Games of Interest 5/11/23

[RaginDave]

ULM is MUCH better for us than playing Georgia State.

ULM is 25-31, GaSt is 18-36; In SOS ULM is 77, GaSt is 101; in Opponents SOS ULM is 80, GaSt is 152.

Our RPI is probably helped more by beating Troy, but the optics for the committee are better by beating Texas State, and the RPI bump is very close, so I think TxSt is better for us.

I completely agree with you, what I meant by that is that beating ULM and beating GSU is not going to matter at the end of the day whether we get to host a regional or not, but for optics and everything else, ULM is much better than GSU.

[GoneGolfin]

No problem, Rick.

Keep an eye on the Big 10 Tournament; anything that happens there that hurts Northwestern or helps Indiana is good for us.

In the Southland we want McNeese to beat Southeastern in the finals. That is best possible outcome for us.

In the SEC, I can't really figure out what is best for us, outside of Ole Miss winning it. I think we want Florida to win more and Tennessee to lose sooner, but have no clue about the rest.

In the ACC, we want Duke and Clemson to lose as soon as possible, and FSU to keep winning.

The Big 12 is totally confusing. The more Texas, Baylor and OSU win, the more it helps our RPI, but Texas and Baylor are both behind us in RPI, and we don't want them to pass us.

In general we want everyone with RPI of 10-31 to lose until Indiana [32] and Ole Miss [34] sneak into the top 25.

So, a few things …

Obviously this changes as we get closer to the completion of conference tournament play, but the #6 RPI ranking is easily in play for the Cajuns (improved significantly since I mentioned it last). But so is #13 … especially with a loss today. The Cajuns also have a minuscule lead over #10 Texas and #11 Tennessee. #14 Arkansas is distant.

Baylor is a tough one. But I suspect the Cajuns are better off if Baylor moves into the RPI Top 16 and displaces someone else (Ex. Clemson), since I think the Cajuns have a much better chance of evaluating ahead of some of the other teams (Clemson) than Baylor.

We definitely want Florida to finish well. We cannot have them falling out of the RPI Top 25 (most important thing) … and we want the RPI boost. Florida is not safe in this regard.

Brian

[VObserver]

The mathematics of softball evaluation gets pretty exciting at this time of year. lol

[VObserver]

I completely agree with you, what I meant by that is that beating ULM and beating GSU is not going to matter at the end of the day whether we get to host a regional or not, but for optics and everything else, ULM is much better than GSU.

There is quite a bit of difference in RPI effect between playing ULM and playing GaSt. ULM has a significantly better record and played a significantly tougher schedule. If you see Brian's post, our RPI margins are razor thin to get up to 6 or down as far as to 13 from 9, the llittle bit of difference between playing ULM and playing GaSt could make a difference.

[GeauxCajuns]

if we are able to crawl up to 6, i know RPI isnt everything, but no way we dont host, correct?

[VObserver]

if we are able to crawl up to 6, i know RPI isnt everything, but no way we dont host, correct?

IMO, the only way we don't host is if we lose today. Even then, there's a chance, though not a very big one. Getting up to 6 and having several other things fall our way [most of which are not likely to happen] might actually put us in position to be a 7 or 8 seed, meaning we not only host a regional, but if we win the Regional we would host a Super.

[GoneGolfin]

IMO, the only way we don't host is if we lose today. Even then, there's a chance, though not a very big one. Getting up to 6 and having several other things fall our way [most of which are not likely to happen] might actually put us in position to be a 7 or 8 seed, meaning we not only host a regional, but if we win the Regional we would host a Super.

We are not a Top 8 national seed under these conditions (RPI ranking of 6). The resume is significantly deficient under that lens. Nor should we … did not earn it.

Brian

[RaginScotsman]

Keep moving up and avoid the 16. Getting greedy, I know.

We basically beat ucla once. At least had them on the ropes for 6 and a bit. There’s hope there if we were 15. Would it be tough. Totally. But not as tough as being paired with OU should we host and win the regional.

[VObserver]

We are not a Top 8 national seed under these conditions (RPI ranking of 6). The resume is significantly deficient under that lens. Nor should we … did not earn it.

Brian

I know, but I am a fan[atic]... I can't help being overly optimistic.

[GoneGolfin]

I know, but I am a fan[atic]... I can't help being overly optimistic.

:-)

Brian