Ragin' Dave Northwestern State Breakdown
Please listen to the Podcast it is posted, but here is a quick breakdown. This first one against FCS teams are always the hardest because the information is hard to find, and this team is completely different from 2022 team.
Northwestern is coming off a 4-7 very disappointing season, but it was an improvement from 2021 where they only won 3 games. In fact, Northwestern State has not had a winning season since 2008 when they went 7-5, but they did have two seasons back-to-back 6-6 in 2013 and 2014. But it has been a long stretch of losing for Nw State. Brad Laird is the head coach at Northwestern State and is 16-35 in his 5 seasons and has his best season in 2018, his first year when he went 5-6. Laird has a long history at NwSt, starting in 1996 as a GA for them, and back in 2003-2005 as the DC and then back in 2008-2011 as DC and then DC again in 2017 before becoming the HC in 2018.
Last year was rough for the Demons, they did have wins against bad Lamar, Houston Christian, and Texas A&M-Commerce teams, and one surprise win vs Nicholls in the middle of the season, but other than that it was some really crushing losses to Montana, Grambling, USM, Sam Houston, SLU, and Incarnate Word, with one close lose to Eastern Illinois. This team does have some weapons on offense that are returning as well as some interesting transfer names. This is always a tough preview because you just don’t know from one season to another what a team will have, but I will do my best.
If you want to find a bright spot on this team, it was probably the offense, most specifically the passing offense, the run game was not that good. They only averaged 21.55 points per game while giving up almost 40 points per game. In total offense they averaged 381.7 yards per game, while giving up almost 500 yards per game. But of their 381 ypg, 268+ per game were through the air, mostly because they were playing catchup all game. They only averaged about 113 yards per game on the ground and only 3.5 yards per attempt. They were also very turnover heavy as they through 18 picks on the season vs only 21 TDs. They also lost 9 fumbles on the year, meaning their turnover margin was -16, that just aint good.
QB—They had a pretty good one, as far as numbers go last year in Zachary Clement who threw 19 TDs on the season and 2498 yards. Clement was a rising Junior this year from LCA in Lafayette, but has decided to transfer to SLU for his last two seasons, probably because of the talent that Coach Laird has brought in. I think the projected starter will be Tyler Vander Waal (6’4 220), Vander Waal started his college career at Wyoming where he had 9 starts in 17 games then transferred to Idaho State where he played 2 seasons, he was Big Sky Newcomer of the year in 2021. I think his experience and size will give him the edge, but the 2 other transfers are also guys who are quality backups. Quaterius Hawkins (6’0 180) Senior transfer from Grambling and Chance Newman (6’3 215) who started his career at VMI and later transferred to Jacksonville State are both Senior transfers with experience. Vander Waal has the most experience at a higher level, so I think he will be the guy. He is a pro style QB. I don’t foresee Vander Waal being much of a threat on the ground, but he is a big strong kid with a lively arm. They also seem to like a young man JT Fayard (6’5 220) from Katy, Texas who might be the QB of the future in Demon land.
RB—Clement, the QB last year was the Demon’s 2nd leading rusher on the team, so they lost to a team that was not great at running the ball. They do return their leading rusher in Kennieth Lacy (5’9 185) and their 3rd leading rusher in Scooter Adams (5’9 180). Both very similar types of backs. Lacy only had 414 yards on 88 carries for a 4.5-yard average and 3 TD’s, while Adams had 244 yards on 65 carries or 3.5-yard average and no TD’s. But the upgrade for sure at RB is a transfer from Eastern Michigan, Darius Boone Jr (5’11 200), who in his years at EMU amassed 802 yards and 11 TDs in 29 games and 14 starts at EMU. He is a different type of runner than Adams or Lacy, a lot more physical. I think he will be the feature back for them and pepper in Adams and Lacy as different smaller shiftier backs. Very odd for Boone as he was coming off a pretty good 2021 season where he rushed for almost 500 yards, last year he had less than 100 yards for EMU, including a game vs the Cajuns where he had 1 carry for 1 yard. Regardless, I still see him as the main guy for the Demons.
