Analyzing the Bubble

[RaginScotsman]

Greenies hitting their way back. Only down 4-5 and Tulane has 2 on with no outs.

[angeleast]

Greenies hitting their way back. Only down 4-5 and Tulane has 2 on with no outs.

Elon vs. Northeast tied at 1 bottom of 1st

[GoneGolfin]

The only downside to Tulane losing is that it will affect our RPI. The teams in the 45 -> low 50's are very tightly packed. A ranking spot could come down to .0001 or .0002. We are basically tied with #46 Arizona (less than .0001 separation). #51 UC Irvine is a mere .0018 behind the Cajuns. #52 Mississippi State is only .0022 back. Not that the Bulldogs are a thread to be selected to the field ... but the Cajuns want as high of an RPI ranking as possible.

Some quick analysis shows that (all other things being equal) a Cajuns loss to Southern Miss would shrink their RPI to about .5556 (from .5569) ... a small loss. But the rankings are very tight in proximity of the Cajuns. This would presently slot the Cajuns at #48 in the RPI rankings ... just .0001 behind #47 Kent State ... but also just .0002 ahead of current #48 Virginia Tech ... and only .0003 ahead of #49 Arizona State, .0005 ahead of #50 Missouri and #51 UC Irvine. While #52 Mississippi State (behind only .0009) is also very close, I do not think a Tulane loss (coupled with a Cajun loss to USM) will bring them quite that far down. But it is crazy close with these teams. A Tulane loss (and Cajun loss) could potentially bring the Cajuns down to #52. Anywhere from 48 to 52 ... all other things being equal (outside of Tulane). There is not that much all other things being equal left, either.

Brian

[RaginScotsman]

Greenies hitting their way back. Only down 4-5 and Tulane has 2 on with no outs.

Passed ball, wild pitch gives wave the lead. Come on ECU.

[GoneGolfin]

Taking a quick look at the candidates for the NCAA field of 64, I arrived at what I would consider 56 locks (auto/at-large bids). This leaves 8 slots for the remaining pool of candidates. There has already been one stolen bid (Xavier). There are three more possibilities tomorrow, which would reduce the 8 slots by the number of additional stolen bids. These potential stolen bids tomorrow are ...

#165 Tulane (defeating #21 East Carolina)
#44 UNCW or #58 Elon (defeating #32 Northeastern)
#72 Charlotte (defeating #13 Dallas Baptist)

The 56 that I have as locks (current RPI rank included) ...
#21 East Carolina (Auto/At-large)
#124 Maine (A)
#175 George Mason (A)
#1 Wake Forest
#6 Clemson
#10 Virginia
#12 Miami
#18 Boston College
#22 North Carolina State
#23 Duke
#27 North Carolina
Atlantic Sun winner (#57 Florida Gulf Coast or #93 Lipscomb)
#14 Oklahoma State
#24 West Virginia
#30 Texas
#34 TCU
#25 Connecticut
#44 Xavier (A)
#15 Campbell (A)
#29 Iowa
#31 Indiana
#37 Maryland
#66 Cal State-Fullerton (A)
#32 Northeastern
#13 Dallas Baptist
#78 Wright State (A)
#116 Pennsylvania (A)
#99 Rider (A)
#101 Ball State (A)
#9 Indiana State (A)
Mountain West Winner (#105 San Jose State or #134 Air Force)
Northeast Winner (#117 Central Connecticut or #234 Wagner)
#114 Eastern Illinois (A)
#17 Stanford
#33 Oregon (A)
#35 Oregon State
#36 Washington
#92 Army
#2 Kentucky
#3 Arkansas
#4 Florida
#5 LSU
#7 Vanderbilt
#8 South Carolina
#11 Alabama
#19 Auburn
#20 Tennessee
#28 Texas A&M
#62 Samford (A)
#108 Nicholls (A)
#75 Oral Roberts (A)
#16 Coastal Carolina
#26 Southern Mississippi
SWAC Winner (#158 Florida A&M or #168 Bethune Cookman)
#71 Sam Houston (A)
#81 Santa Clara (A)

Meanwhile, the bubble teams that will be competing for the final 8 spots (less if there are more stolen bids) ...

22 teams listed below. I took the speculative liberty of eliminating some more ... leaving 12 teams for those final spots.
(RPI Rank and Q1 record included)
#38 Troy (4-6)
#39 Oklahoma (12-14)
#40 Texas Tech (12-13)
#41 Louisville (10-17)
#42 Georgia (11-16)
#44 UNCW (7-10)
#45 Arizona (9-15-1)
#46 Louisiana (7-9)
#47 Kent State (0-1)
#48 Virginia Tech (6-16)
#49 Arizona State (8-13-1)
#50 Cal-Irvine (3-1)
#51 Missouri (10-21)
#52 Mississippi State (11-22)
#53 UC Santa Barbara (losing to Hawaii tonight ... 6-9 T5th) (6-4)
#54 USC (8-15-1)
#55 Kansas State 12-14)
#56 Notre Dame (10-12)
#58 Elon (7-8)
#59 Wofford (3-6)
#63 Georgia Tech (10-21)
#69 Grand Canyon (2-7)

It will be close, but I like what I see (for Troy and Louisiana) ... provided we do not have more than one stolen bid on Sunday,

An update on the bubble teams ...

22 teams listed below. I took the speculative liberty of eliminating 11 ... leaving 11 teams for those final spots.
(RPI Rank and Q1 record included)
#38 Troy (4-6)
#39 Oklahoma (12-13)
#40 Texas Tech (12-13)
#41 Louisville (10-17)
#42 Georgia (11-19)
#44 UNCW (7-10)
#45 Louisiana (7-9)
#46 Arizona (8-15-1)
#47 Kent State (0-1)
#48 Virginia Tech (6-16)
#49 Arizona State (8-10-1)
#50 Missouri (10-21)
#51 Cal-Irvine (3-1)
#52 Mississippi State (11-22)
#57 UC Santa Barbara (lost to Hawaii early this morning/last night ... swept) (5-2)
#54 USC (8-13-1)
#55 Kansas State (10-13)
#56 Notre Dame (10-12)
#58 Elon (7-8)
#59 Wofford (3-6)
#63 Georgia Tech (10-21)
#69 Grand Canyon (2-7)

I eliminated UC Santa Barbara with their loss at Hawaii last night ... a sweep by Hawaii ... and fourth consecutive loss.

Also, I noticed that D1Baseball does not even have Cal-Irvine (3-1 in Q1) as one of the last four teams in. I do not agree with this. They are very much on the bubble.

Brian

[mahtoo]

Tulane 6
E Carolina 5
after 5-1/2

[angeleast]

Northeastern 2 Elon 1. Top of 4th

[angeleast]

Top of 5th. Northeastern 7 Elon 1

[RaginScotsman]

My goodness. Tulane might actually do this. Gross.

[Dad04]

Kendall Rogers says we are in, but he has no supporting analysis.

[angeleast]

My goodness. Tulane might actually do this. Gross.

Gris gris been sent to avoid that

[angeleast]

Tip of 3. Dallas Baptist 1 Charlotte 0