Analyzing the Bubble Part II

[GoneGolfin]

I hope you’re right. If that is truly the case, Louisiana should get in with their resume and RPI.

Big difference here. The committee is trying to select the best teams possible. Intent is the key here. Their opinion may differ from yours ... but they are attempting to select the best teams.

If they select a team out west to the field because Palo Alto has a regional (over a more deserving team), this is explicitly not trying to select the best teams (fully) to the field.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Wait, wait, wait . . . What reason do you fear the committee may use to jump K State into the field over the Cajuns . . .

Kansas State's 12-14 Q1 record could be used to justify ... as well as tying for fourth place in the Big XII. Overall SOS could also be used. While I think this is ridiculously redundant ... they still do it. I swear that selection committee members could not pass a basic statistics exam.

Another thing that I believe will come into play ... Kansas State will be evaluated against conference mate Oklahoma. K-State swept the Sooners and finished 13-11 in the conference while Oklahoma had a losing record (11-13). I think Oklahoma gets picked over K-State due to RPI differential. We have already seen that hint in the national seed/host site selections (South Carolina, Indiana State). The gap here is 15 spots. Meanwhile, I think it will be difficult for the committee to select Oklahoma while leaving Kansas State at home.

I am not saying I agree with it. But I am stating my concern with what the selection committee will do.

Also, if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, shouldn’t they be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. Troy?

That ... and RPI ranking (Oklahoma).

Louisiana and Troy is a different scenario. They are conference mates (tied for 3rd place), playing a number of common games. Troy has a higher RPI by 9 spots. This is not insignificant. Many many times the committee has used RPI differentials like this to drive a decision. Troy also defeated Louisiana on the road 2/3. These significant hurdles are not enough to override what is a 4-6 record vs. the RPI Top 50 (which is not bad) and 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 25. Meanwhile, their RPI Top 100 is 16-14 (comprised of more breadth than UCI). I think the committee evaluates Troy over Louisiana and I do as well.

Brian

[CajunVic]

So, in simple terms, there is enough there, there in that bunch up between 61 and 68 to put in and or exclude any particular team the committee wants to take action for or against . . .

[LifeTimeCajun]

In the past month the Cajuns have beat #1 lsu, #7 coastal Carolina three times, and #20 southern miss.

[angeleast]

Well, 1 hour to find out!

[GoneGolfin]

Appreciate your work Brian!

Hopefully the Costal AD on the committee will educate them regarding the Cajuns and push for the 5th rated Sun Belt.

I truly think this team could make some noise in a regional.

Thanks, cajundiehard.

Brian

[jaxmc1023]

I swear that selection committee members could not pass a basic statistics exam.

I usually imagine they say "well if Louisiana played K State in a three game series, who would win?"

And then slant toward P5 almost every time

[Dad04]

I swear that selection committee members could not pass a basic statistics exam.

Brian

Probably not a bad bet. A bunch were probably Kinesiology or Sports and Recreational Management majors.

[ZZeebart21]

Will the announcement be on ESPN?

[angeleast]

Will the announcement be on ESPN?

Espn 2