Analyzing the Bubble Part II

[GoneGolfin]

Well, we had two stolen bids today, possible three (UNCW was on the bubble). I consider Xavier also to be a stolen bid. This leaves the at-large pool uncomfortably low.

Here are what I consider to be the 58 locks (current RPI rank included). Note that I removed NC State from the lock list, but I still believe their chances to be very good.

#26 East Carolina
#157 Tulane (A)
#124 Maine (A)
#176 George Mason (A)
#1 Wake Forest
#6 Clemson
#10 Virginia
#12 Miami
#18 Boston College
#25 Duke
#27 North Carolina
#90 Lipscomb (A)
#17 Oklahoma State
#24 West Virginia
#28 Texas
#33 TCU
#22 Connecticut
#44 Xavier (A)
#13 Campbell (A)
#32 Iowa
#30 Indiana
#35 Maryland
#65 Cal State-Fullerton (A)
#31 Northeastern
#39 UNCW
#16 Dallas Baptist
#67 Charlotte (A)
#77 Wright State (A)
#116 Pennsylvania (A)
#99 Rider (A)
#101 Ball State (A)
#9 Indiana State (A)
#104 San Jose State (A)
#111 Central Connecticut (A)
#114 Eastern Illinois (A)
#15 Stanford
#34 Oregon (A)
#37 Oregon State
#36 Washington
#92 Army
#2 Kentucky
#3 Arkansas
#4 Florida
#5 LSU
#7 Vanderbilt
#8 South Carolina
#11 Alabama
#19 Auburn
#20 Tennessee
#29 Texas A&M
#62 Samford (A)
#108 Nicholls (A)
#76 Oral Roberts (A)
#14 Coastal Carolina
#21 Southern Mississippi (A)
#153 Florida A&M (A)
#70 Sam Houston (A)
#81 Santa Clara (A)

This leaves six spots remaining for the following bubble teams. I have eliminated some in red. After the obvious eliminations, we have 11 teams competing for 6 spots.

(RPI Rank and Top 25 RPI and Q1 records included)
#23 North Carolina State (5-12, 10-17)
#38 Troy (2-5, 4-6)
#40 Oklahoma (6-9, 12-13)
#41 Texas Tech (5-6, 12-13)
#42 Georgia (11-16, 11-19)
#41 Louisville (7-16, 10-17)
#45 Arizona (4-4, 8-12)
#46 Kent State (0-0, 0-1)
#47 Louisiana (6-8, 7-10)
#48 Virginia Tech (5-14, 6-16)
#49 Cal-Irvine (0-0, 0-1)
#50 Missouri (4-19, 10-21)
#51 Mississippi State (7-18, 11-22)
#52 Arizona State (0-5, 8-14)
#53 USC (2-3-1, 5-15-1)
#54 Notre Dame (7-9, 10-12)
#55 Kansas State (2-5, 12-14)
#56 UC Santa Barbara (0-0, 6-4)
#57 Wofford (0-2, 3-6)
#58 Florida Gulf Coast (0-1, 2-1)
#59 Elon (4-4, 7-8)

Brian

[cajundiehard]

Appreciate your work Brian!

Hopefully the Costal AD on the committee will educate them regarding the Cajuns and push for the 5th rated Sun Belt.

I truly think this team could make some noise in a regional.

[GoneGolfin]

This leaves six spots remaining for the following bubble teams. I have eliminated some in red. After the obvious eliminations, we have 11 teams competing for 6 spots.

(RPI Rank and Top 25 RPI and Q1 records included)
#23 North Carolina State (5-12, 10-17)
#38 Troy (2-5, 4-6)
#40 Oklahoma (6-9, 12-13)
#41 Texas Tech (5-6, 12-13)
#42 Georgia (11-16, 11-19)
#41 Louisville (7-16, 10-17)
#45 Arizona (4-4, 8-12)
#46 Kent State (0-0, 0-1)
#47 Louisiana (6-8, 7-10)
#48 Virginia Tech (5-14, 6-16)
#49 Cal-Irvine (0-0, 0-1)
#50 Missouri (4-19, 10-21)
#51 Mississippi State (7-18, 11-22)
#52 Arizona State (0-5, 8-14)
#53 USC (2-3-1, 5-15-1)
#54 Notre Dame (7-9, 10-12)
#55 Kansas State (2-5, 12-14)
#56 UC Santa Barbara (0-0, 6-4)
#57 Wofford (0-2, 3-6)
#58 Florida Gulf Coast (0-1, 2-1)
#59 Elon (4-4, 7-8)

Further elaborating on the above, see here why I think the Cajuns should be in over UC Irvine. Also something to think about ... if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, they had better be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. UC Irvine.

