SB 2023: Regional Hosting or Not? NOT!

[GoneGolfin]

Auburn as a #14 seed is stunning. I think the projections are overlooking Utah.

Brian

[BBSBCAJUN]

Myself, don't even think that Auburn will host. Texas at 15 is also too high, I believe they are in the 12 area.

[RaginScotsman]

Myself, don't even think that Auburn will host. Texas at 15 is also too high, I believe they are in the 12 area.

22 RPI. But hey, it’s the sec. It just means more.

[GoneGolfin]

A metrics based breakdown of the teams that I believe are competing for the final three national seeds ...

Louisiana
RPI Ranking: 11
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 12
SOS Ranking: 13
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 3
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 1-5
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-9
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 13-2
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 13-1
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 28-12
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 4-0
Conference RPI Ranking: 6
Conference Regular Season Finish: 1st
Conference Tournament Finish: 1st
Road Record: 16-6
Last 10 Games: 10-0
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 0-1 vs. Baylor
Key Wins: 1-1 vs. LSU, 1-1 vs. Florida

Utah
RPI Ranking: 18
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 35
SOS Ranking: 21
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 112
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 5-6
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 9-9
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 3-2
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 11-2
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 23-13
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 11-0
Conference RPI Ranking: 2
Conference Regular Season Finish: 3rd
Conference Tournament Finish: 1st
Road Record: 14-7
Last 10 Games: 7-3
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 0-1 vs. Central Arkansas
Key Wins: 3-0 vs. Stanford, 2-2 vs. Washington, 1-3 vs. UCLA

Clemson
RPI Ranking: 15
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 10
SOS Ranking: 66
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 114
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 4-7
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 5-1
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 16-0
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 25-8
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 14-1
Conference RPI Ranking: 4
Conference Regular Season Finish: 3rd
Conference Tournament Finish: T3rd
Road Record: 14-4
Last 10 Games: 6-4
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 1-0 vs. Georgia
Keys Wins: 2-0 vs. Northwestern, 1-0 vs. Georgia,

Georgia
RPI Ranking: 17
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 25
SOS Ranking: 29
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 91
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 6-9
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 12-3
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 3-0
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 21-12
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 12-0
Conference RPI Ranking: 3
Conference Regular Season Finish: 2nd
Conference Tournament Finish: T7th
Road Record: 9-6
Last 10 Games: 7-3
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 0-1 vs. Clemson
Key Wins: 2-1 vs. Arkansas, 1-2 vs. Florida, 1-2 vs. LSU

Baylor
RPI Ranking: 19
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 16
SOS Ranking: 39
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 115
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 6-6
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 9-7
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 6-3
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 6-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 21-16
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 12-0
Conference RPI Ranking: 1
Conference Regular Season Finish: 4th
Conference Tournament Finish: T5th
Road Record: 11-7
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 1-0 vs. Louisiana
Key Wins: 1-1 vs. Oklahoma, 3-0 vs. Texas, 2-0 vs. Tennessee, 1-0 vs. Louisiana

Central Arkansas
RPI Ranking: 16
Non-Conference RPI Ranking: 20
SOS Ranking: 43
Non-Conference SOS Ranking: 16
Record vs. RPI Top 10: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 3-3
Record vs. RPI 26 -> 50: 5-2
Record vs. RPI 51 -> 100: 15-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 23-9
Record vs. below RPI Top 150 (bad losses): 9-1
Conference RPI Ranking: 8
Conference Regular Season Finish: 1st
Conference Tournament Finish: 1st
Road Record: 15-4
Last 10 Games: 9-1
Head-to-head in candidate pool: 1-0 vs. Utah
Key Wins: 2-0 vs. Arkansas, 1-0 vs. Utah

Brian

[JMV JustMyView]

1. Oklahoma
2. UCLA
3. Florida State
4. Tennessee
5. Stanford
6. Northwestern
7. Duke
8. Oklahoma State
9. LSU
10. Alabama
11. Washington
12. Texas
13. Arkansas
14. Georgia
15. Louisiana
16. Utah

Next: Clemson, Auburn, Baylor, Florida

Another projections of host sites.

