Analyzing the Bubble

[Lafitte the Pirate]

I understand that a person from SE Louisiana is on the selection committee. Don’t count on him for support!

[cajundiehard]

I understand that a person from SE Louisiana is on the selection committee. Don’t count on him for support!

I don't know. Maybe they have a good relationship with the administration and will do what they can to promote baseball in Louisiana with the long view that strong baseball in the state will benefit SLU in the long run???

[CajunVic]

Nobody is a douche bag . . . “this” ain’t all it is cracked up to be . . . If 40 wins is not enough over OK’s 31, what is the mark . . . 41, 42, 43 . . . Beating Southeastern . . . Would 3 additional wins over non-field of 64 opponents move the needle . . . I feel like Boomer fight now . . .

[MountainDew]

Like Brian said, I don’t quite understand the UC Irvine love. I think if the committee does favor the Cajuns over another team, it’ll be them.

[sportsfanatic21]

Rice was less than helpful at 165 RPI.

Yeah I forgot about them.

[CajunRage]

Just kind of glancing over a few articles, and it would seem, I think that slightly more projections include the Cajuns than not.

But what I am seeing that concerns me is arguments that North Carolina State, regardless of a losing conference record, should be in because of their RPI while schools like Kansas State, Arizona State, and Oklahoma, should be in regardless of their RPI. And losing records in conference play.

And from what I saw of all the “mathing“ in the hours following our conference championship, Coastal actually went up in RPI, Southern Miss and Troy stayed pat, and we dropped one spot… Simply for making and losing in the conference championship game.

(Maybe whoever it was that canceled the football conference championship a couple of years ago, and decreed Coastal conference champion should’ve canceled yesterday‘s game likewise).

And not meaning to single out CajunRage, but reading your posts is starting to help me see Turbine’s point about double dipping.

What I am gathering through your posts is that the Cajuns should be penalized twice for losing games against inferior competition… Once by calculation in the RPI, and a second time for simply losing to inferior competition.

And also looking at Brian’s post… Just go look at the RPI rankings in the 40s above and below us.

I think under no circumstances should teams who win 1/3 of their conference games should make the NCAA tournament.

And when you compare our RPI calculating factors, I think we are better than schools like Cal Irvine and Kent State.

Approaching half of the 64 available spots are going to be awarded to the SEC, the ACC, the Pac 12, and the big 12.

At the end of the day, it seems the smarks are making arguments on why not to exclude P5 teams.

The point that I’m not getting across is (and I can see where it seemed this way in a couple posts) I’m not saying the committee is penalizing us for those losses. I’m saying that when you look at our schedule, that’s 3 wins that could make a significant difference and were in our control. Once the schedule is made, you can’t control your opponents record. I’d much rather have a control your destiny mindset rather than hope for our opponents to play better or blame that when we left wins in the table.

[sportsfanatic21]

The point that I’m not getting across is (and I can see where it seemed this way in a couple posts) I’m not saying the committee is penalizing us for those losses. I’m saying that when you look at our schedule, that’s 3 wins that could make a significant difference and were in our control. Once the schedule is made, you can’t control your opponents record. I’d much rather have a control your destiny mindset rather than hope for our opponents to play better or blame that when we left wins in the table.

You are correct in your assessment. But every team loses games that they feel they should have won.

If we are cherry picking flipped results, beating Miss St in Biloxi and not losing one of the games to High Point would be at the top of my list.

Beating coastal 3 times and Texas state 5 times more than makes up for losses to JMU and App.

The non-conference strength of schedule of 123 is a big deal.

[GoneGolfin]

And from what I saw of all the “mathing“ in the hours following our conference championship, Coastal actually went up in RPI, Southern Miss and Troy stayed pat, and we dropped one spot… Simply for making and losing in the conference championship game.

It was not that CC's RPI went up ... it dropped after Saturday and stayed the same after Sunday. It was their RPI ranking that moved up a bit (due to other action affecting those teams).

The Cajuns dropped only .00135 in RPI (loss to USM) ... but they dropped a three spots because the teams were stacked on top of each other. If you look at #46 Kent State, they are at .55563 while the Cajuns are at .55560. Warren Nolan only reports RPI to four decimal places ... and thus shows both schools with the same RPI. This is how close they are. Meanwhile, #48 Viriginia Tech is at .55554. The Tulane win over ECU was enough for the Cajuns to pass Virginia Tech into the #47 slot ... and was almost enough to eclipse Kent State out of the #46 spot.

Brian

[angeleast]

Ok I’ve had my morning coffee and read through the 7 pages of this thread that I missed last night. Sheesh….anywho, I must say I still got a feeling. Not sure it’s the coffee running through or what but I got a feeling.

Maybe the residual, .08 g% bac?

[GoneGolfin]

“
What’s hurting their RPI is merely showing up for home games against High Point (3), Grambling, Southern, and Jackson State.

BYU, SLU, Tulane, and La. Tech having a terrible aggregate record this season also hurt.

The schedule is why they are sweating this morning. Some of it self inflicted (3 SWAC teams) some of it just bad luck due to opponents having bad years.

In the end, BYU and Jackson State did not hurt, despite their RPI rankings. The Cajuns' RPI went up slightly with those five wins on the schedule.

Tulane was a slight negative as was Louisiana Tech (due to a loss).

Brian