Analyzing the Bubble

[CajunRage]

What did I edit that changed my point?

And again, baseball teams lose games. And losing games to top 100 RPI teams is nothing to be ashamed of. Of course if you just miss making a regional you can go point out a loss here or there. Every team in the country lost games that would change their position other than whomever is awarded the #1 overall seed.

The 3 games? You specifically were hung up on 0-3 against JMU. And have said (over and over) that getting swept by JMU is what will keep UL out. Now you’re changing it to any random 3 games.

I’ve told you multiple times that the schedule was the detriment. You choose to continue to focus on one series….against a top 100 RPI team.

I’ve run out of ways to try to explain it to you.

This Cajun team is good. They deserve to be in a regional. If they aren’t, getting swept by JMU won’t be the main reason. The out of conference schedule, especially in the early season, will. And what teams that you schedule do in their other games outside of when you play them is completely out of your control.

I really don’t see how it’s that hard to grasp.

I’ve had enough of it. I’m gonna watch the show tomorrow and hope to see “Louisiana” in the field. And if they’re not, so be it.

Oh man, we lost games that we could control but the games that we can’t cost us the postseason. Listen to yourself. Win 3 games and we aren’t even talking about this…..

[CajunDreDog]

Final projections summary

*College Baseball Nation has Louisiana as team 64 {last in)
*D1Baseball has Louisiana as team 65 (1st team out)
*11Point7 has Louisiana as team 65 {1st team out)

We are the bubble....

Let's see what the selection committee decides tmrw.
#GeauxCajuns

[ULvictory]

Baseball America has us a #3 seed in Baton Rouge against Oregon State.

[sportsfanatic21]

One game changes it from getting swept douchebag. You can’t get swept by an inferior team and think it gets overlooked. I don’t expect a sweep and never have. But winning a series against app and jmu is 3 games.

So I’m a douchebag because you can’t understand that “getting swept” has nothing to do with anything. Seriously, ZERO.

Everyone else participating in this discussion is telling you the same thing yet you continue to argue.

I don’t really know what else to tell you.

When they add up the wins and losses at the end of the conference season (and regular season for that matter) NOBODY looks through the schedule to see if you got swept. Your record is your record.

And if UL had won 1 of 3 at JMU, therefore NOT getting swept, it wouldn’t make near the difference as playing home games against teams that had terrible years, even if those games were wins.

It is what it is. If you want to call me more names, have at it. But it’s not going to make your stance on it any less wrong.

[cajundiehard]

Sun Belt (5th rated conference) deserves 4 teams. Let's hope it happens. Interesting to see Brian's take... but we won't really know till after noon tomorrow.

[GoneGolfin]

College Baseball Nation has Cajuns and Oklahoma in and K State and UC Irvine out.

I am not getting the love affair with UC Irvine. Both D1Baseball and BA have UC Irvine in ahead of the Cajuns. D1 has UC Irvine at #62 (three spots ahead of Louisiana). BA has them at #61 ... two spots ahead of our Cajuns (with the Cajuns at #63). What drives me crazy here is that UC Irvine is 0-1 vs. the RPI Top 50 and 0-0 vs. the RPI Top 25. That is, they did not schedule schools that are in the NCAA Tournament field. How can you possibly assess that they are worthy of an at-large bid if you do not play the Top 50?

* The record vs. the RPI Top 100 (18-12) is crap when you consider all of their games (sans one) is against teams 51->100.

RPI Ranking -> Louisiana 47, UC Irvine 49
SOS -> Louisiana 72, UC Irvine 126
Non-Conference SOS -> Louisiana 133, UC Irvine 120
Non-Conference RPI -> UC Irvine 27, Louisiana 68
Road -> UC Irvine 19-6, Louisiana 12-10 (but a significantly weaker schedule)
Conference Record -> Louisiana 22-14, UC Irvine 19-11
Conference RPI -> Sun Belt 5, Big West 10
RPI 1-25 -> Louisiana 6-8, UC Irvine 0-0
RPI 26-50 -> Louisiana 1-2, UC Irvine 0-1
RPI 51-100 -> UC Irvine 18-11, Louisiana 6-6 (but with the above *)
vs. Top 100 -> UC Irvine 18-12, Louisiana 13-16 (but with the above *)
vs. below 150 (considered bad losses) -> Louisiana 21-2, UC Irvine 15-4
Last 10 games -> UC Irvine 7-3, Louisiana 6-4

Brian

[lcitsh]

I believe that comes from a win against app at home and two on the road against jmu rather than midweek games. Do t really give a ____ where they come from but it is what it is. 3 more wins and we are a lock for postseason.

I hope you're able to watch the selection show tomorrow, or, if not, record it so you can watch it later. All indications are that the Cajuns are in the discussion for a bid, so if they aren't selected, chances are very likely that the committee chairman will be asked about them and an explanation will be given why they weren't chosen. I will be very interested to hear that records of 33-24, 31-24, 29-27, 31-26 are why those teams with those records were chosen over a 40-22 record. It'll be more likely that they were chosen because the team with a 40-22 record had a schedule strength ranked #72 and a non-conference SOS ranked #133.

[CajunVic]

We will be in
By the hair on your chiny chin chin

[zeppelincajun]

There isn’t a lot we can do about scheduling quality programs that just don’t pan out in a particular season. That’s just bad luck. One thing I would love to see us address is the SWAC schools on the schedule. 3 home games this year against the SWAC. All wins but against 260, 271, and 273 in the RPI. I remember we went away from scheduling these schools a while back. Get creative. Hit the road. Widen the net a little bit if we have to travel farther to possibly do some midweek 2 game mini series like we’ve done with UH in the past.

A conference tournament made up of only top 100 RPI teams was something to see. It would suck to see some of the benefits from this eroded by a lowering of our standards.

[CajunRage]

So I’m a douchebag because you can’t understand that “getting swept” has nothing to do with anything. Seriously, ZERO.

Everyone else participating in this discussion is telling you the same thing yet you continue to argue.

I don’t really know what else to tell you.

When they add up the wins and losses at the end of the conference season (and regular season for that matter) NOBODY looks through the schedule to see if you got swept. Your record is your record.

And if UL had won 1 of 3 at JMU, therefore NOT getting swept, it wouldn’t make near the difference as playing home games against teams that had terrible years, even if those games were wins.

It is what it is. If you want to call me more names, have at it. But it’s not going to make your stance on it any less wrong.

I apologize. Being fired up and drinking around the pool all day got to me.

I’m going to try and explain this one more time. I’m not saying the committee looks at either series and says that’s why. I’m looking at the hand we were dealt and how we played it. We had a 40+ win schedule. We played in the 5th rated conference. We made the conf tourney championship. Yet, we are still a bubble team. Where could we have made ourselves a lock? The schedule is what it is and we can’t control what other teams do against the rest of their schedule. I’m not going to say a weekday game because 1 game can go to anyone. That’s baseball. You play series because that’s a better indicator of who the better team is. App st and JMU are the two places on the schedule that we should have gotten 3 more wins. 43-19 and we are watching the selection show with our feet kicked up on the table. All I’m saying.

[Million$Mullet]

Ok I’ve had my morning coffee and read through the 7 pages of this thread that I missed last night. Sheesh….anywho, I must say I still got a feeling. Not sure it’s the coffee running through or what but I got a feeling.

[GeauxLA]

If we go 4-2 against JMU and App instead of 1-5, we also see a slight jump in our RPI, hopefully close enough to Oklahoma at 40. But instead, we are stuck at 47 and now giving a committee enough reason to justify OU over UL. That’s the significance of why you can’t go 1-5 against those teams.