Softball Games of Interest Weekend of 4/12/24 - 4/14/24

[VObserver]

SBC Series

Marshall - JMU*
Ga So - South Alabama*
Ga St - USM

The above are more important than other SBC matchups besides our own because wins by the teams in bold print give us wins in our opponent's record portion of RPI without giving us a corresponding loss. Of course that works both ways, so we want sweeps by the bolded teams.

Other Series

LSU - Auburn
Tennessee - Mississippi State*
BYU - Oklahoma
Stanford - Oregon State
Texas - Baylor*
Cal* - UCLA
La Tech* - Jacksonville State
Liberty* - MTSU
Miami* - Akron
Colorado State - Utah State
Nicholls - Houston Christian
McNeese* - aTm-Commerce

Teams with * are also important for reasons of their own RPI.
We need wins from Baylor [RPI 19], Mississippi State [20] and Cal [22] because we need them to stay in the Top 25 RPI for selection committee purposes.
For the same reasons we need wins from Liberty [32], USA [37], McNeese [39], Miami [43] and La Tech [44] to keep them in the Top 50, and from JMU [67] in hope that they can sneak into the Top 50 by season's end.

[ragin50]

SBC Series

Marshall - JMU*
Ga So - South Alabama*
Ga St - USM

The above are more important than other SBC matchups besides our own because wins by the teams in bold print give us wins in our opponent's record portion of RPI without giving us a corresponding loss. Of course that works both ways, so we want sweeps by the bolded teams.

Other Series

LSU - Auburn
Tennessee - Mississippi State*
BYU - Oklahoma
Stanford - Oregon State
Texas - Baylor*
Cal* - UCLA
La Tech* - Jacksonville State
Liberty* - MTSU
Miami* - Akron
Colorado State - Utah State
Nicholls - Houston Christian
McNeese* - aTm-Commerce

Teams with * are also important for reasons of their own RPI.
We need wins from Baylor [RPI 19], Mississippi State [20] and Cal [22] because we need them to stay in the Top 25 RPI for selection committee purposes.
For the same reasons we need wins from Liberty [32], USA [37], McNeese [39], Miami [43] and La Tech [44] to keep them in the Top 50, and from JMU [67] in hope that they can sneak into the Top 50 by season's end.

Great analysis, but I don't see the (SEC) committee letting us host no matter where we finish the season. I would think the bias is still strong considering what they've done in the past.
Hope I'm wrong.

[VObserver]

Great analysis, but I don't see the (SEC) committee letting us host no matter where we finish the season. I would think the bias is still strong considering what they've done in the past.

The big problem this year [and most others] is that there are only 16 host sites, which the committee wants to spread around the country. As of today, of the top 16 RPI, only Stanford and UCLA are not in the Southeast US or Texas/Oklahoma. There is no one in the Top 25 in the Big 10 area or the Mountain West area. The best in the Big 10 area is Penn State at 27, the best between the continental divide and California is Arizona at 23 and the best in the NW is Washington at 25. there is no host-worthy team anywhere in the area North of Arizona, East of Washington and West of the continental divide, and the best in the NE is Boston University at 41. My best guess is that Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will host for the Big 12; Stanford and UCLA for the PAC 12, Duke and either Clemson or Florida State for the ACC; Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and either Missouri or Texas A&M for the SEC. That is 11 hosts for 4 conferences. What I think will happen because of the lack of sites with worthy hosts in several areas is that the rest of the sites will have unworthy hosts as 2 seeds and teams will travel as # 1 seeds. I could see us being one of those, probably at Penn State or Boston U, but maybe at Cal, Washington or Oregon.

I don't see us hosting unless our RPI is 10 or better; even then we will never be a lock to host unless we are a national seed [1-8]. Geography and the SEC/ACC/Big12 super powers are the enemy. If we were in Big 10 country or the NE or Mountain West, we would be a lock at 14 or 15, but with 5 or 6 other host worthy programs not only above us or just below us, but within bus trip range [LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State] there is no chance at 12 or worse, and little chance at even 10.

[CajunVic]

That is why the final reason why we would not host in baseball or softball in any given year is if the committee says we don't host.

It will not be a stats, eye test, record, etc. reason.

[Turbine]

Now that schools no longer have to worry about paying players under the table, it doesn't make sense that the NCAA (committee) is still worried about travel costs in the highly profitable post season.

