Analyzing the Bubble
Taking a quick look at the candidates for the NCAA field of 64, I arrived at what I would consider 56 locks (auto/at-large bids). This leaves 8 slots for the remaining pool of candidates. There has already been one stolen bid (Xavier). There are three more possibilities tomorrow, which would reduce the 8 slots by the number of additional stolen bids. These potential stolen bids tomorrow are ...
#165 Tulane (defeating #21 East Carolina)
#44 UNCW or #58 Elon (defeating #32 Northeastern)
#72 Charlotte (defeating #13 Dallas Baptist)
The 56 that I have as locks (current RPI rank included) ...
#21 East Carolina (Auto/At-large)
#124 Maine (A)
#175 George Mason (A)
#1 Wake Forest
#6 Clemson
#10 Virginia
#12 Miami
#18 Boston College
#22 North Carolina State
#23 Duke
#27 North Carolina
Atlantic Sun winner (#57 Florida Gulf Coast or #93 Lipscomb)
#14 Oklahoma State
#24 West Virginia
#30 Texas
#34 TCU
#25 Connecticut
#44 Xavier (A)
#15 Campbell (A)
#29 Iowa
#31 Indiana
#37 Maryland
#66 Cal State-Fullerton (A)
#32 Northeastern
#13 Dallas Baptist
#78 Wright State (A)
#116 Pennsylvania (A)
#99 Rider (A)
#101 Ball State (A)
#9 Indiana State (A)
Mountain West Winner (#105 San Jose State or #134 Air Force)
Northeast Winner (#117 Central Connecticut or #234 Wagner)
#114 Eastern Illinois (A)
#17 Stanford
#33 Oregon (A)
#35 Oregon State
#36 Washington
#92 Army
#2 Kentucky
#3 Arkansas
#4 Florida
#5 LSU
#7 Vanderbilt
#8 South Carolina
#11 Alabama
#19 Auburn
#20 Tennessee
#28 Texas A&M
#62 Samford (A)
#108 Nicholls (A)
#75 Oral Roberts (A)
#16 Coastal Carolina
#26 Southern Mississippi
SWAC Winner (#158 Florida A&M or #168 Bethune Cookman)
#71 Sam Houston (A)
#81 Santa Clara (A)
Meanwhile, the bubble teams that will be competing for the final 8 spots (less if there are more stolen bids) ...
22 teams listed below. I took the speculative liberty of eliminating some more ... leaving 12 teams for those final spots.
(RPI Rank and Q1 record included)
#38 Troy (4-6)
#39 Oklahoma (12-14)
#40 Texas Tech (12-13)
#41 Louisville (10-17)
#42 Georgia (11-16)
#44 UNCW (7-10)
#45 Arizona (9-15-1)
#46 Louisiana (7-9)
#47 Kent State (0-1)
#48 Virginia Tech (6-16)
#49 Arizona State (8-13-1)
#50 Cal-Irvine (3-1)
#51 Missouri (10-21)
#52 Mississippi State (11-22)
#53 UC Santa Barbara (losing to Hawaii tonight ... 6-9 T5th) (6-4)
#54 USC (8-15-1)
#55 Kansas State 12-14)
#56 Notre Dame (10-12)
#58 Elon (7-8)
#59 Wofford (3-6)
#63 Georgia Tech (10-21)
#69 Grand Canyon (2-7)
It will be close, but I like what I see (for Troy and Louisiana) ... provided we do not have more than one stolen bid on Sunday,
Brian
Quote
Re: Analyzing the Bubble
Originally Posted by angeleast