WR/TE—This team had some good numbers at the top end last year and almost everyone returns. The leader is Zach Patterson (5’11 180) who had 83 catches for 710 yards and 5 TD’s last year, they do lose their 2nd leading guy in Javon Antonio who had 64 receptions and 6 TD’s. But Ke’Nard King (5’10 170) returns who had 23 catches for 360 yards, Jaheim Walters (6’2 175) who had 25 catches for 274 yards and Travon Jones (6’7 220) a very good TE, who had 20 catches for 220 yards. They do add 4 guys from the transfer portal, none of which had many stats at their previous schools, but come from some pretty good programs, including Micah Jernigan from USM, Dennis Smith from Duke, Myles Kitt-Denton from Central Arkansas, and Kobe Stewart from FAU. All of which should see the field this season. As well as Twon Hines, who the coaches are high on as well as Stanley King.
OL—This team must replace allot from a weak OL from last year, including several underclassmen who played a lot who don’t seem to be on the roster this year. One returner that is a good player for them is D’Andre Richard (6’3 300) who played in 9 games for them last year. Another is a transfer from CMU Cameron Vaughn (6’6 300). With so much turnover on this team from last year to this year it is hard to see what the OL will look like. But I think the two names I listed will be two of the starters. Quenton Ross (6’3 300) is probably going to be the center, he comes in from Garden City CC, where he was a starter for them.
DL—Donovan Green (6’0 265) is an undersized but effective NT for the Demons and he returns. Last year he had 31 tackles with 2 TFL’s, he also had 6 QBH’s. This team, unfortunately for them, did not get a lot of production out of the DL last season, so the turnover was huge here including reaching deep into the transfer portal. Ray Gibson (6’2 305) returns but that is about it as far as the regulars from last year go, but from the portal they get Jeremiah Bodwin (6’4 225) DE, Trevion Sneed (6’2 242) from SMU, Ty Ely (6’2 255) DE from NMSU, Peyton Beckley (6’1 280) DT from ULM, Nazir Sy (6’3 300) DT from Akron, WKU and Butler CC, I think he will be a starter for them, as he has played quite a bit at his former stops. This team has retooled on the OL and DL. Mostly because these were areas of concern from 2022, we shall see how the approach works.
LB—This was a decent area for the Demons in 2022 and they got better with one move. Justice Galloway-Velazquez (6’2 260) will be the man for them at LB, this is a young man that was a first team All-Big South performer at Campbel and an honorable mention All American there as well. He is that good. He will be partnered with the leading tackler from last year Jared Pedraza (6’1 225) who recorded 70 tackles, 11 TFL’s and 1.5 sacks last year including 1 INT. That will make a formidable duo at LB. Jordan Banks (6’2 225) who missed some time last year also returns, he started his career at Arizona State and looks to be pretty good when he is available. The linebackers on this team, at least the starting guys, should be pretty good, the question will be the depth.
DB/S—Again, the LB’s are pretty good, but returning are the safeties and it starts with 2nd team All-Conference Safety Kevin Davis Jr (6’0 190) who had 51 tackles last season including 6 TFL’s. He should be a good one for them. Unfortunately, they lost two pretty good Safeties in Jacob Washington and PJ Herrington who were 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles last season. As we have spoken about in the past, if your safeties are leading your team (they had #2, 3 and 4) on the team in tackles being DB’s) you have a problem up front. Their best cover corner, William Hooper, is gone so they will have to get some help there. Lots of new faces there and most are young incoming players either through JUCO or HS ranks.
Special Teams—Special teams were not special for the Demons, at least not in the FG department, they attempted just 5 FG last year making only 3 of them, but the good news is that kicker is gone, and they now have a new competition for PK. But it will probably be Brett Money (5’9” 180) transfer from NMSU who played a little there and was perfect on PAT’s. Scott Roblow returns as punter for them. He had a 39.98 average for them last season but did have a long of 71 and 10 of his 65 were in the 20. In the return game they must replace PJ Herrington who was their main punt returner. They do return both Zach Patterson and Ke’Nard King is back on kickoffs, but he only averaged 18 and 16 yards per return respectively.
Overall, this team is hard to gauge, you have a coach that is on the very hot seat as well as a team that lost a ton of players off a not so good team but used the transfer portal to go out and get a ton of players to replace players that they lost. They also have a rough schedule as they start the season vs two FBS schools in us and La Tech and face two top 25 teams inside their conference in SLU and Incarnate Word. So, in an 11-game schedule they are looking up at 4 games that they will be huge underdogs in. They do have some winnable games in Houston Baptist, Lamar, and Texas A&M Commerce in conference and Eastern Illinois out of conference.
Prediction
Cajuns 41
Demon 13
I do believe that the Demons will be better this year, but I just don’t see where more than 4 or 5 wins can come from with this schedule.
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Originally Posted by RaginDave
Three unanswered questions before Northwestern State
