That is the likely scenario, even winning the tournament. They would need a significant amount of help to get there (outside of winning the tournament in undefeated fashion) ... including Coastal Carolina making it to Sunday. Many teams in front of them would need to lose as well. A #3 seed is not out of the question if they lose the next two games. Put another way ... they are closer to a #3 seed than a #1 seed at present.
Brian