Softball week 7 rpi - April 16

[VObserver]

SBC RPI update as of games of April 17, 2023

10 Louisiana Sun Belt 33-12 10-5 8-5 15-2 0-0
46 Texas St. Sun Belt 26-18 6-5 4-3 16-10 0-0
54 South Alabama Sun Belt 29-13 5-5 6-5 18-3 0-0
55 Marshall Sun Belt 36-5 8-4 9-1 19-0 0-0
59 Troy Sun Belt 29-13 12-6 7-1 10-6 0-0
63 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 30-14 4-5 2-1 24-8 0-0
88 James Madison Sun Belt 23-13 7-5 5-4 11-4 0-0
103 Southern Miss. Sun Belt 19-17 5-8 0-0 14-9 0-0
106 ULM Sun Belt 21-24 9-7 2-3 10-14 0-0
119 App State Sun Belt 20-21 8-12 10-2 2-7 0-0
136 Ga. Southern Sun Belt 16-22 2-13 3-2 11-7 0-0
161 Georgia St. Sun Belt 16-27 1-9 1-3 14-15 0-0

[CajunEXPRESS]

If enough quality non Preferred 5 conference members schedule like UL and Texas State did this year part of that bias will go away. Now, scheduling like that puts you in danger of being like UCF, Liberty and Texas State are this year: RPI much better than record, which creates another problem.

Our record vs top 25 is pretty weak. Definitely a two edged sword. You still need to win more games than we have.

[ragin50]

SBC RPI update as of games of April 17, 2023

10 Louisiana Sun Belt 33-12 10-5 8-5 15-2 0-0
46 Texas St. Sun Belt 26-18 6-5 4-3 16-10 0-0
54 South Alabama Sun Belt 29-13 5-5 6-5 18-3 0-0
55 Marshall Sun Belt 36-5 8-4 9-1 19-0 0-0
59 Troy Sun Belt 29-13 12-6 7-1 10-6 0-0
63 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 30-14 4-5 2-1 24-8 0-0
88 James Madison Sun Belt 23-13 7-5 5-4 11-4 0-0
103 Southern Miss. Sun Belt 19-17 5-8 0-0 14-9 0-0
106 ULM Sun Belt 21-24 9-7 2-3 10-14 0-0
119 App State Sun Belt 20-21 8-12 10-2 2-7 0-0
136 Ga. Southern Sun Belt 16-22 2-13 3-2 11-7 0-0
161 Georgia St. Sun Belt 16-27 1-9 1-3 14-15 0-0

It's still hard to figure that our only conference loss is to App State, who is 1-12 in conference play.

[Cajunsmike]

In the diamond sports more than any other, anyone
Can beat anyone on a given day

[RaginScotsman]

McNeese took down the East (rough day for those guys in diamond sports. Ouchy.) Does that help, hurt or is it a wash?

We went-
3-0 vs McNeese

1-1 vs East Basin.

I think those two split also.

[lcitsh]

McNeese took down the East (rough day for those guys in diamond sports. Ouchy.) Does that help, hurt or is it a wash?

We went-
3-0 vs McNeese

1-1 vs East Basin.

I think those two split also.

It will only help us if McNeese can make it into the top 50 rpi and stay there. They started the day at 61, this will give them a tremendous boost.

[RaginScotsman]

It will only help us if McNeese can make it into the top 50 rpi and stay there. They started the day at 61, this will give them a tremendous boost.

Thank you, sir.

[lcitsh]

Thank you, sir.

Glad to be of service.

McNeese jumped to 52 today. With Southeastern Louisiana as their strongest remaining opponent and the conference tournament at their place, I would think they have a pretty good chance of reaching the goal.

[GoneGolfin]

While this is true, I don't remember any top 10 seed not being a # 1; though it is possible to be a # 1 without hosting.

I do not have the data prior to 2007 handy, but I recall the same. The best RPI ranking to be left out of the national seed selections (and host sites) was ...

#11 Minnesota in 2017 (2-2 vs. RPI T25 ... 12-1 vs. RPI 26->50 ... 114 SOS)
#12 Missouri in 2009 (3-3 vs. RPI T25 ... 12-4 vs. RPI 26 -> 50 ... 44 SOS)
#13 James Madison in 2019 (4-4 vs. RPI T25 ... 1-1 vs. RPI 26-> 50 ... 41 SOS)
#13 James Madison in 2017 (1-1 vs. RPI T25 ... 7-1 vs. RPI 26->50 ... 66 SOS)
#13 Baylor in 2016 (3-7 vs. RPI T25 ... 17-3 vs. 26->50) ... 26 SOS)
#13 Hofstra in 2015 (3-8 vs. RPI T25 ... 2-1-1 vs. 26 -> 50 ... 11 SOS)

Now, I would say that the odds are still slim, given past selection criteria emphasis and the selection committee needing to see wins against your peer group (in this case, the teams being considered for national seeds). But I would not say impossible ... if they have a Top 10 RPI ranking at selection time. Circumstances vary from year to year and the question you would need to ask is ... If the Cajuns at a #10 or #9 RPI ranking (and #3 SOS and #2 NC SOS) are passed over as a national seed ... who would be taking their place and how do they stack up resume-wise?