[CajunVic]

There is a very good case for our metrics being in the top 3 of these. There is no doubt that we are top notch in facilities, attendance and a place people want to visit. It’s our turn. I think we in.

[roarman]

A team with a final RPI of #11 has never not hosted. I think the Cajuns will host at #15 and Baylor, Miss State and Eastern Illinois come here. Baylor has been inconsistent. They swept Texas, then lost to Iowa State 8-1. I was in Waco when they played the Cajuns. Baylor won 2-1. It's a game the Cajuns could have won.

[GoneGolfin]

A team with a final RPI of #11 has never not hosted. I think the Cajuns will host at #15 and Baylor, Miss State and Eastern Illinois come here. Baylor has been inconsistent. They swept Texas, then lost to Iowa State 8-1. I was in Waco when they played the Cajuns. Baylor won 2-1. It's a game the Cajuns could have won.

This is not true. I pointed out a couple of weeks ago ... and mentioned again this morning ... that Minnesota did not host in 2017 with an RPI ranking of 11. The reason that the committee cited? They only had two wins against the national seed peer group (RPI Top 25), going 2-2. Minnesota was sent to #16 seed Alabama, despite going 54-3 on the season (Alabama won the regional). SOS was also mentioned (not a problem for the Cajuns). They had no bad losses.

Brian

[DieHard 1280]

This is not true. I pointed out a couple of weeks ago ... and mentioned again this morning ... Minnesota was sent to #16 seed Alabama, despite going 54-3 on the season. They had no bad losses.

Brian

Ouch. So they not only didn’t host, but they were sent to #16 host site, which paired them with the #1 overall seed. What a reward for going 54-3! How did they do in the regional?

[roarman]

This is not true. I pointed out a couple of weeks ago ... and mentioned again this morning ... that Minnesota did not host in 2017 with an RPI ranking of 11. The reason that the committee cited? They only had two wins against the national seed peer group (RPI Top 25), going 2-2. Minnesota was sent to #16 seed Alabama, despite going 54-3 on the season (Alabama won the regional). SOS was also mentioned (not a problem for the Cajuns). They had no bad losses.

Brian

Well Brian, you're the expert. I heard Eric Lopez, who got every seed and where every team was going last year, correct. He mentioned in a podcast yesterday, what I repeated about the #11 seed never not hosting. So, obviously he got it wrong. Maybe you should start a podcast. You're a genius when it comes to crunching those numbers.

[GoneGolfin]

Ouch. So they not only didn’t host, but they were sent to #16 host site, which paired them with the #1 overall seed. What a reward for going 54-3! How did they do in the regional?

Minnesota finished second in the 2017 Tuscaloosa regional, going 2-2. They lost two 1-0 games to #16 seed Alabama. Alabama then went on to Gainesville where they knocked off #1 seed Florida in the opener, but lost the last two games of the Super Regional. #10 Oklahoma knocked off #1 Florida in the national championship series (going 2-0). The Sooners went undefeated at the CWS that year.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Well Brian, you're the expert. I heard Eric Lopez, who got every seed and where every team was going last year, correct. He mentioned in a podcast yesterday, what I repeated about the #11 seed never not hosting. So, obviously he got it wrong. Maybe you should start a podcast. You're a genius when it comes to crunching those numbers.

Yes, he must have selected some bad information. The selection time RPI rankings (through games of Sunday 5/14/2017) had Minnesota at #11. The regionals started on Saturday 5/18/2017. He might have been looking at the report with games through 5/7/2017 (prior week), which had Minnesota at #12. This RPI ranking report is available on the NCAA RPI Archive website ... but the Selection time RPI report (through games of 5/14/2017) is not. I archive these reports, as such I have the selection time PDF.

There was much made of Minnesota not getting chosen as a national seed and host ... and getting sent to #16 Alabama. The Minnesota coach was quite upset. But in the end, they scheduled poorly (if a national seed was an expected possibility).

Brian