How Brian would do it (Final 6 spots) ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Troy
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Notre Dame (7-9 vs. RPI Top 25 ... 15-15 in #1 RPI Conference)

What I fear the committee will do ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Troy
Notre Dame
Kansas State (note that KSU is only 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 25)

Brian

[CajunVic]

Wait, wait, wait . . . What reason do you fear the committee may use to jump K State into the field over the Cajuns . . .

Also, if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, shouldn’t they be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. Troy?

[MountainDew]

Wait, wait, wait . . . What reason do you fear the committee may use to jump K State into the field over the Cajuns . . .

The committee doesn’t need criteria. They will make up whatever lie they want and move on.

[CajunVic]

The committee doesn’t need criteria. They will make up whatever lie they want and move on.

True, very true . . .

[TuffGuy84]

Personally, I believe its between us and Troy, not us and kstate. I think the committee will make the argument for 3 teams from sunbelt. It'll be dicey.

[ZoomZoom]

Appreciate your work Brian!

Hopefully the Costal AD on the committee will educate them regarding the Cajuns and push for the 5th rated Sun Belt.

I truly think this team could make some noise in a regional.

I would not be surprised if the CCU AD had to burn his “political capital” to keep CCU at home for a regional.

I’m going to go about my day. Recorder is set, and I’ll come home later and watch. Maybe I’ll be surprised, maybe I won’t.

Thank you Brian for all you do. You keep an otherwise almost hopeless situation interesting, which is great for Louisiana fandom. Keep the faith sir.

[angeleast]

The selection show is at 12 pm?

[Grantvb]

I would not be surprised if the CCU AD had to burn his “political capital” to keep CCU at home for a regional.

zoom, that’s a good point. “Host, or lobby for your conference kin and be lumped with the rest of them…”

[Grantvb]

Selection Show is at 11 AM CDT

[angeleast]

Selection Show is at 11 AM CDT

Got ya. Thanks!!! Fingers crossed and praying the God's of baseball do the right thing!!! We ere not ready for the cursed summer doldrums waiting for football team to report in the fall

[Dad04]

Brian....What is considered a normal number of stolen bids? TY for the hard work!!

[Big Buds]

I can imagine UC-Irvine has a better shot because the only regional out west is at Stanford?

[GoneGolfin]

Further elaborating on the above, see here why I think the Cajuns should be in over UC Irvine. Also something to think about ... if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, they had better be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. UC Irvine.

How Brian would do it (Final 6 spots) ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Troy
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Notre Dame (7-9 vs. RPI Top 25 ... 15-15 in #1 RPI Conference)

What I fear the committee will do ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Troy
Notre Dame
Kansas State (note that KSU is only 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 25)

Some final points to make here concerning the evaluation of UC Irvine ... which I made here. I keep seeing on the various projection sites (notably D1Baseball) that UC Irvine is essentially being given a pass because they were 18-12 vs. the RPI Top 100. But nobody is going any deeper. It is the makeup of those games that matter. Let's forget for a moment that UC Irvine has a total of one game played against the RPI Top 50 (0-1) ... a general proxy for what is considered to be an at-large team ... an important measuring stick. The excuse is that UC Irvine has a bunch of games just outside of the RPI Top 50. Ok, the Cajuns have a 5-0 record vs. #60 Texas State. But let's take those 50's games for UCI into account such that we can form a more well rounded and complete opinion.

If we take the weighted average RPI opponent for the Cajuns' RPI Top 100 games, we have an RPI average of 42.69. The median is 38.

UCI does not have a single game against an RPI opponent (45 is the highest ... 0-1 vs. Arizona State) that is above Louisiana's weighted average RPI of 42.69. The same obviously goes for the median.

UCI's weighted average RPI opponent for their RPI Top 100 games of 67.0. The median is 65.

Louisiana
Average RPI (Top 100 Games): 42.69
Median RPI (Top 100 Games): 38

UC Irvine
Average RPI (Top 100 Games): 67.0
Median RPI (Top 100 Games): 65

Meanwhile, even using a weighted average RPI and median does not fully represent the gap between the resumes fairly (understates the Cajuns' case). As you know, it is more difficult to play a schedule that is comprised of a number of high RPI games ... but averaged in with some lower RPI games (bringing the average down) ... vs. ... playing all games on/or around the median and/or average (which is essentially what UCI has done). The standard deviation is simply not there for UCI and this makes it easier to win.

Also an important mention in the context of rationale that I have heard ... W/L record vs. the tournament field. Record against the field does not matter when it is comprised of the lowest rung of at-large bids and auto-bid winners. This is UCI's resume.

I hope the NCAA selection committee actually does a more intensive deep dive when examining UC Irvine's resume ... rather than look at surface level metrics that leave an incredible amount of information out of the analysis. And this is not just UC Irvine against Louisiana ... this is UC Irvine measuring up against several different candidate schools.

Brian