The issue isn't the ERA as much as timing of the unfortunate events.
Against App State, we give up 3 runs but walk 2 batters home to lose 3-2. Against JMU, we give up a walk off HR with the lead in the 9th. Against Coastal, we give up 3 runs but give up a game tying home run with 2 outs in the 9th. Against Southeastern, we only give up 5 runs but hit 6 batters and give away 3 unearned runs. We lose by 1 run.
Like a timely hit, we seem to give up a timely pitch or a gift.
The performance against "good" teams is just not there. There are times, like JMU, when we pee the bed start to finish. Both reasons why success in Montgomery will be surprising for many. Nobody will take us lightly there, but I doubt better teams are skeered either. The good teams Troy, USM, Coastal, TX State will be playing for better seeds in the tourney
It's the point that people look at our stats and ignore the fact that we've played 2/3 of our games against quad 3&4 teams. We've scored 10+ in 22 (of 33 or 67%) of our Q3&4 games and only twice (of 17 or 12%) against Q1&2. Our offensive stats are padded with an extremely weak schedule.
"we beat up on bad pitching and often get handled by above average to elite pitching."
Most good teams beat up on bad pitching and find ways to manufacture runs against above average to elite pitching.
I decided to look at USM next since they are just behind us in team ERA on the Sun Belt stats page.
Their team ERA in quad 1 and 2 games (30 total games) goes up to 5.61, not as significant as a jump as the Cajuns jump. And I believe that the USM number is skewed due to the CCU series. Take out that series, which accounts for 25% of the earned runs given up in the 30 quad 1 and 2 games, and their team ERA in quad 1 and 2 games is 4.72, which is actually better than their current team ERA.
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