Would it be Florida at #17 (6-7 vs. RPI T25 ... #14 SOS)? The Cajuns and Florida split at Florida.

Baylor at #18 (5-5 vs. RPI T25 ... #65 SOS)? Is a one-run win at home over the Cajuns enough to assess higher over the Cajuns? Maybe.

Oregon at #19 (5-7 vs. RPI T25 ... 5-3 vs. RPI 26->50 ... #26 SOS)?

I do not see #20 Central Arkansas, #21 Wichita State, #22 Virginia Tech, or #23 Auburn as having a better resume than the Cajuns.

And even if one of the above are evaluated as a better national seed candidate than the Cajuns, what about some of the teams in the RPI Top 16 behind the Cajuns? #14 Clemson is 3-4 vs. the RPI T25 and possess a SOS of #84.

The specific circumstances matter.

Meanwhile, keep pulling for Ole Miss. At #28, they are not far away from adding a third win to the Cajuns' RPI Top 25 record. They have a big series vs. #Texas A&M (24 RPI) at home this weekend ... and close with Florida and Alabama (some winnable games).

[Looney Lou]

GoneGolfin; I value your input especially at this time of year. I remember your precise and easy to understand explanation of RPI and the process of getting a national seed on Ultimate College Softball. You made it so easy to understand. When you say the Cajuns have a chance, I say we better believe you. Thank you! Please keep presenting your opinions.

[JMV JustMyView]

GoneGolfin; I value your input especially at this time of year. I remember your precise and easy to understand explanation of RPI and the process of getting a national seed on Ultimate College Softball. You made it so easy to understand. When you say the Cajuns have a chance, I say we better believe you. Thank you! Please keep presenting your opinions.

I am not to sure that I would want to be a #16 seed and host.

[MelRock]

2022
Eleven of sixteen higher seed teams advanced, 68.8%. Seeds 2, 6, 11, 13, and 15 did not advance.

• Mississippi State defeated 2 Florida.
• Stanford defeated 6 Alabama.
• Oregon State defeated 11 Tennessee.
• Texas defeated 13 Washington.
• Arizona defeated 15 Missouri.

Arizona, Texas, Oregon State, and Texas all advanced to the WCWS

2021
Fourteen of sixteen higher seed advance, 87.5%. Seeds 9 and 13 did not advance.

• JMU defeated 9 Tennessee.
• Georgia defeated 13 Duke, but they played in Athens, GA.

Both Georgia and JUM advanced to the WCWS.

2020
No tournament because of Covid.

2019
Fifteen of sixteen higher seed teams advanced, 93.8%.

• JMU defeated 15 Michigan.

2018
All sixteen seeds advanced to round two, 100%. In addition, all eight top seeds advanced to the WCWS.

2017
All sixteen seeds advanced to round two, 100%. Seeds 9, 10, 13, and 15 advanced to WCWS.

2016
Fourteen of sixteen higher seed advance, 87.5%. Seeds 9 and 13 did not advance.

• Utah defeated 9 Kentucky.
• Arizona defeated 13 Tennessee.

2015
Fourteen of sixteen higher seed advance, 87.5%. Seeds 15 and 16 did not advance.

• Kentucky defeated 16 Notre Dame.
• NC State defeated 15 James Madison.

All higher seeds advanced to the WCWS.

2014
Fourteen of sixteen higher seed advance, 87.5%. Seeds 9 and 15 did not advance.

• Michigan defeated 9 Arizona.
• Nebraska defeated 15 Missouri.

Kentucky 14 and Baylor 13 advanced to the WCWS.

2013
Fourteen of sixteen higher seed advance, 87.5%. Seeds 9 and 15 did not advance.

• Louisiana defeated 9 LSU.
• UAB defeated 15 Louisville.

Washington 11 and Nebraska 14 advanced to the WCWS.

2012
Twelve of sixteen higher seed advance, 75.0%. Seeds 5, 8, 12, and 15 did not advance.

• LSU defeated 8 Texas A&M.
• South Florida defeated 5 Florida.
• San Diego State defeated 12 UCLA.
• Michigan defeated 15 Louisville.

Oregon 11, South Florida, and LSU advanced to the WCWS.

The number of higher seeds advanced by the year.
2012 - 12
2013 - 14
2014 - 14
2015 - 14
2016 - 14
2017 - 16
2018 - 16
2019 - 15
2020 - No games played, Covid.
2021 - 14 - Georgia was a lower seed but advanced while playing at home.
2022 - 11

Higher seeds won 87.5%, or the home team won 88.1% of the time. Honestly, I did not think the numbers would be so lopsided. Twice in the last five years, all national seeds won and advanced.