La Tech and Marshall impact

[GoneGolfin]

I have been getting questions regarding the impact of recent games, so am providing the following ...

Similar to what is to come with Marshall, the Prairie View A&M home win had a modest negative impact to the Cajuns' RPI last night ... a drop of .001370 (from .56299 to .56162).

A win over La Tech (all other things being equal) will increase the Cajuns' RPI to .56674 (increase of .00512), currently good for #46 in the rankings (just ahead of LSU). A loss would drop the Cajuns' RPI to .55746 (decrease of .00416), currently good for #54 in the rankings (just ahead of Old Dominion).

By itself (also not including prediction result from tonight), a sweep of Marshall will drop the Cajuns' RPI to .56134 (decrease of .00028) ... really negligible. Winning 2/3 results in a drop to .55242 (decrease of .00920) ... currently good for #60 in the RPI rankings.

Brian

[angeleast]

Thanks!!! Your our resident expert and it's appreciated

[Turbine]

The nuances are so intriguing.

Thanks

[Esqueleto]

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

[CajunVic]

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

That’s what LSU said.

[cajun_lannister]

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

Would need win 90% of the remaining games. GS to sneak into Q1 and play JMU , GS and CC in the belt tournament. Not impossible but very improbable.

[GoneGolfin]

Ironically enough ... a loss to Louisiana Tech tonight increases the odds that the Cajuns can log their first Q1 win (their win in Ruston earlier in the season). Reminder ... the win over Tech in Ruston becomes a Q1 game if Tech can make its way into the RPI Top 60 ... but the home game tonight is not Q1 unless Tech makes it into the RPI Top 25. This is how dumb and arbitrary the new Quartile components are as an evaluation metric. But this is what happens when you continue to put lipstick on a pig and do not have a sound statistical foundation.

Meanwhile, Nicholls State (#68) has propelled them into Q1 territory with its sweep last weekend of SLU ... but the Cajuns do not have a return game in Thibodaux this season. Maybe we should look to add a midweek game later in the season should Nicholls be firmly in the Top 60.

Southern Miss is moving up the RPI rankings, but is still quite a way from the #25 RPI ranking required for these to be Q1 games for the Cajuns. At #36, USM is .01750 away (.5739) from the #25 slot (.5914). Not impossible ... just hard. Again ... a win in Lafayette helps their cause (as opposed to a Cajun sweep) ... but would need plenty of other help.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Just win 2/3 from here on out and an at large should be locked up. I don't think there is a chance ihell that we host this year. Too many SWAC games on the schedule.

SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

[CajunNation]

SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

[CrazyCajun]

Would need win 90% of the remaining games. GS to sneak into Q1 and play JMU , GS and CC in the belt tournament. Not impossible but very improbable.

We play GS on the road, they are already Q1…so is coastal

[HOUCajun]

SWAC games is in no way the issue. The issue would be record against top teams ... meaning, show me the Q1 record. The Cajuns are 0-1 here. The question would likely be ... who did you play and beat?

If the Cajuns can have success against Coastal and Georgia Southern (and George Southern remains in the RPI Top 60), this important metric can be improved significantly. But I am not sure it is enough. That part of the schedule just is not there.

Brian

Is your context here our hosting resume?

[CrazyCajun]

Ironically enough ... a loss to Louisiana Tech tonight increases the odds that the Cajuns can log their first Q1 win (their win in Ruston earlier in the season). Reminder ... the win over Tech in Ruston becomes a Q1 game if Tech can make its way into the RPI Top 60 ... but the home game tonight is not Q1 unless Tech makes it into the RPI Top 25. This is how dumb and arbitrary the new Quartile components are as an evaluation metric. But this is what happens when you continue to put lipstick on a pig and do not have a sound statistical foundation.

Meanwhile, Nicholls State (#68) has propelled them into Q1 territory with its sweep last weekend of SLU ... but the Cajuns do not have a return game in Thibodaux this season. Maybe we should look to add a midweek game later in the season should Nicholls be firmly in the Top 60.

Southern Miss is moving up the RPI rankings, but is still quite a way from the #25 RPI ranking required for these to be Q1 games for the Cajuns. At #36, USM is .01750 away (.5739) from the #25 slot (.5914). Not impossible ... just hard. Again ... a win in Lafayette helps their cause (as opposed to a Cajun sweep) ... but would need plenty of other help.

Brian

Latech also has road series at Arizona and DBU on their schedule left, as well as SHSU, WKU and liberty. They have opportunity

[GoneGolfin]

Is your context here our hosting resume?

Yes ... I was responding to the "too many SWAC teams" comment ... which was in the context of the poster claiming it would be the reason the Cajuns cannot host.

Brian

[Esqueleto]

Do we have scheduling problem? If so, how should we build a schedule?

Appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thanks.

I would like to see us travel more midweek to places like A&M, MS State, Baylor, Arkansas, etc. instead of hosting RPI sucks. JMO

[Policarp]

I don't see how we would host......pretty much have to win out to sniff any chance. Even with 16 wins in a row......we are a bubble at best right now.