the Cajuns win their two remaining home mid-week games ... #208 Houston Christian and #260 Jackson State. And no, we do not want to lose the Jackson State game. This is a good game from the perspective of improving your RPI. Considerably better than several teams on the Cajuns' schedule ranked 100+ spots higher. Meanwhile, a win over Houston Christian is an extremely small loss in RPI. Not even worth talking about.

Next, let's assume that the Cajuns win 2/3 in every remaining conference series.

The above would result in the Cajuns obtaining a #32 RPI ranking entering the conference tournament based on the current RPI rankings, all other things being equal. Importantly, it would yield 4 Q1 wins ... assuming Georgia Southern does stay in the RPI Top 60 (currently 58). Ironically, the Cajuns sweeping Georgia Southern could take the Cajuns from 4 Q1 wins to 2 Q1 wins due to potentially moving Georgia Southern out of the RPI Top 60. But Georgia Southern could still get there by other means. We are Georgia Southern fans, except in our series against them.

#72 Troy in another real possibility of moving into Q1 range. The home loss to Jacksonville State last night hurt. We are Troy fans as well.

Also, as discussed many times prior, #77 Louisiana Tech could get there ... adding a 1 win and 0 losses to the Q1 record.

It would be really difficult for #48 Southern Mississippi to get to Q1, but not impossible. In addition to the Cajuns on the road, they do have Coastal at home remaining. Southern Miss simply does not feel like an RPI Top 25 team. Too many holes.

We would prefer that #49 LSU not make it into the RPI Top 40, which would give the Cajuns another Q1 loss. With their schedule (Missouri aside), they do not need to win a lot to get there.

#118 Texas State would need a minor miracle to get to the RPI Top 60. Not impossible ... but I do not see it happening.

Maybe we can get JMU in the conference tournament (neutral site) ... and hope some others can move into the RPI Top 40 for more potential Q1 wins (Southern Mississippi, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern).

Brian

Vid from ncaa bsbl post on ig.

Upsize vid to full screen by hitting that 4 arrow button on bottom right of vid.

scratch the "@swam...." floating address. Due to issues with embed code (still) from ig, code was generated by another platform (and ig includes their maker's mark, hence user address as well). NOT my work. Just a soothing melody adjustment through ig "remix" feature (changed the audio).

[GoneGolfin]

Great summary Brian, as usual. Thanks for putting that together. So, with your cold unbiased eyes, what do you think our chances are to host? Especially if we win every series left, and then run the tables at the CCG?

And I know, one game at a time. I’m just trying to think if there is any reasonable possibility we host.

Thanks, you are welcome.

Winning every series 2/3 (and both midweek games) along with an undefeated run in the conference tournament is still not a hosting resume (for several reasons).

Take it a step further ... If they ran the regular season table, that would still only get them to #17 in the RPI rankings (current rankings ... all other things being equal). Couple that with a tournament run ... I think that would do it. So, not impossible. It is just so far fetched I am not thinking along these lines.

I am hoping for a strong finish and a #2 seed. Not as strong of a finish, but winning the regular season title and performing well in the conference tournament ... probably a #3 seed.

Brian

[sportsfanatic21]

Yeah I think hosting is a huge stretch at this point. The RPI formula is just too stupid.

Example, as of right now, ODU is one spot ahead of the Cajuns with a 19-17 overall record, and 7-8 in the Sun Belt, and most importantly, played a weekend series against UL and got swept by an aggregate score of 18-1. RPI isn’t a measure of how good you are…it’s who you play and how they do, which is completely asinine.

My only hope is being a 2 (or 3 because it doesn’t matter) somewhere besides College Station or Fayetteville

But I have a bad feeling we will be in College Station where the best team in the country will be hosting.

[CajunVic]

It is unfortunate that as a 2 they may do us a favor and not make us travel far.

That could well put us at aTm or at the hogs.

[Swamp]

Folks, we're gonna know a whole lot more in less than 12 hours. Coastal wknd is on.

[JamesTheJeweler]

Folks, we're gonna know a whole lot more in less than 12 hours. Coastal wknd is on.

LETS GET IT!!!

[Swamp]

We are going to destroy Coastal.

[MountainDew]

Imagine being a host team and having to see Louisiana as a #3 seed in your regional.

[CajunVic]

The main advantage to hosting is that your fans get to participate in person.

Louisiana diamond sports have a very festive and active fan base and probably do provide more of a home field advantage than most fan bases.

[Swamp]

Imagine being a host team and having to see Louisiana as a #3 seed in your regional.

Yea, thats an oh s&*^ moment.

[cajundiehard]

Imagine being a host team and having to see Louisiana as a #3 seed in your regional.

Yeah - even if it's A&M or Arkansas. Bring. Em. On.!!!

One game at a time. This team is special.

[Turbine]

The main advantage to hosting is that your fans get to participate in person.

Louisiana diamond sports have a very festive and active fan base and probably do provide more of a home field advantage than most fan bases.

This ^

[GoneGolfin]

Meanwhile, Sun Belt Tournament tickets just came out. Grabbed my three tournament books ... just behind home plate (aisle) ... Section 111.

Brian