[CajunVic]

Now that schools no longer have to worry about paying players under the table, it doesn't make sense that the NCAA (committee) is still worried about travel costs in the highly profitable post season.

because only about 50 teams out of the 300 have unlimited $$$

havnt you read here that we are broke, just like most of the other 250

NIL has made it even worse for those in the 250 to compete and then have money to travel

[Turbine]

because only about 50 teams out of the 300 have unlimited $$$

havnt you read here that we are broke, just like most of the other 250

NIL has made it even worse for those in the 250 to compete and then have money to travel

We are well aware of the square peg RH excuse, but all schools travel for non revenue sports. They can travel for revenue sports.

No need to find an undeserving school in far flung (result poor) portions of the country.

[lcitsh]

SBC Series

Marshall - JMU*
Ga So - South Alabama*
Ga St - USM

The above are more important than other SBC matchups besides our own because wins by the teams in bold print give us wins in our opponent's record portion of RPI without giving us a corresponding loss. Of course that works both ways, so we want sweeps by the bolded teams.

Other Series

LSU - Auburn
Tennessee - Mississippi State*
BYU - Oklahoma
Stanford - Oregon State
Texas - Baylor*
Cal* - UCLA
La Tech* - Jacksonville State
Liberty* - MTSU
Miami* - Akron
Colorado State - Utah State
Nicholls - Houston Christian
McNeese* - aTm-Commerce

Teams with * are also important for reasons of their own RPI.
We need wins from Baylor [RPI 19], Mississippi State [20] and Cal [22] because we need them to stay in the Top 25 RPI for selection committee purposes.
For the same reasons we need wins from Liberty [32], USA [37], McNeese [39], Miami [43] and La Tech [44] to keep them in the Top 50, and from JMU [67] in hope that they can sneak into the Top 50 by season's end.

James Madison has no top 50 games left and only 3 top 100. They have a long way to go to get into the committee's good graces, so they better not lose until the conference tournament.
I'm not concerned about South Alabama, I don't expect them to lose another conference game the rest of the regular season. I just noticed that the road game against Mississippi State has been rescheduled for April 17.
Yes, Southern Mississippi needs to sweep Georgia State.

It is less critical for Mississippi State to stay in the top 25 than it is for Baylor and California; since we did not beat them, it may actually be better if they weren't in the top 25. This way, we don't have to worry about competing with them for a hosting spot and, if we sweep Texas State and LSU, 8-8 looks better than 8-10.
Baylor is in dire need of conference wins. They are 5-10 with series left against Texas (this weekend), UCF, BYU and Houston. Pretty small margin of error to stay in the top 25.
California is in a similar situation as Baylor. 4-8 conference record with series against UCLA (this weekend), Washington, Arizona State and Oregon State. We definitely need both Baylor and California to be winning games.

Other than Colorado State, all the other Cajun non-conference opponents should be winning their series this weekend.

[VObserver]

I don't disagree with any of this.

[RaginScotsman]

What was it that happened last year? No one in the RPI top 12 (I think we were 11) had not hosted until Louisiana?

The travel defense kind of made me think of a scenario that I'm sure will play out at some point. Maybe the committee looks at a higher RPI B10 or ACC team as a host and says "well, geography plays a factor. Switch them with team X from the South." When these conferences will literally have every team in every sport travel across the country multiple times for conference games.

[VObserver]

What was it that happened last year? No one in the RPI top 12 (I think we were 11) had not hosted until Louisiana?

The travel defense kind of made me think of a scenario that I'm sure will play out at some point. Maybe the committee looks at a higher RPI B10 or ACC team as a host and says "well, geography plays a factor. Switch them with team X from the South." When these conferences will literally have every team in every sport travel across the country multiple times for conference games.

We were 12 last year, and became the first 12 ever to not host. We didn't even get a #1 seed at another venue, but a #2 at Baton Rouge. It really wasn't a bad set up for us, but it was an insult to every non-power conference school in the country.

While I would love for Louisiana to host, I would rather be an 11 seed 'hosting' at Penn State or Northwestern than a 15 or 16 hosting in Lafayette.

[SlickRick]

It would be nice to host for the fans and the program, but you're right. 15 or 16 seed makes for a super hard super.