Eric Lopez Regional SB Predictions.

[CajunRebel]

Apologies for sounding like a know it all jack***, but after all these years have y’all learned nothing???

The NCAA uses the RPI to rank teams. Our RPI is #10. If it stays at #10, we’re 100% hosting. Even if it drops to #16, we’re still ~80% to host.

[JMV JustMyView]

Apologies for sounding like a know it all jack***, but after all these years have y’all learned nothing???

The NCAA uses the RPI to rank teams. Our RPI is #10. If it stays at #10, we’re 100% hosting. Even if it drops to #16, we’re still ~80% to host.

That is not even close to how it goes down. You may want to visit the other thread and listen to the committee chair break it all down for you.

[JMV JustMyView]

We could barely hit Baylor. Why would we be able to hit Oklahoma?

Coastal won a CWS, why not believe that UL could beat Oklahoma?

[DieHard 1280]

Coastal won a CWS, why not believe that UL could beat Oklahoma?

Cajuns baseball beat USC to go to the CWS back in 2000. Maybe it’s softball’s turn?

Has it REALLY been 23 years? Sheesh

[JMV JustMyView]

Cajuns baseball beat USC to go to the CWS back in 2000. Maybe it’s softball’s turn?

Has it REALLY been 23 years? Sheesh

I am VERY familiar with the 2000 UL team.

[Big Buds]

We've played the "favorable road path" game for what, 7 years? No thanks. It has not worked out. Not with Glasco's teams. Their mountain to climb has just been to get to a Super. They've been right there, but just out of reach so many times.

Host. Even as a 16. Gives you the best opportunity to move on. Then let the chips fall where they may after that. Just got to get past damn championship Sunday in the first round.

Took the words out of my mouth.

[VObserver]

First, let me emphasize that I want whatever gives us the best chance to advance, whether we host or not.

That being said, as of yesterdays games, our RPI is 10, our SOS is 4, our non-conference RPI is 13 and our non-conference SOS is 3. Barring a total collapse, our numbers at season's end won't be much different.

In order for us not to host, the committee will have to justify 7 schools to pass us up on the pecking order.

The only team behind us with SOS even close to us is Alabama [RPI 12, SOS 1, Non Conference RPI 8 and Non Conference SOS 11]
The only team behind us that is in the conversation that we have played is Arkansas, to whom we lost by 1, but their numbers are not quite as good as ours. [RPI 14, SOS 18, NC RPI 17, NC SOS 50]. Washington is about the best of the rest [RPI 13, SOS 22, NC RPI 9, NCSOS 37]

The rest who are in contention to host have relatively bad NCSOS.
Oregon NCSOS 85 SOS 31
Georgia NCSOS 86 SOS 27
Clemson NCSOS 114 SOS 74
Tennessee NCSOS 124 SOS 29

The committee will have to violate at least the spirit of its mission to even consider schools with NCSOS of 50 or more as hosts. Of course they have done that many times before.

If I were on the committee, I would put Alabama at 10, Arkansas at 11, Louisiana at 12 and Washington at 13. The remaining 4 could fight it out with Auburn, Wichita State and Central Arkansas for the last 3 host sites.

Do I think the Committee will do that? No, but I also don't think they will drop us 7 or more spots.

In case you don't think that the polls are just name recognition popularity contests, USA today has Tennessee at 4th and Georgia at 10th. D1 Softball has Tennessee 4 and Georgia 6. Coaches Poll has Tennessee 4, Washington 9, Clemson 10, Georgia 11, Arkansas 12, Oregon 13 and Alabama 14. Softball America has Tennessee 4, Georgia 5, Washington 9, Clemson 11, Arkansas 12, Oregon 13, Alabama 15.

[VObserver]

There are 9 schools who have both RPI and SOS in the top 16.

Ranking in RPI Order they are:

Oklahoma
UCLA
Stanford
Florida State
Northwestern
LSU
Louisiana
Alabama
Arkansas

These should be Seeds 1-9 in the NCAA

[VObserver]

There are 9 schools who have both RPI and SOS in the top 16.

Ranking in RPI Order they are:

Oklahoma
UCLA
Stanford
Florida State
Northwestern
LSU
Louisiana
Alabama
Arkansas

These should be Seeds 1-9 in the NCAA

A couple of other Louisiana stats from the Rankings Report, as of games of 5/3:

7th in Road Success
8th in Road RPI
14th [3 way tie] in RPI Bonus
1st [tied with many] in RPI Penalties
1st in Schedule [8 way tie]
36th in Opponents SOS [the only relatively bad number for Louisiana]

[LouisianaB]

There are 9 schools who have both RPI and SOS in the top 16.

Ranking in RPI Order they are:

Oklahoma
UCLA
Stanford
Florida State
Northwestern
LSU
Louisiana
Alabama
Arkansas

These should be Seeds 1-9 in the NCAA

Isn’t using RPI and SOS redundant? One is part of the other.

[VObserver]

Isn’t using RPI and SOS redundant? One is part of the other.

Yes, to a degree. SOS includes an additional layer [Opponents' Opponents' Opponents' Record]. SOS is one of the devices that the Committee uses to give more advantages [like they need more] to P5 programs. The only non P5 schools in the top 25 of SOS are UL [4] and Liberty [24]. Only those 2 plus Charlotte [30], TxSt [34], UCA [38], Florida Gulf Coast [40] and UCF [42] are in the top 50.

Interestingly, 3 of the 7 are in the ASUN, 2 are SBC, 1 each in CUSA and AAC.

[GoneGolfin]

Isn’t using RPI and SOS redundant? One is part of the other.

Correct. For formula purposes (calculating it), it is 75% of the RPI. But effectively it (SOS) is just a tad less than 75% because your own winning percentage (WP) contributes a small amount to your SOS as it impacts your own OOWP through your opponents’ OWP. That is, your WP contribution to your RPI is a tad above 25%.

Brian