Ragin' Dave's FSU Breakdown
Guys,
Because of some things going at home, I will be unable to do a weekly podcast with MelRock this week. The last few weeks have been tough and I have not been able to be as diligent in doing these as I had been in the past. I hope you guys don't think that I haven't been doing them because we aren't winning as much, that is not the case at all. It is just we have allot going on personally. But the good news is that part of the reason I can not do one this week is that we are leaving as a family to head to Panama City, Florida to watch the local homeschool High School football team (Acadiana Christian Defenders) play in the National Home School football Championships. We won it all last year and hopefully can repeat as National Champions in Division 4. My daughter is a cheerleader for the Homeschool football team. That all being said, allow me to get to this weeks game and it is going to be a doozy.
Florida State Seminoles Preview
Streaky, is the best I can describe Florida State Football this year, they started the season 4-0 with wins over Duquesne, LSU, Louisville, and Boston College. The then proceeded to lose 3 in a row to Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson. Since then they have been on a 3 game winning streak over Georgia Tech, Miami, and Syracuse all in impressive fashion. FSU is led by Head Coach Mike Norvell who had some really good seasons at Memphis before taking the FSU job.
This will be an uphill battle for the Cajuns, FSU is 5-0 vs SBC teams since 2001, the Cajuns open as 23.5 point underdogs vs FSU.
QB—At QB they are led by Jordan Travis (6’1 201) a Junior. Travis has looked superb this season completing over 65% of his passes for 24.14 yards (241 yards per game) with 20 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. He is good with his legs as well, carrying the ball 55 times for 246 yards and 3 TD’s on the ground. Travis has been really good, he has 7 games where he has thrown for over 200 yards and of those he has 2 that he has thrown for over 300. He also has 7 games with multiple TD passes, including 4 with 3 TD’s, including a loss to Wake and a win at Syracuse. He has really only had 1 bad game and that was to, at the time #14 ranked, NC State where he only completed 50% of his passes with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
RB—But they have not just been good through the air, they have been good on the ground as well. They have a multipronged attack, but most of it is led by Trey Benson (6’1 215) Sophomore who has 105 carries for 774 yards (that is 7.4 ypc average) and 5 TD’s. But he is not the only one. Treshaun Ward (5’10 192) has 77 carries for 501 yards (6.5 ypc average) and 3 TD’s and Lawrance Toafilli(6’0 195) who was expected to be the starter has 84 carries for 376 yards and 5 TD’s. As a team they are averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the ground with 21 TD’s. This team can run the ball and when they do it gives them a chance to throw the ball and that is when Jordan Travis is most dangerous. Toafilli is dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver as well. He has 22 catches for 246 yards and a TD catching the all and is their 4th leading receiver in yards and catches.
WR/TE—This team likes to spread it out all over the field. They have 7 guys with at least double digit receptions, but including Toafili (RB), they have 5 guys with at least 18 catches. The main target for Davis has been Johnny Wilson (6’7 225), yes 6’7” WR, he is a transfer from Arizona State and a good one. He has 33 receptions on the year for 649 yards and 5 TD’s. That leads the team in each of those categories. In all they have 11 players who have caught a TD pass. Ontaria Wilson (6’ 180) has 23 catches for 381 yards and 3 TD’s, while Mycah Pittman (5’11 205) has 28 catches for 305 yards and 3 TD’s. This team has a pair of very good TE’s but the main receiver is Camren McDonald (6’4 254) has 18 catches for 236 yards and 1 TD, while Markeston Douglass has 8 catches for 113 ayrds and 0 TD’s. The other WR’s on this roster that are dangerous are Kentron Poitier and Malik McClain.
OL—Big, physical, strong, athletic and experienced is the best way to describe this OL. The left side of the line is really good. Robert Scott (6’5 312) is a Redshirt Sophomore at LT who started 7 games as a Freshman and 11 games last year and each of the games this year. Next to is Dillan Gibbons (6’5 321) Senior at LG, who was a starting RG at Notre Dame for a few years, he is a Grad transfer. RG and RT are manned by two transfers as well, both Seniors. D’mitri Emmanuel (6’2 300) is a grad transfer from Charlotte at RG and Jazton Turnetine (6’7 336) is a Redshirt Senior transfer from both South Carolina and Hutchinson CC and at Center they start Maurice Smith a RS sophomore. A big loss for them early in the season was Bless Harris (6’5 315) who was projected as the starter at RG, he has been replaced by D’mitri Emmanuel listed above.
Offense—Balanced is how you would describe their offense. They through for roughly 263 yards per game and rush for 214 yards per game, that is nearly 500 yards per game in total offense. They are averaging 34 points per game. To show you exactly how balanced they are, they have 115 first downs on the ground and 106 first downs through the air and have 21 TD’s on the ground and 23 TD’s through the air. They have only given up 16 sacks in 10 games and are really good in the red zone, completing on 82% of their red zone conversions with 65% of those for TD’s. They have converted on nearly 50% of their 3rd down conversions as well.
