Analyzing the Bubble

[sportsfanatic21]

The point that I’m not getting across is (and I can see where it seemed this way in a couple posts) I’m not saying the committee is penalizing us for those losses. I’m saying that when you look at our schedule, that’s 3 wins that could make a significant difference and were in our control. Once the schedule is made, you can’t control your opponents record. I’d much rather have a control your destiny mindset rather than hope for our opponents to play better or blame that when we left wins in the table.

You are correct in your assessment. But every team loses games that they feel they should have won.

If we are cherry picking flipped results, beating Miss St in Biloxi and not losing one of the games to High Point would be at the top of my list.

Beating coastal 3 times and Texas state 5 times more than makes up for losses to JMU and App.

The non-conference strength of schedule of 123 is a big deal.

[GoneGolfin]

And from what I saw of all the “mathing“ in the hours following our conference championship, Coastal actually went up in RPI, Southern Miss and Troy stayed pat, and we dropped one spot… Simply for making and losing in the conference championship game.

It was not that CC's RPI went up ... it dropped after Saturday and stayed the same after Sunday. It was their RPI ranking that moved up a bit (due to other action affecting those teams).

The Cajuns dropped only .00135 in RPI (loss to USM) ... but they dropped a three spots because the teams were stacked on top of each other. If you look at #46 Kent State, they are at .55563 while the Cajuns are at .55560. Warren Nolan only reports RPI to four decimal places ... and thus shows both schools with the same RPI. This is how close they are. Meanwhile, #48 Viriginia Tech is at .55554. The Tulane win over ECU was enough for the Cajuns to pass Virginia Tech into the #47 slot ... and was almost enough to eclipse Kent State out of the #46 spot.

Brian

[angeleast]

Ok I’ve had my morning coffee and read through the 7 pages of this thread that I missed last night. Sheesh….anywho, I must say I still got a feeling. Not sure it’s the coffee running through or what but I got a feeling.

Maybe the residual, .08 g% bac?

[GoneGolfin]

“
What’s hurting their RPI is merely showing up for home games against High Point (3), Grambling, Southern, and Jackson State.

BYU, SLU, Tulane, and La. Tech having a terrible aggregate record this season also hurt.

The schedule is why they are sweating this morning. Some of it self inflicted (3 SWAC teams) some of it just bad luck due to opponents having bad years.

In the end, BYU and Jackson State did not hurt, despite their RPI rankings. The Cajuns' RPI went up slightly with those five wins on the schedule.

Tulane was a slight negative as was Louisiana Tech (due to a loss).

Brian

[sportsfanatic21]

In the end, BYU and Jackson State did not hurt, despite their RPI rankings. The Cajuns' RPI went up slightly with those five wins on the schedule.

Tulane was a slight negative as was Louisiana Tech (due to a loss).

Brian

How big of a detriment was the High Point series, in general, and more so, losing one of those games?

If that’s too much of a chore, no worries, but that was a team that went from 4th in the Big South in 2022 to 8th this year.

[CajunVic]

There are so many t-tiny increments of movements available I’m not sure how anyone pinpoints that T-tiny movement which will end up being the operative one or ones.

Prayer may be a more operative barometer at this point . . .

[CajunRage]

You are correct in your assessment. But every team loses games that they feel they should have won.

If we are cherry picking flipped results, beating Miss St in Biloxi and not losing one of the games to High Point would be at the top of my list.

Beating coastal 3 times and Texas state 5 times more than makes up for losses to JMU and App.

The non-conference strength of schedule of 123 is a big deal.

South Al high point and rice are all losses that I thought about but we won all 3 series. It’s hard to sweep in baseball that’s why you can’t assume one against anyone and it’s bad to get swept. That’s why I’m focused on those series.

And I don’t want to hurt Brian’s feelings but I hate the RPI’ing of all this. I know you have to have it but when losing to one team is better than beating another, it’s just frustrating.

[CajunVic]

South Al high point and rice are all losses that I thought about but we won all 3 series. It’s hard to sweep in baseball that’s why you can’t assume one against anyone and it’s bad to get swept. That’s why I’m focused on those series.

Brooms, dust mops, vacuum cleaners, air purifiers, they all count . . .

[GoneGolfin]

How big of a detriment was the High Point series, in general, and more so, losing one of those games?

If that’s too much of a chore, no worries, but that was a team that went from 4th in the Big South in 2022 to 8th this year.

High Point hurt, particularly because it was a home loss. A win there and the Cajuns have an RPI ranking of 42.

Brian

[Turbine]

High Point was a low point.

[CajunVic]

Only if one gets the point

[IberiaCajun]

Woohoo!
Louisiana is in!