Roarman's Softball Podcast Conference Tournament Preview

[roarman]

In this podcast, my guest, Terrell Hebert and I preview the Sunbelt Conference Tournament. It's going to be a great four day event. Check it out.

Listen to the most recent episode of my podcast: Sunbelt Conference Tournament Preview https://anchor.fm/roarman/episodes/S...review-e23nmak

[RaginDave]

In this podcast, my guest, Terrell Hebert and I preview the Sunbelt Conference Tournament. It's going to be a great four day event. Check it out.

Listen to the most recent episode of my podcast: Sunbelt Conference Tournament Preview https://anchor.fm/roarman/episodes/S...review-e23nmak

Ironically I think this is one of the best SBC softball conferences ever, but that being said, also think that the Cajuns are better than every team in the Belt by a large margin. I think the difference this year vs previous years is the amount of teams that I put in that 2nd/3rd tier. Traditionally the SBC will have 2 of 3 teams between 35-100 RPI, this year they have a total of 6 teams in that category, with 2 of those in the top 40 (excluding UL).

39 Texas State
40 USA
58 Troy
60 Marshall
75 Coastal
82 JMU

Also with the exception of Georgia State (194) and Georgia Southern (154, missed the tournament), the SBC does not have any teams above 150. In fact, even USM (108) and ULM (119) are respectable. App State (137 missed the tournament as well).

Here is what I would like to see, I would like to see ULM defeat Georgia State, with ULM being so close to the top 100, it is allot better to beat a team ranked 108 vs 194, I know it is very little difference RPI wise, but for perspective purposes, it make more sense, plus we have seen and dominated ULM, and GSU would be more of an unknown since we have not played them. We know what to expect from ULM.

I would then like to see Texas State defeat Troy, that would give us another matchup vs a Top 50 team, plus if Texas State defeats Troy that is another big win for Texas State and probably secures them a spot in the NCAA's. After we defeat ULM and Texas State, I would like to see us matchup with USA for the championship game, again another win vs a Top 50 team and one that would have defeated probably JMU (82) and either Marshall (60), two good RPI wins, on the way to the Championship game.

[RaginScotsman]

It’s nice that a lose wouldn’t drop us too far in RPI. Win and get the host is a certainty, but you guys sound pretty confident we’re hosting regardless

[roarman]

Ironically I think this is one of the best SBC softball conferences ever, but that being said, also think that the Cajuns are better than every team in the Belt by a large margin. I think the difference this year vs previous years is the amount of teams that I put in that 2nd/3rd tier. Traditionally the SBC will have 2 of 3 teams between 35-100 RPI, this year they have a total of 6 teams in that category, with 2 of those in the top 40 (excluding UL).

39 Texas State
40 USA
58 Troy
60 Marshall
75 Coastal
82 JMU

Also with the exception of Georgia State (194) and Georgia Southern (154, missed the tournament), the SBC does not have any teams above 150. In fact, even USM (108) and ULM (119) are respectable. App State (137 missed the tournament as well).

Here is what I would like to see, I would like to see ULM defeat Georgia State, with ULM being so close to the top 100, it is allot better to beat a team ranked 108 vs 194, I know it is very little difference RPI wise, but for perspective purposes, it make more sense, plus we have seen and dominated ULM, and GSU would be more of an unknown since we have not played them. We know what to expect from ULM.

I would then like to see Texas State defeat Troy, that would give us another matchup vs a Top 50 team, plus if Texas State defeats Troy that is another big win for Texas State and probably secures them a spot in the NCAA's. After we defeat ULM and Texas State, I would like to see us matchup with USA for the championship game, again another win vs a Top 50 team and one that would have defeated probably JMU (82) and either Marshall (60), two good RPI wins, on the way to the Championship game.

Nice detailed analysis. Thanks!

[roarman]

It’s nice that a lose wouldn’t drop us too far in RPI. Win and get the host is a certainty, but you guys sound pretty confident we’re hosting regardless

I think what Terrell said was this, no matter what happens the Cajuns will not drop below a 16 rpi. If they lose, will the committee give them a top 16 seed? Both he and I are thinking they will, but there is no guarantee.

[CajunVic]

Softball will be the third sport at Louisiana to win the EOY conference tournament this year.

[RaginScotsman]

I think what Terrell said was this, no matter what happens the Cajuns will not drop below a 16 rpi. If they lose, will the committee give them a top 16 seed? Both he and I are thinking they will, but there is no guarantee.

Thanks for clarifying. Let's just not lose

[GoneGolfin]

Thanks for clarifying. Let's just not lose

Watch Clemson and hope for an early tournament exit. As well as Baylor.

Brian

[lcitsh]

I think what Terrell said was this, no matter what happens the Cajuns will not drop below a 16 rpi. If they lose, will the committee give them a top 16 seed? Both he and I are thinking they will, but there is no guarantee.

Brian Benton (GoneGolfin) is more of the mathematician than I am, but the numbers I put to our score indicate to me that, even under the worst of possibilities, the Cajuns are not likely to drop any lower than #12. To me, it's not a matter of us dropping down to somebody else's level, but who will gain the committee's attention enough to jump 2 or 3 top 16 rpi teams. I don't think the Cajuns will be one of them.

[GoneGolfin]

Brian Benton (GoneGolfin) is more of the mathematician than I am, but the numbers I put to our score indicate to me that, even under the worst of possibilities, the Cajuns are not likely to drop any lower than #12. To me, it's not a matter of us dropping down to somebody else's level, but who will gain the committee's attention enough to jump 2 or 3 top 16 rpi teams. I don't think the Cajuns will be one of them.

Agreed, the Cajuns have a decent cushion between them and #12 Washington and #13 Alabama/#14 Arkansas. As such, it would take a reasonable move to fall below 11. But that *could* happen with a loss and those teams performing well this week. But the odds are in the Cajuns’ favor.

My focus is on which teams could potentially evaluate higher than the Cajuns that are not in the RPI Top 16. I think Baylor is higher at the moment. If that is the case, then the Cajuns will need to evaluate higher than some other team in the Top 16. I think Clemson is the best bet, but I am concerned. Which is why I would like to see the Cajuns push their RPI into the top 8 and create more RPI ranking separation. I think the Cajuns at #11, for example, are vulnerable … much in the same way that Minnesota was in 2017. At 7 or 8 … and everything in the Cajuns’ favor sans the dismal record vs. RPI Top 25 … I think the committee would receive some undesirable blowback if not selected as a national seed. The Cajuns are also tied for the most road wins among the national seed candidates … and have played more road games than any of the candidates.

Brian

[lcitsh]

Baylor is the #4 seed in the Big 12, playing #5 Iowa State who beat them 2 of 3 in Ames two weeks ago. Clemson is the #3 seed, playing #6 North Carolina in the ACC.