DLine—This team plays a very multi look defense with players called “FOX” and “BUCK” to go with your traditional DE, DL, LB, CB and Safety positions. The Fox and Buck positions can move all over the field. But as far as your traditional 3 down lineman go Derrick McLendon will line up as a DE (6’4 255) and on the other side of him is Jared Verse at the “FOX” position (6’5 250). They lead the team from the DL in tackles with McLendon having 29 tackles with 3 sacks and Verse having 34 tackles with 6.5 sacks. Verse leads the team in sacks with about 22% of the teams’ sacks on the season coming from him. Between them will be Robert Cooper (6’2 338) and Fabien Lovett (6’4 310). Verse is a transfer from Albany and Lovett transferred in from Mississippi State. They will rotate a number of guys in and out of the DL including Patrick Payton, Dennis Briggs and Leonard Warner as well as Jarrett Jackson, Joshua Farmer and Malcolm Ray. They will go as many as 8-10 deep on the DL. So they always keep players fresh.
LB—So the above “FOX” position kind of acts like a DE/LB, then they have 2 actual LB positions, the Will and the Mike LB, at Will LB they will start Kalen DeLoach (6’1 211) and at Mike they will start Tatum Bethune (6’1 225). I will focus on these guys, because they are 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles. Bethune has 62 tackles on the season with 2.5 sacks and 1 INT, while DeLoach has 48 tackles on the season with 3 sacks. When you factor them in with Verse at the “FOX” position they are very good there. DJ Lundy will be a guy we will see quite a bit at LB filling in for them at the Will LB position. They are not super deep at LB, but between the starters and Lundy they are very good.
D-Backs—I mentioned the “FOX” position earlier, in the back half they have the “BUCK” position. This is another of those hybrid type positions for them. In some cases they will go with 5 DB’s and the “BUCK” depending on matchups. At CB we will see Omarion Cooper (6’0 186) and Renardo Green (6’0 189). They will also play a Nickel Back by the name of Kevin Knowles, Knowles is a special player and would most likely start at CB for most teams in the country. At safety you will see Jammie Robinson a transfer who was a 2 year starter at South Carolina and Akeem Dent. Dent was a highly recruited player out of HS. The other player to watch in the defensive backfield is Greedy Vance JR a transfer from Louisville who leads the team with 3 picks as a backup DB/NB. This is a team that is loaded with talent all over the defensive side of the ball.
DEFENSE—This is a solid team on the defensive side of the ball. They are only giving up 18 points per game on the season. And they are good against the run and the pass. They are giving up only 139 yards per game on the ground and only 155 through the air for a total of 294 yards per game. If there is a spot where they are not great it is turnover margin as a team. On the season the Seminoles have given up 12 turnovers (6 fumbles and 6 INT’s) while they have converted 13 turnovers (6 fumbles and 7 INT’s) for only a +1 in the turnover department. They will get after you at QB averaging roughly 3 sacks per game, the other weakness is converting in the red zone, this team is giving up 81% when teams reach the redzone, but only 50% of those are TD’s. The Cajuns are going to have to make sure that if and when they get into the redzone they come away with TD’s and not FG attempts and that is something that FSU has been stingy about this season.
Special Teams—Alex Mastromanno will do the punting, he has a 41.7-yard average, so not great. He only has a long of 53, with 3 touchbacks and 12 inside the 20. He has not had a kick blocked this season. Ryan Fitzgerald handles the kickoff and place-kicking duties for FSU. He is only 9-15 on the season on FG 0-2 from 50+, 2-4 from 30-39 and 3-4 from 40 -49 while going 4-5 from 20-29. So, he has had some struggles kicking the ball. His long is 47 yards. On kickoffs, 40 of his 58 have been touchbacks and 3 have been kicked out of bounds, so we might not see much of a return game against him as he only has 15 of his 58 have been returned.
Return Specialist—Mycah Pittman is the punt returner and he has been pretty good. He has 16 returns for 162 yards with a long of 34 yards and a 10.1 yard average. Sam McCall and Trey Benson have split the kickoff return duties. McCall has 8 on the season for 142 yards and a long of 24, while Benson has 4 returns for 167 yards and a 41.8 yards average with a long of 93 and that was a TD. Benson is a real threat back there.
My Prediction
Cajuns 10
Seminoles 44
Keys to the game for the Cajuns, they have to convert points when they get into the redzone, preferably TD’s, but they have to get something out of their possessions, because they will be few and far between. Establish some sort of running game building off of a really good game last week vs Georgia Southern. They have to get FSU off balance with a sussessful running game and short passes. I don’t think we are going to have a chance to go over the top vs them so we have to hit passes (screens, dumpoffs and quick throws vs them). The WR’s and TE blocking down field are going to be key to getting us some extra yards after catch. On defense we will have to be able to stop their ground attack, which is really good. I think we match up well in their passing game, but I have real concerns against their very good running game.
We have to get off the field on 3rd downs on defense and be able to convert our 3rd down opportunities. Field position is going to be another key, we can not lose the field position battle, we will have to flip the field where we have a chance, so it if is 4th and 3 on the 45, this probably will have to be a punting situation not a go for it time.
I am not saying we can’t win, but it is going to take a huge game in all 3 phases for us to have a chance. Ben is going to have to protect the ball and make good decisions. He can not turn it over.
Quote
Re: Ragin' Dave's FSU Breakdown
Originally Posted by BayouRichard
