Coastal ... lock.
Louisiana ... they are assuming the Sun Belt tournament title (automatic) in these projections. If the Cajuns did not get the Sun Belt title, they would get a bid as conference champion ... but they would be a #3 seed with their current resume. 0-1 in Q1 is not a good look. They can fix that and I am hoping for as many opportunities as possible. Hence, pulling for teams like Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech.
Georgia Southern (#49 ranking) does not have the RPI and would be bubble out at present. But they can get there (and what will likely be at the expense of other Sun Belt teams).
James Madison cannot finish 7th in the conference with a .500 record and make the field as an at-large ... regardless of a #25 RPI ranking. They are also 6-9 vs. Q1+Q2 and 9-9 vs. Q1+Q2+Q3.
Southern Miss is definitely a bubble team here.
I think the number would be 3 if the season ended today. But all of these teams can solidify their positioning over the next several weeks. Georgia Southern started that process by knocking off South Carolina last week. But more needs to happen.
Brian