Analyzing the Bubble Part II

[Dad04]

Brian....What is considered a normal number of stolen bids? TY for the hard work!!

[Big Buds]

I can imagine UC-Irvine has a better shot because the only regional out west is at Stanford?

[GoneGolfin]

Further elaborating on the above, see here why I think the Cajuns should be in over UC Irvine. Also something to think about ... if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, they had better be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. UC Irvine.

How Brian would do it (Final 6 spots) ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Troy
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Notre Dame (7-9 vs. RPI Top 25 ... 15-15 in #1 RPI Conference)

What I fear the committee will do ...
North Carolina State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Troy
Notre Dame
Kansas State (note that KSU is only 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 25)

Some final points to make here concerning the evaluation of UC Irvine ... which I made here. I keep seeing on the various projection sites (notably D1Baseball) that UC Irvine is essentially being given a pass because they were 18-12 vs. the RPI Top 100. But nobody is going any deeper. It is the makeup of those games that matter. Let's forget for a moment that UC Irvine has a total of one game played against the RPI Top 50 (0-1) ... a general proxy for what is considered to be an at-large team ... an important measuring stick. The excuse is that UC Irvine has a bunch of games just outside of the RPI Top 50. Ok, the Cajuns have a 5-0 record vs. #60 Texas State. But let's take those 50's games for UCI into account such that we can form a more well rounded and complete opinion.

If we take the weighted average RPI opponent for the Cajuns' RPI Top 100 games, we have an RPI average of 42.69. The median is 38.

UCI does not have a single game against an RPI opponent (45 is the highest ... 0-1 vs. Arizona State) that is above Louisiana's weighted average RPI of 42.69. The same obviously goes for the median.

UCI's weighted average RPI opponent for their RPI Top 100 games of 67.0. The median is 65.

Louisiana
Average RPI (Top 100 Games): 42.69
Median RPI (Top 100 Games): 38

UC Irvine
Average RPI (Top 100 Games): 67.0
Median RPI (Top 100 Games): 65

Meanwhile, even using a weighted average RPI and median does not fully represent the gap between the resumes fairly (understates the Cajuns' case). As you know, it is more difficult to play a schedule that is comprised of a number of high RPI games ... but averaged in with some lower RPI games (bringing the average down) ... vs. ... playing all games on/or around the median and/or average (which is essentially what UCI has done). The standard deviation is simply not there for UCI and this makes it easier to win.

Also an important mention in the context of rationale that I have heard ... W/L record vs. the tournament field. Record against the field does not matter when it is comprised of the lowest rung of at-large bids and auto-bid winners. This is UCI's resume.

I hope the NCAA selection committee actually does a more intensive deep dive when examining UC Irvine's resume ... rather than look at surface level metrics that leave an incredible amount of information out of the analysis. And this is not just UC Irvine against Louisiana ... this is UC Irvine measuring up against several different candidate schools.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I can imagine UC-Irvine has a better shot because the only regional out west is at Stanford?

Irrelevant. They are trying to select what they feel are the best teams ... period.

Brian

[Big Buds]

Irrelevant. They are trying to select what they feel are the best teams ... period.

Brian

I hope you’re right. If that is truly the case, Louisiana should get in with their resume and RPI.

[CajunVic]

Location only comes into play for assignment once the 64 teams are selected . . .

[CajunVic]

Whose resume is better, Troy or Louisiana?

[GoneGolfin]

Brian....What is considered a normal number of stolen bids? TY for the hard work!!

This ranges anywhere from 0 to 4. 5 would be an outlier and I do not know if we have ever had that many. I remember a few times when there were 4. Typical is close to 2.

I think everyone would agree that Tulane and Charlotte are stolen bids. Had Xavier lost in the conference tournament title game, that would have given them a 3-13 record vs. the RPI Top 50 (10-15 vs. the RPI Top 100). Their RPI ranking would have been about 50 as well. I do not think they would have been selected. That would be 3 stolen bids.

A debate can certainly be had for UNCW ... but a loss to Northeastern would have given them an RPI in the high 40's (48, 49, etc.). They did win the #7 RPI conference regular season. But they were also 0-7 vs. the RPI Top 25 and a loss to Northeastern would have left them at 7-11 vs. the RPI Top 100. It would have been close.

So I would say we had 3 stolen bids ... possibly 4.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

I hope you’re right. If that is truly the case, Louisiana should get in with their resume and RPI.

Big difference here. The committee is trying to select the best teams possible. Intent is the key here. Their opinion may differ from yours ... but they are attempting to select the best teams.

If they select a team out west to the field because Palo Alto has a regional (over a more deserving team), this is explicitly not trying to select the best teams (fully) to the field.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Wait, wait, wait . . . What reason do you fear the committee may use to jump K State into the field over the Cajuns . . .

Kansas State's 12-14 Q1 record could be used to justify ... as well as tying for fourth place in the Big XII. Overall SOS could also be used. While I think this is ridiculously redundant ... they still do it. I swear that selection committee members could not pass a basic statistics exam.

Another thing that I believe will come into play ... Kansas State will be evaluated against conference mate Oklahoma. K-State swept the Sooners and finished 13-11 in the conference while Oklahoma had a losing record (11-13). I think Oklahoma gets picked over K-State due to RPI differential. We have already seen that hint in the national seed/host site selections (South Carolina, Indiana State). The gap here is 15 spots. Meanwhile, I think it will be difficult for the committee to select Oklahoma while leaving Kansas State at home.

I am not saying I agree with it. But I am stating my concern with what the selection committee will do.

Also, if some of these schools like Oklahoma, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, or Notre Dame make the field, the committee will explain it was because of their record vs. the RPI Top 50. If that is the case, shouldn’t they be consistent and apply the same criteria to the Cajuns vs. Troy?

That ... and RPI ranking (Oklahoma).

Louisiana and Troy is a different scenario. They are conference mates (tied for 3rd place), playing a number of common games. Troy has a higher RPI by 9 spots. This is not insignificant. Many many times the committee has used RPI differentials like this to drive a decision. Troy also defeated Louisiana on the road 2/3. These significant hurdles are not enough to override what is a 4-6 record vs. the RPI Top 50 (which is not bad) and 2-5 vs. the RPI Top 25. Meanwhile, their RPI Top 100 is 16-14 (comprised of more breadth than UCI). I think the committee evaluates Troy over Louisiana and I do as well.

Brian

[CajunVic]

So, in simple terms, there is enough there, there in that bunch up between 61 and 68 to put in and or exclude any particular team the committee wants to take action for or against . . .

[LifeTimeCajun]

In the past month the Cajuns have beat #1 lsu, #7 coastal Carolina three times, and #20 southern miss.