The comment I am about to make has very little to do with last night's game; I would say the same even if the Cajuns had won.
As it stands right now, it is unlikely the Cajuns will host a regional this season. Yes, they have 5 top 25 rpi wins, they have the #4 overall SOS and #2 NC SOS, they have the win over Oklahoma, they have a great resume. The problem is going to be when the committee compares their resume side by side with the other teams in consideration for hosting. Again, this is as it stands right now.
In my estimation, the teams currently in the top 12 of the rpi are locks to host, there is very little they can do over the next three weeks to mess that up. I also think UCLA is relatively safe, though not locked yet. That leaves 3 spots and the teams I see competing with the Cajuns are Florida State, Auburn, Mississippi State and Florida. Here's a breakdown for each team:
Florida State-currently #13 rpi, #21 SOS, #8 NC SOS, 2nd place in ACC, 31-10 overall record, 2-6 top 25 record, 2 top 25 games remaining, both against Florida. 3 conference series remaining, all against teams with winning records, all in Quad 3. 1 game in Quad 4. I expect them to beat Florida both games thus giving them their necessary top 25 wins, but those two games will be critical for their resume. I expect them to either sweep or win the other three series. They may be able to get their third top 25 win in their conference tournament if they don't get it against Florida.
Auburn-currently #15 rpi, #1 SOS, #24 NC SOS, 23-13-1 overall record, 5-11-1 top 25 record (0-1-1 NC), 6 top 25 games remaining (Kentucky, Alabama), series with Ole Miss, 1 Quad 4 game. They are 5-10 in SEC, tied with South Carolina and Kentucky for 10th place. To me, they are the least likely to host out of all 5 of the teams.
Florida-currently #17 rpi, #29 SOS, #109 NC SOS, 35-9 overall record, 11-6 top 25 record (1-1 NC), 8 top 25 games remaining, 10-5 SEC record (2nd place), 3 other games top 50. 3 SEC series are South Carolina, Georgia and Texas A&M. RPI and SOS will improve because of the quality of opponents remaining. They are the most likely to host of the 5 teams.
Mississippi State- currently #18 rpi, #19 SOS, #119 NC SOS, 30-12 overall record, 8-8 top 25 record (3-1 NC), 9-9 SEC record (7th place). 6 top 25 games remaining (Missouri, Georgia), 2 more regular season games (South Alabama, Samford). Their two wins over the Cajuns puts them ahead of us in the hosting pecking order and they can improve their resume by finishing in the top half of the SEC standings.
Louisiana- currently #16 rpi, #4 SOS, #2 NC SOS, 29-15 overall record, 5-12 top 25 record, 1 top 25 game remaining (LSU), McNeese is the only other top 50 team left. California and Baylor (2-3 record against them) are playing their way out of the top 25. #35 Liberty is the next closest opponent to the top 25. The Cajuns have fewer opportunities to improve their resume than the other teams in comparison.
Three weeks is a long time, a lot of games and anything can happen. It seems that it will be necessary for the Cajuns to beat LSU next week to gain enough ammunition to stay in the argument, and beat everyone else they play, all the way through the conference tournament. The four other teams have the opportunity to improve their resumes, but they can also play their way out of the picture. I just wanted to put this out here so we can start preparing in case we have to be somewhere other than Lamson Park the weekend of May 17.
SBC RPI through 4/14/2024
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Re: SBC RPI through 4/14/2024
