Softball Games of Interest, Week of 3/24- 3-31

[VObserver]

This week there are quite a few games besides the UL-App series that are important to the Cajuns, either for RPI purposes or for NCAA Committee purposes [having our opponents reach or maintain Top 25 or Top 50 RPI status].

Games for NCAA Committee purposes

LTU vs Liberty [3 games].. This series is RPI neutral for us, but we want Liberty to take 2 of 3 to move up in RPI from 50.
JMU vs GaST [3 games] .. JMU is at RPI of 49. We need this series to be rained out, as even a JMU sweep will likely drop them out of the Top 50, but a JMU sweep would help our RPI.
TxSt vs USA [3 games] .. there are a couple of interesting things going on here. We need South Al to stay in the Top 50, so they need to win at least 1 game here. We also need TxSt to stay in the Top 25, so they need to win at least one. The series is RPI neutral for us. Best case is USA wins 2. That would give us a 3 game lead over TxSt in the Conference race, while keeping TxSt in the Top 25 RPI.
MsSt vs FL [3 games] .. Best case for our RPI is Moo State sweep, but they need to win at least 1 to help maintain their Top 25 RPI.

Games for RPI
Team we want to win is listed first.

OU vs Wichita State
TxSt vs SHSU
Central Arkansas vs Arkansas
USM vs UAB [2 games]
Liberty vs UVa
New Mexico vs NMSU [2 games]
LaTech vs Grambling
South Al vs McNeese
Cal vs Weber State
Miami vs Pitt
JMU vs UVa
OU vs Ks [3 games]
Cal vs Utah [3 games]
LSU vs aTm [3 games]
Texas vs Ok St [3 games]
Baylor vs ISU [3 games]
Stanford vs Az [3 games]
Miami vs Buffalo [3 games]
New Mexico vs Nevada [3 games]
Colorado St vs SDSU [3 games]
Nicholls vs Lamar [3 games]
McNeese vs Northwestern St [3 games]
ULM vs Marshall [3 games]
Coastal Carolina vs GaSo [3 games]
Chattanooga vs ETSU [3 games]
SFA vs Seattle [3 games]
Central Ark vs Stetson [3 games]

[Turbine]

Good stuff.

Thanks

[SlickRick]

Yes, good stuff indeed!

[VObserver]

Games from 3/25

OU vs Wichita State Postponed
TxSt vs SHSU Tx St 6 SHSU 4
Central Arkansas vs Arkansas Canceled
USM vs UAB [2 games] Both Canceled
Liberty vs UVa UVa 3 Liberty 1
New Mexico vs NMSU [2 games] NMSU won both
LaTech vs Grambling La Tech 8 Grambling 0
South Al vs McNeese McNeese 3 South Al 2

[Turbine]

Does McNeese beating USA help or hurt or neither?

[VObserver]

Does McNeese beating USA help or hurt or neither?

Since we played USA 3 times and McNeese only twice McNeese winning is a slight negative. As long as both stay in the Top 50 RPI, the 5 Top 50 wins for us against those two probably outweighs the slight loss of RPI for us. The difference may not be enough to make a difference in our RPI rank.

[CajunSID]

Since we played USA 3 times and McNeese only twice McNeese winning is a slight negative. As long as both stay in the Top 50 RPI, the 5 Top 50 wins for us against those two probably outweighs the slight loss of RPI for us. The difference may not be enough to make a difference in our RPI rank.

Your research and insight is always on point. RPI watching in March makes little sense though. Hundreds of games to be played that will impact RPI…most notably UL’s.

[VObserver]

This has been discussed before, but is worth repeating. Our actual RPI is a 4 digit decimal calculated by the following formula:

[Our winning Percentage/4] + [Our Opponents' winning Percentage/2] + [Our Opponents Opponents winning Percentage/4]

There are adjustments made to Our Opponents records to remove the influence of their games against us before that calculation is made. Because the exact nature of these adjustments is essentially an NCAA secret, RPI from any other source is an estimate.

The integer that is normally called "RPI" by literally everyone is the number representing how our actual RPI ranks among the RPI values of all schools. This is a much easier, though much less accurate, representation of where any team stands relative to others.

Icitsh can probably give a better explanation.

[Turbine]

Your research and insight is always on point. RPI watching in March makes little sense though. Hundreds of games to be played that will impact RPI…most notably UL’s.

Its the journey for me

Otherwise "just" reading the sports history books would suffice.

[VObserver]

Your research and insight is always on point. RPI watching in March makes little sense though. Hundreds of games to be played that will impact RPI…most notably UL’s.

Very true; but, just as some people are statistics geeks, I am an RPI geek. I can't help myself. Besides, it is fun to see how non-conference scheduling impacts the perceived quality of teams, most particularly those teams in the AAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West and CUSA, which are generally the only conferences outside the money group [SEC, B12, P12, B10 and ACC] that routinely get two or more teams in the NCAA Tournament.

[GoneGolfin]

Your research and insight is always on point. RPI watching in March makes little sense though. Hundreds of games to be played that will impact RPI…most notably UL’s.

This is not correct. We are at the point of the season (and have been for a couple of weeks) where there is sufficient connectivity ... meaning the RPI has achieved stability (in measuring what it measures) and is useful to gauge both where a team is ... as well as prospects for moving up/down/hold given the remaining schedule.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

This has been discussed before, but is worth repeating. Our actual RPI is a 4 digit decimal calculated by the following formula:

[Our winning Percentage/4] + [Our Opponents' winning Percentage/2] + [Our Opponents Opponents winning Percentage/4]

There are adjustments made to Our Opponents records to remove the influence of their games against us before that calculation is made. Because the exact nature of these adjustments is essentially an NCAA secret, RPI from any other source is an estimate.

You are referring to two different things.

1) The "adjustments made to our opponents records" you mention is simply the method by which each teams' OWP is calculated. When an OWP is calculated for a given team, the team's results against each opponent is removed from that opponents' OWP contribution. For example, Wright State contributes an OWP of .5714 (weighted by three games) to the Cajuns' OWP. This is because a record of 12-9 (.5714) is used, not 13-11 (.5417).

However, note that your own winning percentage contributes to your OOWP calculation. This is why winning is not 25% of the formula, but slightly more. That is, your opponent's OWP includes your WP, which is used to calculate your OOWP.

2) The secret adjustments are not really secrets. They are adjustments (bonuses/penalties) for non-conference road games vs. certain RPI ranked competition. They have adjusted these constants over time some ... but they are easy to reverse engineer from the data.

Brian